Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Speaking of those maps, I will make some Tuscany discourse because I can't help myself:
I find it interesting by probably unsurprising that Carrara centre and Massa centre were narrow left victories whereas Marina di Carrara and Marina di Massa (which by the way are both boring and not remotely worth Viareggio) were narrow right victories.
The effect was much bigger in Pisa with the historic centre and immediate surroundings being more than comfortable victories for Giani and Marina di Pisa/Tirrenia big for Ceccardi, although I should note that Pisa's geography is quite different from Carrara's and Massa's.
Kind of surprised that Viareggio's centre voted (very narrowly) for Giani, not necessarily that Torre del Lago Puccini is so right-wing.
Lucca is hilarious, I have basically only been inside the old citadel - wonderful place, which apparently voted to the left, but was outvoted by the vast periphery to the west (the periphery to the east is the separate town of Capannori instead).
Also lmao Florence. Even the precincts containing Piazza della Signoria, the Uffizi, Piazza della Repubblica and Palazzo Strozzi, which must be absurdly rich, voted Giani by double digits. And are surrounded by historic centre precincts which were mostly left landslides, which are surrounded by more peripheric precincts which for the most part were even bigger left landslides. Florence is just something else.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

lmao, your dad wants a government that goes from PD to Lega? Yeah, fat chance.

Agreed that Renzi is quite unpredictable, but he really seems serious about this. He's had many chances to deescalate the conflict and he's only ramped it up. I think he's an egotistical blowhard, obviously, although he has some valid points (Conte has been a little cavalier in his governing style since the pandemic began, and taking the ESM money is a no-brainer). Above all else, though, you're right, having an election right now is Not a good idea. I'm still kinda, sorta hoping we can enact a more proportional electoral system before going to new elections, though this is exactly what Renzi is opposing. And of course, we need to elect Mattarella's successor. Throughout the Second Republic, the right has never been able to elect a President - and I want this streak to continue.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

lmao, your dad wants a government that goes from PD to Lega? Yeah, fat chance.

Agreed that Renzi is quite unpredictable, but he really seems serious about this. He's had many chances to deescalate the conflict and he's only ramped it up. I think he's an egotistical blowhard, obviously, although he has some valid points (Conte has been a little cavalier in his governing style since the pandemic began, and taking the ESM money is a no-brainer). Above all else, though, you're right, having an election right now is Not a good idea. I'm still kinda, sorta hoping we can enact a more proportional electoral system before going to new elections, though this is exactly what Renzi is opposing. And of course, we need to elect Mattarella's successor. Throughout the Second Republic, the right has never been able to elect a President - and I want this streak to continue.

My dad just wants to see M5S (and Conte) nuked out of orbit. He hates PD too but less, and the right-wing/far-right but even less.

Renzi is indeed an egotistical blowhard, although I have to admit I respect the ability to con people he showed in 2014 and 2015 (remember when PD took 41% at the Europeans? F***ing insane) even if it didn't last. He seems serious but I don't know what his endgame exactly is. He's not gonna bring IV from 3% to relevancy if he topples the government.
I hope for a serious proportional system and not this mess too. I don't know why Renzi opposes that, but it seems to me that the people proposing majoritarianism are always something something neoliberal/lolbertarian/Moderate Hero. I think Mattarella's successor is up in the air in any case, and I am not that concerned with Presidential elections, but I see the merits of your point.
One streak I personally don't want to break is that of having parliamentary elections in the first half of the year, but that's just me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

lmao, your dad wants a government that goes from PD to Lega? Yeah, fat chance.

Agreed that Renzi is quite unpredictable, but he really seems serious about this. He's had many chances to deescalate the conflict and he's only ramped it up. I think he's an egotistical blowhard, obviously, although he has some valid points (Conte has been a little cavalier in his governing style since the pandemic began, and taking the ESM money is a no-brainer). Above all else, though, you're right, having an election right now is Not a good idea. I'm still kinda, sorta hoping we can enact a more proportional electoral system before going to new elections, though this is exactly what Renzi is opposing. And of course, we need to elect Mattarella's successor. Throughout the Second Republic, the right has never been able to elect a President - and I want this streak to continue.

My dad just wants to see M5S (and Conte) nuked out of orbit. He hates PD too but less, and the right-wing/far-right but even less.

Renzi is indeed an egotistical blowhard, although I have to admit I respect the ability to con people he showed in 2014 and 2015 (remember when PD took 41% at the Europeans? F***ing insane) even if it didn't last. He seems serious but I don't know what his endgame exactly is. He's not gonna bring IV from 3% to relevancy if he topples the government.
I hope for a serious proportional system and not this mess too. I don't know why Renzi opposes that, but it seems to me that the people proposing majoritarianism are always something something neoliberal/lolbertarian/Moderate Hero. I think Mattarella's successor is up in the air in any case, and I am not that concerned with Presidential elections, but I see the merits of your point.
One streak I personally don't want to break is that of having parliamentary elections in the first half of the year, but that's just me.

To Renzi's credit, he's been a consistent advocate for majoritarianism, even now when it's not in his political self-interest. Either way, he was wrong then (although I admit at the time I was convinced by him) and he's very wrong now.

And to me, elections ought to be in late Spring. May and June are election months. February and March feel a little too early for my tastes, but I guess at least it's not something really dumb like November.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

To Renzi's credit, he's been a consistent advocate for majoritarianism, even now when it's not in his political self-interest. Either way, he was wrong then (although I admit at the time I was convinced by him) and he's very wrong now.

And to me, elections ought to be in late Spring. May and June are election months. February and March feel a little too early for my tastes, but I guess at least it's not something really dumb like November.

Oh so you were once conned by Renzi too? Proving my point.

Entirely agreed on the date of the election. May/June have also the nice touch of coinciding with the end of the school year.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To Renzi's credit, he's been a consistent advocate for majoritarianism, even now when it's not in his political self-interest. Either way, he was wrong then (although I admit at the time I was convinced by him) and he's very wrong now.

And to me, elections ought to be in late Spring. May and June are election months. February and March feel a little too early for my tastes, but I guess at least it's not something really dumb like November.

Oh so you were once conned by Renzi too? Proving my point.

yeah... Well all make mistakes in our youth - you're young enough you probably have a few ahead of you.

[CumbrianLefty]

As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

[Lord Halifax]

Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

The President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament during the last six months of their tenure (unless compelled to because the legislature's term would expire as well in that same time frame). This is commonly called semestre bianco (white semester).

[Lord Halifax]

Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

The President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament during the last six months of their tenure (unless compelled to because the legislature's term would expire as well in that same time frame). This is commonly called semestre bianco (white semester).

Okay, I can see there is a Wiki article under the Italy name.(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semestre_bianco ).

But why did they make that rule?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

The President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament during the last six months of their tenure (unless compelled to because the legislature's term would expire as well in that same time frame). This is commonly called semestre bianco (white semester).

Okay, I can see there is a Wiki article under the Italy name.(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semestre_bianco ).

But why did they make that rule?

Presumably to avoid that a President on their way out could use the opportunity to artificially lenghten their term and/or to engineer a new Parliament more favourable to their re-election or the election of someone from their political wing.
Of course the President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament just on a whim, but the amount of soft power that's available to them is theoretically unlimited (to make a real life example, it's pretty clear that Berlusconi was sort of forced to resign by Napolitano in 2011).

[rob in cal]

   What does M5S have to say about all this?  From the discussions it almost seems that they are a marginal player, which is ironic since they are the biggest party in the government. Is it that they are just trying to go along as long as possible and avoid new elections or rocking the boat because they know they will take huge losses in the next elections. 

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

   What does M5S have to say about all this?  From the discussions it almost seems that they are a marginal player, which is ironic since they are the biggest party in the government. Is it that they are just trying to go along as long as possible and avoid new elections or rocking the boat because they know they will take huge losses in the next elections. 

I guess so. M5S has no incentive to see the government fall or a snap election happen, and in any case all the discourse seems to be incredibly personality driven, between the big ego of Renzi and the probably-bigger-than-he-lets-on ego of Conte.

[PSOL]

Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

[Antonio the Sixth]

As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

Oh come on, there's a big gap between falling for Renzi's shtick and falling for BoJo's. Don't put me in the same category.

Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

Is he? I can't find any news about it (and Italian news studiously cover everything the Pope says or does).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

He absolutely has not done that. He has received Zingaretti in quality of President of Lazio (and later received Virginia Raggi, mayor of Rome) because it's tradition that he meet local administrators, and later, separately, has given an interview attacking "culture of waste" (where he has even tried to ground his appeals in a 'secular' form btw). I don't think I need to explain what Francis means by culture of waste.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

Is he? I can't find any news about it (and Italian news studiously cover everything the Pope says or does).

Isn't it beautiful to live in a papist theocracy

[CumbrianLefty]

As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

Oh come on, there's a big gap between falling for Renzi's shtick and falling for BoJo's. Don't put me in the same category.

Fair point - Renzi is arguably much more of a Blair

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

Oh come on, there's a big gap between falling for Renzi's shtick and falling for BoJo's. Don't put me in the same category.

Fair point - Renzi is arguably much more of a Blair

Renzi himself has mentioned (more than once I think) Tony Blair as an inspiration, so it makes perfect sense.

[Diouf]

It sounds like there's a government drama tonight. Renzi's Italia Viva could leave the government over disagreements about the recovery plan, and then the questions is whether the government still has a majority behind it.

The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement (M5S) and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) on Tuesday warned ex-premier Matteo Renzi against plunging Premier Giuseppe Conte's coalition government into crisis. Ministers from Renzi's centrist Italia Viva (IV) party may resign after a cabinet meeting later on Tuesday to approve the government's Recovery Plan.
Renzi has been at odds with Conte for weeks about the government's programme on how to spend some 209 billion euros Italy will get in grants and low-interest loans from the EU's COVID-19 Recovery Fund. Renzi has blasted the plan as lacking ambition while also saying IV's problems with the government go beyond this issue, including the failure to take up the option of getting 37 billion in cash from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) for a national health system pushed to the limit by COVID-19
There is speculation Conte could resign and form what would be his third government after a cabinet reshuffle, with the premier being flanked by deputy premiers from the parties supporting the executive. But this executive may not have enough parliamentary support without IV, especially in the Senate

It sounds like Renzi is ready to leave, but the latest news report seems more optimistic about Conte finding enough support to continue the government without IV.

Ex-premier and centrist Italia Viva (IV) party leader Matteo Renzi said Tuesday Premier Giuseppe Conte was "convinced" he would have enough parliamentary support without IV which was therefore set to join the opposition. "If the premier has taken this line he is clearly convinced he has the numbers an that's OK, it's called parliamentary democracy and we'll go into opposition," said the former leader of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD).
With IV's upcoming defection over the COVID Recovery Plan, Conte needs 18 Senators to make up for the loss of Renzi's party. Observers said he was likely to get them.

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/general_news/2021/01/12/pd-and-m5s-warn-renzis-iv-against-triggering-govt-crisis_a8238adb-797c-4a78-bd5c-010b8b5d4735.html
https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2021/01/12/conte-convinced-he-has-numbers-iv-to-opposition-renzi_bebb4a2a-126a-4906-8258-455739bf58d6.html

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.

Article:

ROME (Reuters) - Italy’s former premier Matteo Renzi said on Wednesday he was pulling his party’s ministers from the cabinet, effectively leaving the ruling coalition without a majority in parliament.

His decision, announced at a news conference, throws Italy into political chaos even as the country is struggling to contain the resurgent COVID-19 pandemic.

Renzi, who heads the tiny Italia Viva party, had long threatened to quit the government, complaining about Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s plans over how to spend billions of euros promised by the European Union to relaunch the economy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-renzi/italys-renzi-pulls-his-party-from-ruling-coalition-idUSKBN29I2I9

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.

How likely are new elections ?

It would be the typical 3 years or so after the last Italian election ... but the timing is pretty bad this year. Renzi seems kinda selfish for pulling out at this difficult time, but I don't know the background story and his motivations.

Anyway, Lega+FdI+FI are around 50% - but such a far-right coalition seems very unlikely. And even if they'd win a majority and form a government, it would fall apart pretty soon due to the usual fights that are the norm in far-right governments.

Poor Italy.