Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Not shocking to anyone who knows something about Italian culture tbh.

[Flyersfan232]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

_{* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it}

Who is berlusconi successor btw the man has to be grooming someone? Who isn’t a underage.

[Estrella]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

_{* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it}

Who is berlusconi successor btw the man has to be grooming someone? Who isn’t a underage.

No one. The crumbling of Berlusconi started long ago; just after his 2008 landslide victory, in fact. The events of how exactly it happened would be prime tragicomedy material, but it was basically like this:
- The economy went to shxt and took Silvio's popularity down with it
- He lost his parliamentary majority and had no alternative but to support an unpopular technocratic government
- Then he lost an election but had to enter a coalition with the left to make the country at least a little less ungovernable
 - Which, unsurprisingly made him even more unpopular and the psychodrama of his exit from said coalition didn't help
- Finally, he was prosecuted for corruption, expelled from Senate and banned from holding public office. By then, Salvnini had already eclipsed him and the only way was down. The small bump before the 2018 election turned out to be a mirage.

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Technically speaking the successor of Berlusconi has to be Antonio Tajani, but I both doubt Silvio will leave the leadership of the party as long as he is alive and doubt that Forza Italia will be able to survive his death.

[Estrella]

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Technically speaking the successor of Berlusconi has to be Antonio Tajani, but I both doubt Silvio will leave the leadership of the party as long as he is alive and doubt that Forza Italia will be able to survive his death.

I wonder, who are those 5-10% of people that would still vote for him?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Technically speaking the successor of Berlusconi has to be Antonio Tajani, but I both doubt Silvio will leave the leadership of the party as long as he is alive and doubt that Forza Italia will be able to survive his death.

I wonder, who are those 5-10% of people that would still vote for him?

- Southerners who are right-wing but not right-wing enough for FdI
- teh b0urge0isie
- "Liberal internationalist" Christian democrats
- People in retirement age, who understandably have a particularly bad opinion of extremisms

etc. etc. [note that there is overlap among these groups]

Also according to exit polls surprisingly many unemployed people?

I mean, if you go past the fact that Berlusconi is an unprincipled clownish person (which apparently is not so difficult to do) and Forza Italia his personalistic party, voting for it is makes a lot of sense if you have a certain ideological predisposition.

[Flyersfan232]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

_{* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it}

Who is berlusconi successor btw the man has to be grooming someone? Who isn’t a underage.

No one. The crumbling of Berlusconi started long ago; just after his 2008 landslide victory, in fact. The events of how exactly it happened would be prime tragicomedy material, but it was basically like this:
- The economy went to shxt and took Silvio's popularity down with it
- He lost his parliamentary majority and had no alternative but to support an unpopular technocratic government
- Then he lost an election but had to enter a coalition with the left to make the country at least a little less ungovernable
 - Which, unsurprisingly made him even more unpopular and the psychodrama of his exit from said coalition didn't help
- Finally, he was prosecuted for corruption, expelled from Senate and banned from holding public office. By then, Salvnini had already eclipsed him and the only way was down. The small bump before the 2018 election turned out to be a mirage.

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Basically who ever follows him as leader will be the q meditators between brothers and league and what about salvini? Anyone likely to take his place once he done with politics?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fico has thrown in the towel. Renzi and M5S just couldn't find agreements on a number of key points including using the ESM and judicial reform. Honestly, as much as I like to beat on Renzi, it sounds like M5S was equally unwilling to make compromises. Both parties are just not serious about working with the other. It's just sad.

Anyway, Mattarella will now attempt to form a national unity government. His speech today was basically a plea to avoid snap elections, which would paralyze political activity for the next 4 or 5 months at a time when we absolutely need it. We'll have to see if that can work. Berlusconi at least has been open to it before.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Basically who ever follows him as leader will be the q meditators between brothers and league and what about salvini? Anyone likely to take his place once he done with politics?

Salvini is less than 50 years old and still in a pretty good position. I don't see him being done with politics any time soon.



In other news, our friend Roberto Fico has "ascended the Hill" i.e. gone to the Quirinale palace and it seems that his response to Mattarella was that it wasn't possible to find an agreement.
Sergio Mattarella has announced that either we find a new government immediately or he dissolves Parliament.
I hear rumours about the possibility of Draghi government, but it is not clear to me how serious they are.

Oh lol, I was jinxed by Antonio. Whatever.

[Flyersfan232]

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Technically speaking the successor of Berlusconi has to be Antonio Tajani, but I both doubt Silvio will leave the leadership of the party as long as he is alive and doubt that Forza Italia will be able to survive his death.

I wonder, who are those 5-10% of people that would still vote for him?

- Southerners who are right-wing but not right-wing enough for FdI
- teh b0urge0isie
- "Liberal internationalist" Christian democrats
- People in retirement age, who understandably have a particularly bad opinion of extremisms

etc. etc. [note that there is overlap among these groups]

Also according to exit polls surprisingly many unemployed people?

I mean, if you go past the fact that Berlusconi is an unprincipled clownish person (which apparently is not so difficult to do) and Forza Italia his personalistic party, voting for it is makes a lot of sense if you have a certain ideological predisposition.

Who are southern league voters and norther fdi voters?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Who are southern league voters and norther fdi voters?

Northern FdI voters may be nationalists, former neofascists, people who don't think the other parties on the right are right-wing or serious enough... mostly the same kind of people who vote FdI in the South, just there are a bit fewer of them.
Southern Lega voters pretty much didn't exist until five years ago or so, therefore it's more complicated, but I imagine many of them are attracted by Salvini's message specifically. They presumably don't care that much about Lega's history about ~terroni~ just like most people don't care that much that the predecessors of FdI were fascist or the pre-pre-predecessors of PD (in part) were communist.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

Get us all ready for the "technical government"!

like dis if u cri evry tiem

[Flyersfan232]

Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

A national unity government? Can’t wait to see this sh*tshow fall apart in a year

[Astatine]

Regarding Berlusconi... In German there is a nice proverb: "Hast du einen Opa, dann schick ihn nach Europa" (If you have a grandpa, send him to Europe[an politics]).

[Diouf]

Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

So in order for this to pass, I guess M5S will at least have to abstain? There is no majority if both Lega and M5S vote against, and I guess Salvini will vote against?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

So in order for this to pass, I guess M5S will at least have to abstain? There is no majority if both Lega and M5S vote against, and I guess Salvini will vote against?

Yes, the presumption would be that this government would be supported by every party except Lega and FdI. We're going to have to see if that's actually practicable. On paper, you'd think M5S would hate Draghi's "sinister Eurocrat" background, but in fact they've had some good things to say about him. It's really hard not to given that he almost single-handedly saved Southern Europe from economic implosion.

[FrancoAgo]

Vote for Draghi for PD&M5SS will be a huge error, to the next election Salvini and Meloni will take 60% without FI; a this point try to do a Conte ter government w/o IV go to Senate if not get the confidence go to elections

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vote for Draghi for PD&M5SS will be a huge error, to the next election Salvini and Meloni will take 60% without FI; a this point try to do a Conte ter government w/o IV go to Senate if not get the confidence go to elections

Having elections right now would genuinely be really bad for Italy. For economic reasons, and also because the electoral law is absolute trash and needs to be made more proportional.

Get the EU money, vaccinate people, start getting the economy out of the ditch, and enact a proportional system. If we get to January 2022, give us the added bonus of another left-leaning President. Then we can go to vote.

[FrancoAgo]

And get a far right government with ad huge majority in the parliament, i predict many constitutional laws

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The logical thing to do is to pass a proportional law that eliminates "electoral coalitions", which don't make sense anyway in a proportional system and were only maintained by the Calderoli law because of that monstrous mAjOrity pRizE.
Which is how it worked during the First Party System, and how it works in Spain/Portugal/Belgium/Finland/the Netherlands/etc. by the way, even though I suspect people have now been conditioned to the idea that coalitions happen before the election.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Sergio Mattarella has officially appointed Mario Draghi now.
He is likely going to find enough support for a government, but it remains to be seen from whom exactly.

M5S is insisting this must be "a political government, not a technical one". Silvio Berlusconi had expressed agnosticism about Draghi. Even Matteo Salvini has said "we don't have prejudices, we want to meet prof. Draghi so that we can listen, propose, and make our judgments" which may not mean anything but is a more open position that I might have expected. PD and LeU are saying a lot of programmatic things and that the centre-left must work coordinately. I don't know anything about Queen Giorgia.
Alessandro Di Battista, who famously represents the tankie wing of M5S, is furious and has proclaimed "Draghi is a no-go, let the establishment parties vote for him".

[jaichind]

If a Draghi government is formed without M5S support does that not mean a second wind for M5S in the next election for them to pick up the anti-establishment vote that it lost.

[Conservatopia]

Could somebody please give a overview of how the electoral law works at the moment?

What exactly does it mean that Lega and FI are in coalition?  Do you vote for the CDX or for individual parties within the coalition?  How do coalitions work in single member seats?

I think I recall that Sardinian Action ran with Lega at the last election.  However they aren't part of the CDX per se?  How does that work?

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Could somebody please give a overview of how the electoral law works at the moment?

What exactly does it mean that Lega and FI are in coalition?  Do you vote for the CDX or for individual parties within the coalition?  How do coalitions work in single member seats?

I think I recall that Sardinian Action ran with Lega at the last election.  However they aren't part of the CDX per se?  How does that work?

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!

Using the current electoral law:

1. You vote for a single list, and the vote is also transferred to the single-member constituency candidate put up by that list. Parties can form coalitions, which means that they all stand behind the same candidate in each constituency (though that candidate is officially affiliated to one of the lists that support him - or is an independent).

2. The Partito Sardo d'Azione (party) didn't run as an autonomous list in 2018, but ran some candidates inside the Lega lists. Lega in turn was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition.

3. Likewise Fitto's party ran candidates inside the Noi con l'Italia lists. And NcI was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition too.