Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I would like to mention that a few days ago a poll came out which was the first one in more than two years and a half not to have Lega in first place, and also likely the first one ever to have Fratelli d'Italia above Lega, although both hard right parties were below PD. This was somewhat of an outlier of course, for the Democratic Party in particular, but it is symbolic. At this point I expect to see polls with FdI as the first party pretty soon. This is liable to have a significant effect within the right wing.

And so it has happened. In the last couple days we have gotten a poll with Lega and Fratelli d'Italia tied for first place, and then one with FdI leading if only by a tenth of a percentage point, for the first time ever. This is historic, although what will come next remains to be seen. Still the rise of Giorgia Meloni continues.

salvini pulls out of the draghl government?

No, I don't think that's going to happen. Lega has decided to try and play from the inside and have a direct influence on government policy and it seems to me it would be unsound to leave now.

[Former President tack50]

From 1 to 100, how this modern PSI is just a corruption-nepotist scheme and not a real, left-wing political party? (inb4 all Italian political parties are corruption schemes).

If you mean Riccardo Nencini's PSI, I don't believe it is meaningfully left-wing or a meaningful party at all, but I have no idea how corrupt it is.

I guess the point is that in order to be corrupt you need to get into power first there

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

From 1 to 100, how this modern PSI is just a corruption-nepotist scheme and not a real, left-wing political party? (inb4 all Italian political parties are corruption schemes).

If you mean Riccardo Nencini's PSI, I don't believe it is meaningfully left-wing or a meaningful party at all, but I have no idea how corrupt it is.

I guess the point is that in order to be corrupt you need to get into power first there

Well, you can be corrupt even having one town councillor on your side tbh

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The Five Star Movement is being subject to a big infighting between its founder Beppe Grillo and Giuseppe Conte, who joined the party after leaving the Presidency of the Council. Also, Salvini and Meloni today both signed a document that has been described as a "charter of European souverainists" together with all other parties affiliated with the ECR and I&D European Parliament groups plus Fidesz.

We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

[Conservatopia]

We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

Let them eat panettone.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

Let them eat panettone.

I had a feeling someone would make a pun about her name...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

...and her candidacy was extremely short-lived. Ventura renounced a few days ago, and the Calabrian centre-left has to be in chaos now.

Meanwhile Michetti seems to have taken a bigger lead in recent polls of Rome, and one of these days I should make a comprehensive post about the municipal elections of all other major cities who go to the poll this year.

[Conservatopia]

We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

...and her candidacy was extremely short-lived. Ventura renounced a few days ago, and the Calabrian centre-left has to be in chaos now.

Coincidentally Marie Antoinette also got cut short.

[Estrella]

We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

...and her candidacy was extremely short-lived. Ventura renounced a few days ago, and the Calabrian centre-left has to be in chaos now.

Coincidentally Marie Antoinette also got cut short.

Can't believe people keep telling these stale puns thinking they're something revolutionary.

[PSOL]

If I was an Italian voter I would abstain from voting in this joke of a political climate. I say this knowing that a right-wing government is on the door, but given Italy is ungovernable I doubt they last long.

All of Italy’s political establishment is junk, complete junk. The actual Italian left is a complete failure for not organizing a cohesive ticket together.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And of course, the Calabrian election keeps having twists and turns!

The centre-left and M5S coalition has settled on neurologist Amalia Bruni as their candidate, our old friend Carlo Tansi has decided to retire his candidacy and support Bruni, Italia Viva's Ernesto Magorno has also retired his candidacy but the new plans of Renzi's party have not been announced yet, and Fratelli d'Italia is now moaning about Occhiuto and potentially threatening centre-right unity.

Meanwhile, the rift in the national M5S seems to have been closed, and I am still procrastinating on making an effortpost about non-Rome mayoral races.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If I was an Italian voter I would abstain from voting

Good.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Election Day 2021 has been officially announced: voting will be held on October 3rd (Sunday) and October 4th (Monday). Time for a yuuuge recollection post!
In addition, municipal runoffs, which happen between the top two mayoral candidates in case no one received an absolute majority of the votes, will be held on October 17th and 18th.


REGIONAL ELECTIONS

CALABRIA
This election is being held just one year (well, one year and a half) after the previous one because the Regional President elected in 2020, Jole Santelli from Forza Italia, died unexpectedly last October due to cancer complications. The main candidates are:

1. Roberto Occhiuto, Deputy for Forza Italia. Supported by a broad centre-right coalition.
2. Amalia Bruni, neurologist with no previous political experience. Supported by much of the centre-left and by M5S.
3. Luigi De Magistris, incumbent mayor of Naples (who cannot by law seek another term) and former assistant prosecutor for the judicial district of Catanzaro. Supported by an array of civic lists with a mostly leftist orientation.

_{Polling for the race is scarce and kind of unreliable but it seems clear that Occhiuto has the advantage. I would be rather surprised to see him lose, barring unforeseen developments.}


MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

As with every year, there will be local elections in a sizable share of Italian municipalities. This year is particularly important because among those who vote are included all of the four largest cities in Italy (Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin), in addition to another one of the top ten (Bologna). I will limit myself to covering these ones for now, as my time and energy and interest are constrained.

ROME
Incumbent mayor Virginia Raggi (M5S) was elected in 2016 in a runoff landslide, but she is currently quite unpopular and may not even reach the runoff this year. I have already gone over the candidates here:

1. Roberto Gualtieri, Deputy for the single-member Roma Centro/Trionfale constituency and former Minister of the Economy and Finance. Supported by PD and various other minor left and centre-left parties.
2. Enrico Michetti, lawyer and law professor, with no previous active political experience. Supported by FI, Lega, FdI - the entire centre-right coalition.
3. Virginia Raggi, incumbent mayor. Supported by M5S.
4. Carlo Calenda, member of the European Parliament and former Minister for Economic Development. Supported by Azione, Italia Viva and +E.

_{The most recent polls now have Michetti clearly leading in the first round, with Gualtieri second, Raggi third and Calenda fourth. The likely runoff is still between Michetti and Gualtieri - the latter is quite less sure of reaching it, but should he do that he is also in a significantly better position to win.}

MILAN
Incumbent mayor Giuseppe Sala (centre-left independent) was only narrowly elected in a runoff in 2016, but he has strong chances of re-election. The main candidates are:

1. Giuseppe Sala, incumbent mayor. Supported by a broad centre-left coalition.
2. Luca Bernardo, pediatrician with no previous political experience. Supported by a broad centre-right coalition.
3. Elena Sironi, member of the local council of Milan's Municipio 4. Supported by the M5S. Well, technically she has been indicated by the activist base but not yet officialized by the high ranks i.e. Conte, but I doubt she will be rejected.

_{I mentioned Sironi (or whoever the M5S candidate will end up being) mostly for completeness, as all polls broadly agree in having Sala and Bernardo in the 40's with M5S in the single digits, in percentage terms. Thus Sala and Bernardo are the only ones with a real chance to a win, although in all certainty the result will be decided in a runoff, where the Five Stars' and other minor candidates' supporters might tip the balance. As a side note, among the flurry of minor candidates I should at least mention noted personality Gianluigi Paragone, whom I had dedicated a post to a while ago.}

NAPLES
Incumbent mayor Luigi De Magistris is unable to run again as noted above. The notable candidates are:

1. Gaetano Manfredi, former rector of the University of Naples and former Minister of University. Supported by much of the centre-left and by M5S, with strong endorsements from the likes of Vincenzo De Luca and Giuseppe Conte (the latter of which has just been forcefully denying rumours that he is going to run for this position as well).
2. Catello Maresca, assistant prosecutor for the judicial district of Naples, although he has been in... leave of absence since officializing his candidacy. Supported by the centre-right coalition.
3. Antonio Bassolino, already mayor of Naples during the 1990's, but also President of Campania during the 2000's, in both cases the first person to be directly elected to the office; he had also been a Deputy and Minister of Labour; always on the left (PCI -> PDS -> DS -> PD) but has been an independent since 2017. Supported by civic lists on the left, but also surprisingly endorsed by Carlo Calenda and his Azione.
4. Alessandra Clemente, member of the De Magistris municipal administration who has just resigned to concentrate on her mayoral candidacy. Supported by De Magistris's personal party (DemA) of course, so in a leftist or progressive area.

_{Polling suggests that Manfredi is solidly in first place, not far from clearing the 50% majority and winning in the first round but also not quite there yet. Maresca is in second and appears to have ample margin over Bassolino, third, and Clemente, fourth. Even if a runoff is needed, I think Manfredi is the clear favourite.}

TURIN
Incumbent mayor Chiara Appendino (M5S) was elected in 2016 in a way not dissimilar from her Roman counterpart. However she self-suspended from the party and declined to run for re-election last year after a conviction for fraudulently producing an inaccurate budget. Here are the main candidates to replace her:

1. Paolo Damilano, enterpreneur, once again someone from outside the political world. Supported by the centre-right coalition.
2. Stefano Lo Russo, city council member for PD. Supported by the centre-left coalition.
3. Valentina Sganga, city council member for M5S. Supported by M5S and by the incumbent administration of course.

_{The polling situation appears very similar to that in Milan, except in this case the centre-right has a clear if slight edge, and the M5S should do a bit better.}

BOLOGNA
Incumbent Virginio Merola (PD) is barred from running for re-election a second time, like De Magistris. The city has always been a stronghold for the left/centre-left, and while this surprisingly broke at the municipal level once in 1999, there is next to no chance of this happening this year. The two main contenders are:

1. Matteo Lepore, former member of the Merola administration. Supported by all the centre-left and M5S.
2. Fabio Battistini, another enterpreneur. Supported by the centre-right coalition.

_{As I said, Lepore is a clear favourite, and may very well win in the first round, with some polls already putting him over 50%.}


PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS

There will be two by-elections to first-past-the-post seats in the Chamber of Deputies as well. One of them is unlikely to attract significant attention at all, but the other is different. As a disclaimer I cannot find polls for either of them.

TUSCANY - 12 (SIENA)
Seat left open when Pier Carlo Padoan (PD) resigned to join the board of directors of the Unicredit bank group. Pretty significant to me for a couple reasons: firstly, it is a historical stronghold for the left/centre-left but it could be competitive nowadays; secondly, perhaps more importantly, PD leader Enrico Letta is running in it to try and re-enter Parliament.
Letta is supported by pretty much all of the centre-left and by M5S. His opponent for the centre-right coalition will be Tommaso Marrocchesi Marzi, unsurprisingly... a local enterpreneur. I assume Letta to have the clear upper hand especially since he can shore up the centre-left support with Five Stars voters.

LAZIO 1 - 11 (ROMA PRIMAVALLE)
Seat left open when Emanuela Del Re (M5S) resigned to become special EU representative for the Sahel region. The district covers an urban-to-suburban area in western Rome, which doesn't seem to obviously favour one coalition or the other. There is speculation that Giuseppe Conte may run for this seat, but as of now the only significant person to have officially declared his candidacy seems to be Luca Palamara, a famous former judge who was expelled from the judiciary in 2020 after he was exposed as a key figure in a system of corruption, favouritisms, shady deals in appointing prosecutors and the like. I don't expect Palamara to end up as a relevant player at all however.

[PSOL]

If I was an Italian voter I would abstain from voting

Good.

Well now I’m voting for LeU.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

There surely is much to add to my last effortpost, especially on national politics but I am on holiday and the electoral aspect of things is more spicy anyway, so what I will talk about today is just that our old friend Vittorio Sgarbi - who by the way has surprisingly or unsurprisingly ended up not running for anything this electoral cycle - has endorsed Palamara in the Rome by-election and urged the rest of the centre-right to support him as well (which will not happen). This is both extremely in character for the art critic and extremely hilarious, not least since Salvini is currently all engaged in collecting signatures for a series of referenda on the judiciary.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

On the topic of the parliamentary by-elections, we still somehow have no major party candidate officialized in the Rome one (and Conte will not run), but what we have is another notable name among the minor candidates: Elisabetta Trenta, former Minister of Defence during the Conte I government.

Meanwhile, since this is mid-to-late August and most people (even most pollsters lol) are on vacation, the biggest domestic news of the day is that Claudio Durigon, a government undersecretary from Lega, has just resigned after controversy ensued from his proposal to rename a park in Latina dedicated to Falcone and Borsellino after Benito Mussolini's brother. Good riddance.

[njwes]

Meanwhile, since this is mid-to-late August and most people (even most pollsters lol) are on vacation...

Thanks for this--I was getting worried about the shocking dearth of Italy polls in recent weeks! 

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Meanwhile, since this is mid-to-late August and most people (even most pollsters lol) are on vacation...

Thanks for this--I was getting worried about the shocking dearth of Italy polls in recent weeks! 

That happens pretty regularly with Italian polls in August, don't worry.

[Conservatopia]

Why does Italy have so many polls compared to other countries?  Is it just much cheaper somehow or is there another reason?

I wish other countries would do as much polling as the Italians pump out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right folks, Battista has been pestering me to update the thread title for a few weeks, and now I can finally do so. I'm not planning on ceding control of this megathread anytime soon.

I don't have much in the way of thoughts on Italian politics lately, it seems to be largely same-old-same-old stuff. There were some fun developments a few months ago, including the hilarious standoff between Conte and Grillo, but that's old news. Mostly now we're just waiting for the inevitable march toward the next general elections and the inevitable victory of the (far-)right. I doubt this government will be doing anything significant except bicker. That is, after all, the natural state of Italian politics.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why does Italy have so many polls compared to other countries?  Is it just much cheaper somehow or is there another reason?

I wish other countries would do as much polling as the Italians pump out.

Tbf there were a *lot* of GB polls before their big debacle in the 2015 GE (in particular, YouGov used to publish a "tracker" at least 5 times a week)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

All right folks, Battista has been pestering me to update the thread title for a few weeks, and now I can finally do so. I'm not planning on ceding control of this megathread anytime soon.

Thank you! Finally.

I don't have much in the way of thoughts on Italian politics lately, it seems to be largely same-old-same-old stuff. There were some fun developments a few months ago, including the hilarious standoff between Conte and Grillo, but that's old news. Mostly now we're just waiting for the inevitable march toward the next general elections and the inevitable victory of the (far-)right. I doubt this government will be doing anything significant except bicker. That is, after all, the natural state of Italian politics.

Oh I have to disagree here, this government is intent on passing a significant justice reform and a tax reform and will have to effectively implement the Recovery Plan, for one. I also think that the local elections might affect our political balance - but maybe I am just deluding myself. We'll see!

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right folks, Battista has been pestering me to update the thread title for a few weeks, and now I can finally do so. I'm not planning on ceding control of this megathread anytime soon.

Thank you! Finally.

I don't have much in the way of thoughts on Italian politics lately, it seems to be largely same-old-same-old stuff. There were some fun developments a few months ago, including the hilarious standoff between Conte and Grillo, but that's old news. Mostly now we're just waiting for the inevitable march toward the next general elections and the inevitable victory of the (far-)right. I doubt this government will be doing anything significant except bicker. That is, after all, the natural state of Italian politics.

Oh I have to disagree here, this government is intent on passing a significant justice reform and a tax reform and will have to effectively implement the Recovery Plan, for one. I also think that the local elections might affect our political balance - but maybe I am just deluding myself. We'll see!

I guess that's fair. Ultimately all of this seems pretty futile to me, but maybe I'm being overly gloomy. We shall see.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Some updates on the local elections because I can:

3. Elena Sironi, member of the local council of Milan's Municipio 4. Supported by the M5S. Well, technically she has been indicated by the activist base but not yet officialized by the high ranks i.e. Conte, but I doubt she will be rejected.

Ha! I really shouldn't have talked, should I? Sironi was rejected and the actual M5S candidate in Milan will be Layla Pavone, until a couple weeks ago a member of the directors board of the newspaper Il Fatto Quotidiano. This is all extremely on brand for the party - not that it matters of course since their chances to go to a runoff are fundamentally zero.

Also, I should say something about Trieste, the largest city electing its mayor this year I did not cover in that long post. Incumbent centre-right mayor Roberto Dipiazza is seeking re-election to yet another term - he's had a remarkable career, being mayor of the nearby town of Muggia from 1996 to 2001, then mayor of Trieste from 2001 to 2011, and again since 2016. His main opponent for the centre-left is Francesco Russo, FVG regional councilor and former Senator. The M5S is running separately but their candidate looks very likely to take crumbs. All in all a pretty similar situation to the other Northern cities of Turin and Milan, but in this case the centre-right i.e. Dipiazza has clearly the upper hand - may be the incumbency factor? Still I would expect to see a runoff happen.

I would also like to mention one very famous mayor who is running for re-election this year, even if his city is not particularly significant beyond being a provincial seat: Benevento's Clemente Mastella, a household name from the Berlusconi era notable for starting a load of "centrist" parties, shifting alliances as he pleased, managing to be a minister both under Berlusconi and under Prodi, causing the downfall of the Prodi II government. A true inland Appenninic Campanian original - I assume he will be easily re-elected.

[Flyersfan232]

How the Presidential race shaping up?