Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just thinking this morning what I'd do if I was an Italian leftist. Probably kill myself rather than face the kafkaesque trap they're in of a choice between permanent deflationary politics tied to dead hand Bundesbankers or an incredibly painful economic transition out of the Eurozone that would probably require alliance with literal fascists.

I suppose the current strategy of praying that a pro-fiscal expansion coalition manages to take over Europe has some merit given the other options, but Christ...

Well, hello, I'm and Italian leftist, and while I'm pretty doomer about things I wouldn't necessarily be that doomer. I don't think the barriers for leftist action within the EU are necessarily any worse than those for leftist action in the US. The EU has genuinely changed pretty significantly over the past few years in its attitude to economic policy (Mario Draghi being a big reason why). Of course it's not enough, but it shows there is a way forward there.

And while even as late as 2 years ago I might have felt differently, right now I think it's clear that the threat of fascism is more advanced in the US than it is in Italy. There are a few simple things that could be done that could defuse that threat significantly (mainly, making the electoral system proportional and electing a liberal President), and overall the strength of our institutions as well as the natural entropy of Italian politics makes consolidating power very difficult.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

As far as I was able to reckon the vote has just been slightly postponed. The Five Star Movement will end up doing whatever its powers that be want it to do, which most likely is joining the government coalition.

[TheSaint250]

So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.

[TheSaint250]

So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.

Wow, that's pretty surprising. Haven't been following it really closely, so why is Lega looking to support Draghi?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.

Wow, that's pretty surprising. Haven't been following it really closely, so why is Lega looking to support Draghi?

Gotta be part of the clique that's going to spend those sweet, sweet EU bucks.

In all seriousness, I'm not entirely sure what Salvini is thinking here. I guess he's seen that being in opposition for the past year or so didn't work out for him like he'd hoped, so maybe he's trying to recapture the magic of the yellow-green government (although the practical situation will be very different). There is also still a pro-business (and thus pro-EU) wing within the party, so perhaps he's afraid of alienating it too much.

[Oryxslayer]

So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.

Wow, that's pretty surprising. Haven't been following it really closely, so why is Lega looking to support Draghi?

Gotta be part of the clique that's going to spend those sweet, sweet EU bucks.

In all seriousness, I'm not entirely sure what Salvini is thinking here. I guess he's seen that being in opposition for the past year or so didn't work out for him like he'd hoped, so maybe he's trying to recapture the magic of the yellow-green government (although the practical situation will be very different). There is also still a pro-business (and thus pro-EU) wing within the party, so perhaps he's afraid of alienating it too much.

Or maybe he wants to ensure the technocratic government gets set up so he can attack it as an unresponsive tool of insiders...despite him backing it of course. There's also the thought that he wants to delay elections to a period when PD is out of govt, cause Lega had a bigger lead and PD was doing worse when he was the junior partner - though that is ignorant of a bunch of other developments since then. Or he just doesn't want a vote now during Corona.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.

Wow, that's pretty surprising. Haven't been following it really closely, so why is Lega looking to support Draghi?

Because they want the power.

Also, as Antonio said, probably Salvini sees this as an opportunity to assecondate business concerns.

Personally I think this will work out for Lega's prospects as well as its recent period in opposition, that is to say not very.

Or maybe he wants to ensure the technocratic government gets set up so he can attack it as an unresponsive tool of insiders...despite him backing it of course. There's also the thought that he wants to delay elections to a period when PD is out of govt, cause Lega had a bigger lead and PD was doing worse when he was the junior partner - though that is ignorant of a bunch of other developments since then. Or he just doesn't want a vote now during Corona.

No. If that were his objective he wouldn't be applying for a hecking Ministry in the very government.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Just thinking this morning what I'd do if I was an Italian leftist. Probably kill myself rather than face the kafkaesque trap they're in of a choice between permanent deflationary politics tied to dead hand Bundesbankers or an incredibly painful economic transition out of the Eurozone that would probably require alliance with literal fascists.

I suppose the current strategy of praying that a pro-fiscal expansion coalition manages to take over Europe has some merit given the other options, but Christ...

Well, hello, I'm and Italian leftist, and while I'm pretty doomer about things I wouldn't necessarily be that doomer. I don't think the barriers for leftist action within the EU are necessarily any worse than those for leftist action in the US. The EU has genuinely changed pretty significantly over the past few years in its attitude to economic policy (Mario Draghi being a big reason why). Of course it's not enough, but it shows there is a way forward there.

ECB turning on the spigots with quantitative easing just about saved the Eurozone from another sovereign debt crisis, you're right. And the €750 billion coronabonds are welcome, if largely for the principle established for future packages. But consider this: the US did a $2.2 trillion stimulus in March last year, then an additional $900 billion in the lame duck omnibus, and is now about to pass another $1.9 trillion stimulus package soon. Where do the economic goals of the left (full employment giving greater bargaining power and more robust wage growth for labour over capital)  look brighter given that gulf in government action?

https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1352999427334660096

The real worry is that the Eurozone continues to gives Italy and similar economies just enough to not explode in a debt crisis but not enough to help break it out of a death spiral of poor economic performance and emigration. Is there any prospect of northern economies agreeing to do what needs to be done on that score? Certainly not absent a real crisis that threatens the Eurozone itself like 2011, and by then it might be too late.

I agree though that the Republican Party is becoming overtly anti-democratic in a terrifying way not mirrored in Europe.

[Flyersfan232]

so Iv e+ azonia arent going to make anything??? would be a way for renzi to survived. and could this techocratic pm make a party of his own last the last one did

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

so Iv e+ azonia arent going to make anything??? would be a way for renzi to survived. and could this techocratic pm make a party of his own last the last one did

Probably not to both questions.

Draghi may well be elected President of the Republic in 2022 instead (which would be much much better than founding a liberal party that becomes irrelevant after a couple years like Dini and Monti did).

[Coldstream]

Surely Salvini is handing Meloni a huge, unnecessary, win by allowing her to be only opposition? Unless he thinks he’ll be able to wield the same power he did in Conte I.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Surely Salvini is handing Meloni a huge, unnecessary, win by allowing her to be only opposition? Unless he thinks he’ll be able to wield the same power he did in Conte I.

Or unless he thinks that a Meloni government would be better than a Salvini government by virtue of him having fewer official responsibilities to take.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

M5S online voters back Draghi 59-41.

[Coldstream]

Surely Salvini is handing Meloni a huge, unnecessary, win by allowing her to be only opposition? Unless he thinks he’ll be able to wield the same power he did in Conte I.

Or unless he thinks that a Meloni government would be better than a Salvini government by virtue of him having fewer official responsibilities to take.

Salvini out here playing 6D chess and I’m playing dominoes.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Also, to be clear, even if Salvini starts throwing Lega's weight around within a Draghi Cabinet, it's still enormously preferable on both institutional and policy grounds to a new election that the centrodestra would almost certainly storm home in, right?

[Diouf]

M5S online voters back Draghi 59-41.

Di Battista is leaving the party. We will see how big the split will be

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Also, to be clear, even if Salvini starts throwing Lega's weight around within a Draghi Cabinet, it's still enormously preferable on both institutional and policy grounds to a new election that the centrodestra would almost certainly storm home in, right?

Well, I think the answer is self-obvious. There is approximately zero chance a Draghi government becomes a trazione leghista, realistically.

M5S online voters back Draghi 59-41.

Di Battista is leaving the party. We will see how big the split will be

Probably unsubstantial, unless he founds a new party himself. And even then, I am skeptical.

[Former President tack50]

Lmao so Italy now has the peak meme government of Lega-M5S-PD?

[Estrella]

Lmao so Italy now has the peak meme government of Lega-M5S-PD?

Salvini and Grillists, led by literally former president of ECB. Try going back in time to, I don't know, the peak of Renzimania, tell this to people and watch their heads explode.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Lmao so Italy now has the peak meme government of Lega-M5S-PD?

"One is a racist would-be whoremonger with a Dorito-trap 'beard' who thinks he is literally more Catholic than the Pope. One is a bald Roman Jew who is so averse to taking the top job himself that he doesn't even have a seat in Parliament. Together, they fight COVID!"

[Logical]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/world/europe/italy-renzi-interview.html
The narcissism in this lmao

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, these past few weeks have provided fresh new fuel for the "Only in Italy" memes.

What's going to happen within M5S in the coming months will be interesting. Lots of simmering tensions coming to a head (Di Battista is the visible face of it, but lurking in the background is the question of the Movement's relationship with the Casaleggio Associati corporation - the Casaleggio scion doesn't seem to be happy with where the Movement has been going lately). Maybe they'll manage to sweep it under the rug again, but we'll see.

The coolest feature of this new government is that it will have such an ample majority that no single party (not even M5S with its massive parliamentary groups) can bring it down on its own, like Salvini did with Conte I and Renzi did with Conte II. This mean no brinkmanship this time: if one coalition partner isn't happy with what Draghi is doing, he can shut them up and dare them to leave and risk political isolation. This puts Draghi in a stronger position than Conte ever was, of course, but it will also make parliamentary dynamics potentially more powerful. It will be interesting, for example, to see if we find differing majorities on specific issues.

[Estrella]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/world/europe/italy-renzi-interview.html
The narcissism in this lmao

Confirms that the best description of Renzi I could come up with is "an energetic moron". This served him well when he was - as a politician who was a complete opposite of his in every way once put it - not exactly living in a world of giants. But there's only so much you can accomplish with that and when he needed actual strategic thinking, well...