Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[brucejoel99]

Definitely a stupid question but asking those of you who actually know & follow Italian politics on an active basis because I have no earthly ability to even attempt to garner an answer myself: what, in your opinion, is the most likely outcome of all of this?

[Estrella]

Apologies for this Tenderism, but I just wanted to note that Roberto Fico became President of the Chamber two days after Robert Fico resigned as PM of Slovakia and was succeeded by a guy with an Italian surname.

If that is true, RIP Italy

In case you're curious about the Slovak equivalent of Roberto Fico (i.e. speaker of the legislature)...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Definitely a stupid question but asking those of you who actually know & follow Italian politics on an active basis because I have no earthly ability to even attempt to garner an answer myself: what, in your opinion, is the most likely outcome of all of this?

At this point, I think either they patch things up with Renzi, or we're headed for new elections (which may be delayed slightly with a short-lived "national unity government" taking over for a few months). The possibility of a Conte III government without Renzi but with enough support in the Senate from miscellaneous centrists and party-switchers doesn't seem practicable at the moment, sadly.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

That's not true unless you consider Italia Viva a right-wing party.
But also, I just wish there were a painless way out of the mess.


Totally unrelated but tonight I think I dreamt that Salvini (or some right-winger) was leaving government and that he was preannouncing that in his last rally/interview would have had just one question for the incoming left-wing government, something about gay couples (do you want to pass same-sex marriage? I guess).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

That's not true unless you consider Italia Viva a right-wing party.
But also, I just wish there were a painless way out of the mess.


Totally unrelated but tonight I think I dreamt that Salvini (or some right-winger) was leaving government and that he was preannouncing that in his last rally/interview would have had just one question for the incoming left-wing government, something about gay couples (do you want to pass same-sex marriage? I guess).

Well, that's relatively optimistic.

I once had a dream where elections were coming up and Lega+FdI were guaranteed to win 60%+ of the vote, and the only question was which of the two parties would come out ahead and lead the coalition, so I was preparing to cast a very reluctant vote for FdI. Now that's nightmarish.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

That's not true unless you consider Italia Viva a right-wing party.
But also, I just wish there were a painless way out of the mess.


Totally unrelated but tonight I think I dreamt that Salvini (or some right-winger) was leaving government and that he was preannouncing that in his last rally/interview would have had just one question for the incoming left-wing government, something about gay couples (do you want to pass same-sex marriage? I guess).

Well, that's relatively optimistic.

I once had a dream where elections were coming up and Lega+FdI were guaranteed to win 60%+ of the vote, and the only question was which of the two parties would come out ahead and lead the coalition, so I was preparing to cast a very reluctant vote for FdI. Now that's nightmarish.

If that nightmare came to pass I would take the opportunity to cast the most hilarious ballot of my life.
Or otherwise I would just hop on the bandwagon to try and get more Social Democracy But Reactionary and less Neoliberalism But Reactionary.

[Estrella]

I know that there are more important things to watch about Italy now, mafia gonna mafia after all, plus it doesn't really fit this thread - but could anybody tell me more about the 'Ndrangheta trial that started two weeks ago?

_{Slovakposting again, but I'm curious since there are well-founded suspicions that those guys had friends in high places here, up to and including Cabinet Office.}

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I know that there are more important things to watch about Italy now, mafia gonna mafia after all, plus it doesn't really fit this thread - but could anybody tell me more about the 'Ndrangheta trial that started two weeks ago?

_{Slovakposting again, but I'm curious since there are well-founded suspicions that those guys had friends in high places here, up to and including Cabinet Office.}

Yayyyyy!
I do remember that they talked about 'Ndrangheta Slovak connections.

This new process is a maxi-processo (using the terminology invented at the time of Falcone & Borsellino) with some three hundreds of defendants, all sorts of criminal charges, and basically the entire mafia of Vibo Valentia, based around the Mancuso family, is involved. It's hopefully a landmark point.

[Estrella]

ＲＥＮＺＩＭＡＮＩＡ

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1355525215938342912

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

ＲＥＮＺＩＭＡＮＩＡ

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1355525215938342912

LOL!

2.4% for Italia Viva is actually below their polling average.

[Former President tack50]

What's with all the tiny irrelevant left of centre parties? Why are there so many of them?

And more importantly, will that hurt PD in some way?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

What's with all the tiny irrelevant left of centre parties? Why are there so many of them?

And more importantly, will that hurt PD in some way?

Because:

- the Greens want to pretend they're relevant
- the Radicals (+Europa) need to exist because otherwise who would the overedumucated liberal bourgeoisie and the #woke university kids vote for?
- Renzi gonna Renzi
- Calenda refused to be in a party in government with the M5S, but also didn't join +E because reasons
- the more hard-edged social democrats need their own party/coalition (La Sinistra), understandably

And of course there are the half dozen k-onmmunist parties, all basically irrelevant, all presumably hating each other's guts, and of which PC is the largest.

Well, Italia Viva and Azione definitely hurt PD's standing in the polls. It's impossible to know about the others. As for the future, it depends on what will be the electoral law and what will be the coalitions, both of which are question marks.

But really, personalistic parties is one of Italy's favourite sports in the last quarter century, and this gives no sign to be changing.

[FrancoAgo]

Elections update
The next spring would be a round of 1285 mayor elections
within Roma, Milano, Napoli, Torino, Bologna and Trieste

At moment the 11th April would be the regional elections in Calabria

[parochial boy]

Who is claiming they're going to vote Italia Viva anyway? I mean, Renzi fanboys, but who the christ is a Renzi fanboy in this the year 2021?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Who is claiming they're going to vote Italia Viva anyway? I mean, Renzi fanboys, but who the christ is a Renzi fanboy in this the year 2021?

A friend of mine (sort of) is a Renzi fanboy (sort of - he was more of one some years ago) though he isn't in Italia Viva and apparently he's leaning towards Azione.

Also my paternal grandfather, of all people, is now an Italia Viva voter and I'm still trying to understand why - it might have to do with whatever local administrator he's friends with or something. He's basically an old school Christian democrat and I wouldn't call him a Renzi fanboy really.

[Flyersfan232]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

[Estrella]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Tomorrow (well, today, because it's past midnight in Italy) Roberto Fico, the man of Slovak coincidences*, should refer to Sergio Mattarella about his, ahem, government explorations. I am not sure what he is going to say, really.

And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.



*it should be noted that Roberto Fico is read ['fiko] whereas Robert Fico is read ['fitsɔ].

[Estrella]

And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.

I recall that back in 2019 Fratelli actually won some seats in northern regions. If the next election takes place with polling numbers like we have now (obvs a big if), could we see a result where Lega does decently in the Mezzogiorno, but Fratelli also do decently in the North?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.

I recall that back in 2019 Fratelli actually won some seats in northern regions. If the next election takes place with polling numbers like we have now (obvs a big if), could we see a result where Lega does decently in the Mezzogiorno, but Fratelli also do decently in the North?

I am not sure what seats you mean (in the European Parliament? Yeah, but that's not very surprising) but what you are describing now for the next election is the modal outcome. Of course Lega will do much better in the North regardless, and Fratelli d'Italia will most likely do better in the South (but best of all in the Centre, or precisely in what we can call "enlarged Lazio"), but that's beside the point.

[Estrella]

And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.

I recall that back in 2019 Fratelli actually won some seats in northern regions. If the next election takes place with polling numbers like we have now (obvs a big if), could we see a result where Lega does decently in the Mezzogiorno, but Fratelli also do decently in the North?

I am not sure what seats you mean (in the European Parliament? Yeah, but that's not very surprising) but what you are describing now for the next election is the modal outcome. Of course Lega will do much better in the North regardless, and Fratelli d'Italia will most likely do better in the South (but best of all in the Centre, or precisely in what we can call "enlarged Lazio"), but that's beside the point.

Yeah, I meant the EP. But - well, I'm not sure if I misunderstood your answer or you misunderstood my question. What I meant is, FdI will do well in the south/enlarged Lazio, but will Lega still keep a significant vote in those places? And vice versa.

[Flyersfan232]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Yeah, I meant the EP. But - well, I'm not sure if I misunderstood your answer or you misunderstood my question. What I meant is, FdI will do well in the south/enlarged Lazio, but will Lega still keep a significant vote in those places? And vice versa.

Yes, my answer was that it will keep a signficant vote in those places, and vice versa. I think the results of the regional elections (as unreliable as they may be) point in that direction too.

[Estrella]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

_{* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it}