Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

On another note, Azione and +Europa have joined together in a "federation" and can be considered for most intents and purposes a single entity now. The first opinion poll I saw with Azione-+Europa constituting a single option had it at around 5%. Calenda was confident that it can reach 10% - I would not be so sure, but mid single digits would already be a respectable showing.

'There are too many minor centrist parties in Italy. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot!'

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

They'll be lucky to even get 5%, especially if they stay out of any electoral coalition. Out-of-coalition small parties almost always underperform their polling.

We'll see. In the meantime I wonder how Renzi reacted to this news - I can't find anything on this. Speaking of whom, he made a total cope tweet about the Rome by-election (where his candidate got 13%) saying it shows The Owls And The Pundits the real strength of IV and that the polls which have it at 2% don't matter. I would hope that Renzi is not stupid enough to actually believe that and that it's all spin/propaganda but...

'There are too many minor centrist parties in Italy. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot!'

Well now we are down to two. I suppose we could get down to one in the not so distant future if IV and CI actually form their own "federation" as well, but who knows.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

About the presidential election: Berlusconi is still the favoured candidate of the centre-right bloc, despite his divisiveness (and none other than Renzi just stated in an interview he does not think Berlusconi has the numbers - also that they haven't talked since the last presidential election), while Draghi keeps being floated especially from the other side but more as an eventuality (among the various speculations, there is one of a large agreement to elect Draghi so as to make a new government where all party leaders would get a ministry, which sounds incredibly Italian). More dark-horse but still prominent candidates include Marta Cartabia, Giuliano Amato, Pier Ferdinando Casini, Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati, and even a second term of Sergio Mattarella (forget about that).

Right now I would expect a lot of abstentions in the first three rounds of voting, but otherwise I am ever wary of making predictions. The week that remains before the election could of course still scramble a lot of things.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

UPDATE!

Silvio Berlusconi just officially renounced to his candidacy for President of the Republic, inviting the centre-right coalition to find another common name. We have no certainty on who this name could be but I'd think Alberti Casellati is the most likely. The coalition also seems now unified in wanting to keep Draghi as President of the Council and preventing his election.

On the other side, the centre-left and M5S don't seem to have a real common alternative, except to keep attempting a deal on Draghi. Their main point is clearly wanting to avoid electing a President from the right, which they believe they have the numbers for.

[xelas81]

Is Mattarella's age (he is 80 years old) the only reason against his second term?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Is Mattarella's age (he is 80 years old) the only reason against his second term?

I wouldn't necessarily say so - Pertini, Ciampi and Napolitano were elected at similar ages. However Mattarella clearly seems to have no desire for another term, and re-electing a President of the Republic is something that is considered... not the norm for various reasons (chiefly among them that a single presidential term is already very long).

[Antonio the Sixth]

UPDATE!

Silvio Berlusconi just officially renounced to his candidacy for President of the Republic, inviting the centre-right coalition to find another common name. We have no certainty on who this name could be but I'd think Alberti Casellati is the most likely. The coalition also seems now unified in wanting to keep Draghi as President of the Council and preventing his election.

On the other side, the centre-left and M5S don't seem to have a real common alternative, except to keep attempting a deal on Draghi. Their main point is clearly wanting to avoid electing a President from the right, which they believe they have the numbers for.

Casellati would be a fine President honestly. Of course she made some biased decisions as president of the Senate, but that's really true of all presidents of a legislative chamber, and generally she's comported herself with great institutional dignity. And honestly, yeah, having a woman President would be nice at long last.

[FrancoAgo]

I would prefer Berlusconi to Casellati, that is not Casellati, Casellati is the husband

[Antonio the Sixth]

First Round results are in, and unsurprisingly it's a landslide for "Blank":

Blank 672
Paolo Maddalena 36
Sergio Mattarella 16
Marta Cartabia 9
Roberto Cassinelli 7
Antonio Tasso 6
Guido De Martini 6
Silvio Berlusconi 6
Ettore Rosato 5
Marco Cappato 5
Umberto Bossi 5
Others 154
Null 49
Didn't vote 32


Next vote tomorrow at 3pm.

[President Johnson]

Is Mattarella's age (he is 80 years old) the only reason against his second term?

I wouldn't necessarily say so - Pertini, Ciampi and Napolitano were elected at similar ages. However Mattarella clearly seems to have no desire for another term, and re-electing a President of the Republic is something that is considered... not the norm for various reasons (chiefly among them that a single presidential term is already very long).

I remember reading that it was a long standing tradition presidents don't seek second terms back in 2013 when Napolitano was standing for reelection in a difficult political situation. However, as already promised, he resigned during his second term.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Is Mattarella's age (he is 80 years old) the only reason against his second term?

I wouldn't necessarily say so - Pertini, Ciampi and Napolitano were elected at similar ages. However Mattarella clearly seems to have no desire for another term, and re-electing a President of the Republic is something that is considered... not the norm for various reasons (chiefly among them that a single presidential term is already very long).

I remember reading that it was a long standing tradition presidents don't seek second terms back in 2013 when Napolitano was standing for reelection in a difficult political situation. However, as already promised, he resigned during his second term.

Well indeed Napolitano was not really "standing for reelection" either - he only accepted his unprecedented reelection somewhat begrudgingly after a few inconclusive rounds, to break the deadlock.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

As a reference, the most voted candidate today, Paolo Maddalena, is a former judge of the constitutional court, and his support comes from various figures in the mixed group (mostly ex-M5S). He is to say the least not a famous figure - honestly I had no idea who he was before today - but apparently he has been chosen among other things because he is a strong critic of neoliberalism and supporter of public goods. Interesting for sure... [he stands approximately no chance obviously].

[Logical]

Has anyone tried nominating the Pope?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Has anyone tried nominating the Pope?

The current Pope is of course not eligible if anything because he is not an Italian citizen, although I am sure he'd be more popular than just about any alternative.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Today the centre-right is expected to publish a list of possible names for the presidency, which should include people such as Casellati, philosopher Marcello Pera, and former prosecutor Carlo Nordio (especially well-liked by FdI). Another name that has come up recently is former Minister of Foreign Affairs Franco Frattini, who is rumoured to be liked by both Salvini and Conte. I am less sure on what is happening on the centre-left but Letta just remarked we need an "Atlanticist" President in relation to the current news about Russia and Ukraine. In the actual round of voting we will in all likelihood see another landslide of blank ballots of course, although I do wonder whether more random electors will opt for Maddalena or Mattarella just because.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Today the centre-right is expected to publish a list of possible names for the presidency, which should include people such as Casellati, philosopher Marcello Pera, and former prosecutor Carlo Nordio (especially well-liked by FdI). Another name that has come up recently is former Minister of Foreign Affairs Franco Frattini, who is rumoured to be liked by both Salvini and Conte. I am less sure on what is happening on the centre-left but Letta just remarked we need an "Atlanticist" President in relation to the current news about Russia and Ukraine. In the actual round of voting we will in all likelihood see another landslide of blank ballots of course, although I do wonder whether more random electors will opt for Maddalena or Mattarella just because.

Someone ring up the Classical Liberal Atlanticist Mod Faction! One of them should run.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Today the centre-right is expected to publish a list of possible names for the presidency, which should include people such as Casellati, philosopher Marcello Pera, and former prosecutor Carlo Nordio (especially well-liked by FdI). Another name that has come up recently is former Minister of Foreign Affairs Franco Frattini, who is rumoured to be liked by both Salvini and Conte. I am less sure on what is happening on the centre-left but Letta just remarked we need an "Atlanticist" President in relation to the current news about Russia and Ukraine. In the actual round of voting we will in all likelihood see another landslide of blank ballots of course, although I do wonder whether more random electors will opt for Maddalena or Mattarella just because.

Someone ring up the Classical Liberal Atlanticist Mod Faction! One of them should run.

Al, for one, probably knows Italian political history better than some of the candidates who have been floated so far.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Second Round results:

Blank 527

Paolo Maddalena 39
Sergio Mattarella 39
Renzo Tondo 18
Roberto Cassinelli 17
Ettore Rosato 14
Umberto Bossi 12
Giancarlo Giorgetti 8
Luigi Manconi 8
Marta Cartabia 8
Giuseppe Moles 7
Silvio Berlusconi 7
Nicola Gratteri 6
Pier Luigi Bersani 6
Serafino Generoso 6
Cesare Pianasso 5
Others 213

Null 38

Didn't vote 31


Quite a few more votes this time around, but still all meaningless. Party leaders are still slowly working toward an agreement, and there should be a meeting tomorrow that might start resolving things. Still, who knows.

Tomorrow we'll have the third round of voting, which will be the final one to require a qualified 2/3rds majority. Starting with the fourth round, only a majority will be required. This should encourage parties to get a bit bolder.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Today the centre-right is expected to publish a list of possible names for the presidency, which should include people such as Casellati, philosopher Marcello Pera, and former prosecutor Carlo Nordio (especially well-liked by FdI).

The list has now been published and to my surprise there was no Casellati - the third name alongside Nordio and Pera was instead former mayor of Milan Letizia Moratti. But we'll have to see whether this is not just a tactical move to force the centre-left to take more specific stances.

[President Johnson]

Could there be an opening for Mario Draghi? At least his name was mentioned a few months ago and seems that he's widely popular to win a majority. But I guess he wants to stay on as prime minister?

[FrancoAgo]

The list has now been published and to my surprise there was no Casellati - the third name alongside Nordio and Pera was instead former mayor of Milan Letizia Moratti. But we'll have to see whether this is not just a tactical move to force the centre-left to take more specific stances.

to this 3 i prefer Berlusconi

[jeron]

The list has now been published and to my surprise there was no Casellati - the third name alongside Nordio and Pera was instead former mayor of Milan Letizia Moratti. But we'll have to see whether this is not just a tactical move to force the centre-left to take more specific stances.

to this 3 i prefer Berlusconi

Why?

[FrancoAgo]

The list has now been published and to my surprise there was no Casellati - the third name alongside Nordio and Pera was instead former mayor of Milan Letizia Moratti. But we'll have to see whether this is not just a tactical move to force the centre-left to take more specific stances.

to this 3 i prefer Berlusconi

Why?

because is a well known bastard, the others are less known but in deeply worst, already the fact that the 2 female use their husband surname...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Third Round, the last one that requited a 2/3rds majority. Once again it went nowhere though.

Blanks 412

Sergio Mattarella 125
Guido Crosetto 114
Paolo Maddalena 61
Pier Ferdinando Casini 52
Giancarlo Giorgetti 19
Luigi Manconi 8
Marta Cartabia 8
Pier Luigi Bersani 7
Umberto Bossi 7
Clemente Mastella 6
Marco Doria 6
Marco Cappato 6
Giuseppe Moles 6
Mario Draghi 5
Others 121

Null 22
Didn't vote 24

A few more people coming out of the woodwork, most of all the FdI and Lega contingent flexing a bit by converging on Crosetto, but that still means very little. Mattarella must no doubt be annoyed to be getting so many votes though.

The latest news is that Salvini is meeting with the eminent jurist Sabino Cassese, who on paper seems like an unimpeachable presidential candidate, but might have taken stances that put him at odds with Draghi. We'll see if anything comes out of it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obligatory