Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[njwes]

When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.

The latter is an incredibly important function on the Italian political scene right now. I don't even want to think about how much support Lega and FdI might be pulling without a non-fash #populist option for people to vote for.

Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.

Oh my, Michel Onfray says hello

The last thing you guys need is to start importing pretentious French pseudo-inellectual wankery

Is this the same Michel Onfray who ten or fifteen years ago tried to present himself as a sort of Continental Richard Dawkins?

Educate yourself on what fascism actually is, and stop saying "#fash" unless you're on the Red Scare subreddit plz.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.

The latter is an incredibly important function on the Italian political scene right now. I don't even want to think about how much support Lega and FdI might be pulling without a non-fash #populist option for people to vote for.

Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.

Oh my, Michel Onfray says hello

The last thing you guys need is to start importing pretentious French pseudo-inellectual wankery

Is this the same Michel Onfray who ten or fifteen years ago tried to present himself as a sort of Continental Richard Dawkins?

Educate yourself on what fascism actually is, and stop saying "#fash" unless you're on the Red Scare subreddit plz.

I've given talks on Holocaust theology at the postgraduate level, and do not need to be told this by some random blue avatar with less than 500 posts.

[CumbrianLefty]

OK, lets just never hear "Hitler/Nazis were left wing because they had SOCIALIST in their name" ever again from your side in return. Deal??

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Vito Crimi has announced that all the Deputies and Senators who abstained on the confidence motion will be expelled too just like those who voted No.

I just can't

And I am not even a supporter of those who voted No, mind you. I am just eight years full of the M5S appreciation of purges.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vito Crimi has announced that all the Deputies and Senators who abstained on the confidence motion will be expelled too just like those who voted No.

I just can't

And I am not even a supporter of those who voted No, mind you. I am just eight years full of the M5S appreciation of purges.

............

Yeah this is suicidal. The M5S groups have already lost, what, over a third of their former members? They won twice as many votes as Lega, but their parliamentary groups are almost identical in size. They're basically just hamstringing themselves.

[Flyersfan232]

I havent see meloni attack salvini at all centre right doing good cop bad cop with this?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I havent see meloni attack salvini at all centre right doing good cop bad cop with this?

Meloni is going to attack the government in general but presumably not Salvini specifically, and that's for the simple reason that she needs Salvini as an electoral ally.

Partially relatedly, Salvini is pushing to delay the local elections and the Calabria regional election to the fall, whereas Meloni is eager to vote in the spring.

[Flyersfan232]

I havent see meloni attack salvini at all centre right doing good cop bad cop with this?

Meloni is going to attack the government in general but presumably not Salvini specifically, and that's for the simple reason that she needs Salvini as an electoral ally.

Partially relatedly, Salvini is pushing to delay the local elections and the Calabria regional election to the fall, whereas Meloni is eager to vote in the spring.

question who will be the next president and is their likely a snap election next spring???

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I havent see meloni attack salvini at all centre right doing good cop bad cop with this?

Meloni is going to attack the government in general but presumably not Salvini specifically, and that's for the simple reason that she needs Salvini as an electoral ally.

Partially relatedly, Salvini is pushing to delay the local elections and the Calabria regional election to the fall, whereas Meloni is eager to vote in the spring.

question who will be the next president and is their likely a snap election next spring???

I have no idea who will be the next President of the Republic but if I had to spitball, I'd say Draghi or secondarily Cartabia. I would think a snap election in spring 2022 is pretty likely, yes.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Update #1 (national)

Super-important: it looks like Beppe Grillo has asked Giuseppe Conte to become a leader of the Five Star Movement and to help "refound" it. I am not exactly sure where this is going right now, but maybe we'll have a "Conte party" after all... lmao.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Update #2 (regional)

The date of the Calabria regional election is still set on April 11th, but it is hanging by a thread because it looks probable to be postponed again. I don't know what to say.

Forza Italia is proposing Deputy Roberto Occhiuto as centre-right candidate, which is interesting because last year they had pushed for his brother Mario, mayor of Cosenza, who of course was vetoed by Lega leading to the final candidacy of the late Jole Santelli. I don't know how Lega or FdI are reacting to Roberto this time.
PD is proposing regional councillor Nicola Irto, but I feel like the centre-left is in flux. I have no idea what M5S is doing.
In a masterful bit of "carpetbagging but not really" incumbent term-limited Naples mayor Luigi De Magistris, who also is a former prosecutor in Calabria (NB: he was indeed born and raised in Naples) has announced his candidacy. De Magistris notoriously was elected two times with a left-leaning anti-PD coalition. Here he has just received the support of Carlo Tansi, a guy who ran with a civic list in 2020.
In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Update #1 (national)

Super-important: it looks like Beppe Grillo has asked Giuseppe Conte to become a leader of the Five Star Movement and to help "refound" it. I am not exactly sure where this is going right now, but maybe we'll have a "Conte party" after all... lmao.

It seems like Conte still favors close cooperation with PD? In that case this looks like there isn't much danger of support being pulled from the government.

ETA: Yep, Financial Times reports that he has a mandate from Grillo to convert M5S into a more mainstream political force with permanent ties to the center-left.

[Estrella]

In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

People who like when someone YELLS VERY LOUDLY ON THE TELLY, perhaps?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It seems like Conte still favors close cooperation with PD? In that case this looks like there isn't much danger of support being pulled from the government.

ETA: Yep, Financial Times reports that he has a mandate from Grillo to convert M5S into a more mainstream political force with permanent ties to the center-left.

Pulling support from the government is not a problem in any case.

The first thing he should do if the point is to convert M5S in a "mainstream" force would be to sack Grillo (and Crimi, and arguably Di Maio). Then rewrite entirely the party's statute and hopefully change the name too.

In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

People who like when someone YELLS VERY LOUDLY ON THE TELLY, perhaps?

CAPRA! SEI UNA CAPRA IGNORANTE!

[njwes]

When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.

How about now? 

[njwes]

Apologies if this was addressed way back in the post, but if the next election produces a right-wing majority and FI, Lega, and FdI agree to form a government (which I'm assuming they would) how much could such a government actually get done and accomplish? I understand that they're both* positioned as "right-wing" and populist-y (maybe more accurate for FdI than Lega) and that they've both positioned themselves as somewhat anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal--finding the right terminology here is tricky lol--but how much common ground actually exists between them in terms of reforms, laws, regulations, policy etc that they wish to enact (or maybe repeal)?

*Using "both" because I assume that FI wouldn't have a ton of say in a right-wing government's actual policy, but I could be totally wrong.

1. Forza Italia would not have a ton to say but it would have still a bit to say (in part because most likely its support would be decisive for such a government, just like the support of Italia Viva was decisive for Conte II).

2. Actually it is Lega that has the more populist-y posturing (and more downscale electorate), even though Fratelli d'Italia is likely a bit more populist/interventionist on concrete policy.

3. I think they share enough common ground to pass, or try to pass, quite a substantive agenda, but I would guess that a big hurdle may arise when the topic of regionalism comes up, to make an obvious example. There may be some attrition on some soshul ishoos as well, but it's unclear.*

4. I know what you are trying to get at by "anti-neoliberal" but it's never a bad day to remind that using the original definition of the word the Italian right-wing is, well, pretty neoliberal.

*it would be absolutely hilarious if, while in government together, Salvini tried to give some concreteness to his pipe dream of reopening brothels and Meloni destroyed his proposal playing the #feminist card

Sorry for being late on this but thanks so much for this--I clearly had a lot of misconceptions! Very interesting stuff. Following up on a few of these points:

#2: I'm actually shocked that Lega has the more downscale electorate! Does that mean then that FdI's core voters are more firmly middle class, maybe petit bourgeois types? And, who does the downscale electorate in Southern Italy vote for? The PD? Maybe a combination of that and 5Star, and just turning out less?

#3: Well that's sort of what I was getting at, what would that "substantial agenda" actually BE? If not regionalism, and not EU-related, and maybe not much on economics, what exactly? And the same re: social issues--I imagine that it would be difficult for them to even do a tightening up of abortion regulation, for instance.

#4: I hate the term neoliberalism and I'm aware that "anti-neoliberal" is even more of a nightmare lol. I wish I could stop using it when I think about politics but it's often just so useful. That's why I used "anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal", just trying to paint a picture. I wish there was a less muddy terminology, but the closest thing I could think of in the Anglo-Saxon tradition for those stances would probably be something like "traditionalist conservatism" which is itself a difficult and contentious term and more importantly doesn't actually seem to describe Lega (maybe it's more fitting for some segments of FdI, I'm not sure).

Last thing: the changing of your avatar deeply startled me 😂 Thanks for all the good work you do here.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.

How about now? 

It remains to be seen, but there's no reason why it can't keep doing those things (unless Conte transforms it into a woketariat party, but that would be incredibly difficult and stupid).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Sorry for being late on this but thanks so much for this--I clearly had a lot of misconceptions! Very interesting stuff. Following up on a few of these points:

#2: I'm actually shocked that Lega has the more downscale electorate! Does that mean then that FdI's core voters are more firmly middle class, maybe petit bourgeois types? And, who does the downscale electorate in Southern Italy vote for? The PD? Maybe a combination of the
and 5Star, and just turning out less?

#3: Well that's sort of what I was getting at, what would that "substantial agenda" actually BE? If not regionalism, and not EU-related, and maybe not much on economics, what exactly? And the same re: social issues--I imagine that it would be difficult for them to even do a tightening up of abortion regulation, for instance.

#4: I hate the term neoliberalism and I'm aware that "anti-neoliberal" is even more of a nightmare lol. I wish I could stop using it when I think about politics but it's often just so useful lol. That's why I used "anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal", just trying to paint a picture. I wish there was a less muddy terminology, but the closest thing I could think of in the Anglo-Saxon tradition for those stances would probably be something like "traditionalist conservatism" which is itself a difficult and contentious term and more importantly doesn't actually seem to describe Lega (maybe it's more fitting for some segments of FdI, I'm not sure.

Last thing: the changing of your avatar deeply startled me 😂 Thanks for all the good work you do here.

#2 Yes, the FdI core voters are the ones you mentioned plus some old money Rich Catholic types - which after all is the same kind of people who used to vote MSI.* The electorate in Southern Italy is all downscale to begin with compared to Northern Italy, but for the downscale of the downscale, you are looking at a pretty fragmented situation - rural villages in the South can be completely random sometimes - but yes, generally big on M5S, and low turnout.

#3 Immigration and muh law and order surely, probably an infrastructure plan, criminal justice reform if it does not pass sooner, something about pensions and taxes (hopefully not the flat tax but who knows), probably whatever pro-family economic policies FdI puts forward, and vague protectionist stuff, for instance. Actually I think they are still fairly in sync on the EU too.

#4 "Traditionalist conservatism" has somewhat seeped into Lega as well with Salvini I'd say, but it is more fitting for FdI, yes. Lega to me is mostly liberal conservatism and nationalism mixed up in a #populist fashion. I recognize that in the end labels are not particularly useful though.

*compare this: https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-liguria-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
I had already linked to this series of maps. It's the 2020 regional election in Liguria, which I am using because Genoa has a fairly starkly identifiable 'favoured quarter', is in the North, and the election was relatively competitive. If you look at the map by quartieri you can see Lega does worst in the rich east coast, whereas FdI does best in the same area (especially in the near east coast, the richest part of all).

[Estrella]

In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

People who like when someone YELLS VERY LOUDLY ON THE TELLY, perhaps?

CAPRA! SEI UNA CAPRA IGNORANTE!

And you only talk about the dead because you need the dead so you can pretend to be alive is prime song lyric material.

The other one is just... well, a highly intellectual debate about dialectics, moralism and vaguely Freudian armchair psychoanalysis about "eternal return to a state of infantility" that quickly devolves into a shouting match full of insults about how the other guy is a spoiled brat who's never accomplished anything and speaks a dead language and has no taste because "that's the tragedy of doctor's sons" or that he's a GOAT! GOAT! GOAT!, all, of course, joined together with lots and lots of gesticulation and swearwords, and then out of the blue there's a surreal segue to skimpily dressed girls dancing to cheery pop music and the guy who was arguing just seconds ago jumps out of his chair and starts hopping and dancing all over the studio... that's just pure, distilled Italianness. Forget Dante and da Vinci and Vivaldi, this is your national heritage.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In a masterful bit of "carpetbagging but not really" incumbent term-limited Naples mayor Luigi De Magistris, who also is a former prosecutor in Calabria (NB: he was indeed born and raised in Naples) has announced his candidacy. De Magistris notoriously was elected two times with a left-leaning anti-PD coalition. Here he has just received the support of Carlo Tansi, a guy who ran with a civic list in 2020.

Huh, weird move. He must be desperate to escape the ire of his arch-enemy De Luca.

I used to like De Magistris but he's proven himself an incompetent buffoon during the COVID crisis. He'll almost certainly go down in flames.

In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

oh God please no

Speaking of buffoons...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Let us suppose we have not heard of this Vittorio Sgarbi. Tell us of him.

[Estrella]

lmaoooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1366489962745651205

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Let us suppose we have not heard of this Vittorio Sgarbi. Tell us of him.

He was born almost seventy years ago in Ferrara and has had a successful career as university professor and art critic. At some point he started getting invited to TV shows to make divulgative art lessons... and he became rapidly a TV personality, notorious for having fiery opinions on his area of expertise and yelling and swearing a lot, especially against others. Then he decided to enter politics, switching around parties and/or regions faster than a spinning top. And this is how he has been for, what, more than thirty years.
Most people know him more for being the art critic who both can make engaging lessons and behaves like a buffoon at talk shows and picks fights with all sorts of other people, especially renowned is his favourite insult "YOU'RE IGNORANT AS A GOAT!" but I think his political career is possibly even more hilarious.
Before a wall of text about that which will take another post, let me just add that he has affirmed many times of being atheist, and some times of being Catholic, and that some time ago he was involved in my city's matters when he tried to stop the renovation of a central square, which he considered artistically heinous apparently.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Vittorio Sgarbi's political career!
NB: I am probably missing something.

- A self described liberal.
- Despite not living in the Marche at all, in 1990 he accepted a PCI candidacy for the municipal council of Pesaro, then backed down and accepted one for the PSI in the small town of San Severino Marche, where he was elected.
- Between 1992 and 1993 he even became mayor of the latter town thanks to DC and MSI votes (mayors were not elected directly in Italy back then)...
- ...but in the meantime he had been elected Deputy with PLI at the 1992 election [in Sardinia]!
- In 1994 he was re-elected Deputy with Forza Italia [in Calabria] but he spent all the legislature sitting in the mixed group.
- In 1996 again he was elected to the Chamber in the FI lists [in Friuli-Venezia Giulia] but inscribed in the mixed group.
- In 1999 he briefly stopped his crazy wandering and ran for mayor of his hometown of Ferrara and for MEP from the North-East, both with Forza Italia. He was only elected to the latter.
- He left Bruxelles when in 2001 he was again re-elected Deputy with FI [in Veneto].
- He became Undersecretary of Cultural Heritage in the Berlusconi II government but he had, uhm, strong opinions on the matter and he was removed from the post after a year.
- Sgarbi then ran in the 2004 European election with whatever was left of the PRI (not even came close to being elected).
- In 2005 he switched to the centre-left and decided to run in the 2006 parliamentary election with a small centre-left list, but this time his luck ran out...
- ...but he also stipulated an agreement with the centre-right candidate for mayor of Milan, and when she was elected he became assessore [i.e. member of the municipal executive] for cultural heritage.
- In 2008 he was removed from the post but he did a honey badger move and just ran for mayor of the Sicilian village of Salemi with a centrist coalition and was elected.
- He resigned from that in 2012 and then the municipal administration was dissolved and commissioned because apparently some of the people who had supported his candidacy were using him as a cover and were doing affairs with the mafia behind his back.
- He then ran for mayor of another Sicilian town, Cefalù, in the same year, without getting elected.
- He spent the following years flipping between various assessore offices around the country.
- In 2017 he founded his own political movement called Rinascimento [Renaissance], and also had an upgrade to member of a regional executive, being nominated assessore of cultural heritage of Sicily.
- It only lasted some months because in 2018 he came back home and ran for Deputy with Forza Italia. He ran in a single-member constituency in Campania, where he was destroyed by the M5S tide (precisely by Luigi Di Maio himself lmao), but also in the proportional lists... in the Modena-Ferrara constituency finally! He was elected from the latter.
- In 2018 he also ran for mayor of the small town of Sutri in Lazio, because of course he did, and won. He then - surprise surprise - switched from FI to the mixed group in the Chamber.
- In 2020 he was the FI list leader in the Emilia-Romagna regional election. He was elected but never took his seat because he preferred to remain in Parliament.

In this very moment Vittorio Sgarbi is the mayor of Sutri, and a member of the Chamber of Deputies.
He is also a murmured 2021 candidate for a) mayor of Rome b) mayor of Milan c) president of Calabria.
Of course, as you can guess he spends way more time explaining art and going to talk shows than administering Sutri. However one notable thing he did is that apparently he tried to ban mask wearing in Sutri last August *eyeroll*

EDIT: Forgot to add that apparently in 2018 his reasoning for moving to the mixed group again was "I invited Silvio to Sutri to celebrate my election but he didn't come. Hrumph ".

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Amazing. He sounds like a true Italian original, in the way that Ozawa Ichiro is a true Japanese original.