Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Oppo]

Electoral system: Rosatellum (modified per reduction of MPs); Chamber: 245 PR, 147 FPTP, 8 Abroad; Senate: 122 PR, 74 FPTP, 4 Abroad (1 per each constituency); PR thresholds: 10% per coalitions, 3% per party list (1% to be included in the PR distribution) Linguistic minorites threshold (SVP in Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol) is 20% to be included in Chamber' PR distribution (in Senate, the South Tyrol will only elect by their 6 fixed FPTP seats)

Sorry for the dumb question, but does this mean that a party running on its own needs 3%, while a party running in a coalition needs 1% of the total vote to get PMs?
Also:
Are Az/+Eu a party list or a coalition for threshold purposes?
Is Giovanni Toti's outfit running with IV or is he seeking a path back to the centre right?
I was also wondering if some of the controversial politicians of the (not-so) distant past are still vying for relevancy or are they retired now: Gianfranco Fini and Nichi Vendola come to mind.

Vendola announced his return to active politics with the AVS
https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1572675614204727297?s=46&t=trbWO9lzi...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

With a 15 to 20-points lead? Probably around 95%. Maybe 90% if they account for the historical unreliability of Italian polls and the 2-weeks gap.

On that note though, a friend of mine is related to certain well-connected people who happen to have gotten their hands on an illegal poll. Mostly the numbers it shows aren't too different from those pre-09/10, but the main difference seems to be Lega losing and M5S gaining. So I guess that's the main place to look out for over- and underperformances this Sunday.

[MRCVzla]

I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

95% of centre-right majority according to Gianmarco Di Lella model (based mostly on pre-ban opinion polls): https://politiche2022.netlify.app/

They probably will close to the 2/3 supermajority (267 seats), still probably will have more than 200 seats bc being able to win a lot of FPTP seats thanks to the division of the non-right/Draghi+M5S camp, but like in 2018, the M5S could surprise in the South (Naples, Sicily).

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

With a 15 to 20-points lead? Probably around 95%. Maybe 90% if they account for the historical unreliability of Italian polls and the 2-weeks gap.

On that note though, a friend of mine is related to certain well-connected people who happen to have gotten their hands on an illegal poll. Mostly the numbers it shows aren't too different from those pre-09/10, but the main difference seems to be Lega losing and M5S gaining. So I guess that's the main place to look out for over- and underperformances this Sunday.

M5S around 15, Lega under 10, let's gooooo~

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

With a 15 to 20-points lead? Probably around 95%. Maybe 90% if they account for the historical unreliability of Italian polls and the 2-weeks gap.

On that note though, a friend of mine is related to certain well-connected people who happen to have gotten their hands on an illegal poll. Mostly the numbers it shows aren't too different from those pre-09/10, but the main difference seems to be Lega losing and M5S gaining. So I guess that's the main place to look out for over- and underperformances this Sunday.

M5S around 15, Lega under 10, let's gooooo~

They say some Swiss towns have even reached 17 constellations (85 stars I guess)...

[Mike88]

According to a "forbidden poll" conducted by BiDiMedia this week, no big changes compared with the last polls from two weeks ago:

https://twitter.com/ElElectoral/status/1573077474246021120

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-election-candidate-warning-ursula-von-der-leyen/

"Von der Leyen’s warning message to Italy irks election candidates"

Italian politicians asked European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen not to intervene in domestic politics after she warned that Europe has “the tools” to deal with Italy if things go in a “difficult direction.”

Seems like a dumb move and will only shift votes toward the Right Wing bloc or M5S.

[crals]

According to a "forbidden poll" conducted by BiDiMedia this week, no big changes compared with the last polls from two weeks ago:

https://twitter.com/ElElectoral/status/1573077474246021120

What a collapse for Lega and FI. Meloni is carrying the right on her back.

[Pres Mike]

Any hope the far right won't return to power?Any hope at all?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have a prediction that when the returns come tomorrow night the party map will look very much like 2019 but with all the green turned into dark blue (and with the orange eating into the blue somewhat up North and the blue eating into the yellow somewhat down South). The coalition map will of course be a more generalized sea of blue...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Any hope the far right won't return to power?Any hope at all?

The Right coalition is near-certain of victory at this point. The only question is if they will get the 2/3 supermajority to do what they want without referendum.

[jaichind]

When do the polls close and exit polls come out tomorrow?  I recall back in 2018 it was actually midnight Rome time.  Is that still the case this time around?

[Mike88]

When do the polls close and exit polls come out tomorrow?  I recall back in 2018 it was actually midnight Rome time.  Is that still the case this time around?

Polls close at 11PM, 10PM London time, and exit polls will start to be released at that same hour.

[MRCVzla]

When do the polls close and exit polls come out tomorrow?  I recall back in 2018 it was actually midnight Rome time.  Is that still the case this time around?

To add Mike88' post with this tweet with the estimate time when we get the exit/instant polls/first projections, Sicily regional election' ballots are the last to be counted in that region so their first projections and results will be known on Monday evening/night.
https://twitter.com/Antonio12I/status/1573666449968828416

Also election result site (Interior Ministry' Eligendo) is up: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

[DavidB.]

What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?

[jaichind]

What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?

I think they refused to be part of the PD alliance if the left-win AVS bloc is going to be part of the alliance so they are running separately. 

[Oryxslayer]

What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?

Renzi leads IV. I think that's all that needs to be known.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?

Azione is Carlo Calenda's personality party and Italia Viva is Matteo Renzi's personality party - they are running in a single list to avoid the risk of falling below the threshold and because both believe centrist liberalism is an actual ideology (although my perception is that Calenda has more of a yuppie manager vibe and Renzi more of a well-off pensioner for unspecified reform vibe).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?

Genepool DCs for rEfORm.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The thing is that the center right coalition might get 2/3rd majority, in which they would be able to make changes to Italy's constitution.

Also, the right wing coalition will definitely win barring a major polling error. Throughout history, M5S has been underpolled often. The left wing Democratic Party might be biggest party, but it likely won't and it seems like FdI got a bigger advantage over them compared to 2 weeks ago. At the end coalitions will matter, and the left failed to get united against a anti-right bloc. Even M5S and Democratic Party aren't in a coalition.

[Mike88]

Turnout updates: Turnout at 12pm seems to be stable in the North and Center, but low in the South.

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1573986150485823491

Overall, turnout at 12pm across the country stood at 19.1%, just minus 0.4% compared with 2018.

[Frodo]

An excellent summary on the state of the Italian election campaign:

Italy poised for glass ceiling-shattering vote, hard right turn

[rc18]

7pm turnout looks to be significantly down on 2018 everywhere, though particularly in the South where there is currently a storm. Presumably that'll hurt any M5S comeback.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Well, Little Miss Mussolini is going to win. Many European countries turn to the far-right isn't surprising.