Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

YOUR REVOLUTION IS OVER, CECCARDI! CONDOLENCES! THE FASH LOST! THE FASH WILL ALWAYS LOSE!

If it wasn't too long, I would change my display name to "In the privacy of the polling booth, God sees you - Salvini doesn't".

Great minds think alike!

[Antonio the Sixth]

YOUR REVOLUTION IS OVER, CECCARDI! CONDOLENCES! THE FASH LOST! THE FASH WILL ALWAYS LOSE!

If it wasn't too long, I would change my display name to "In the privacy of the polling booth, God sees you - Salvini doesn't".

Great minds think alike!

[Antonio the Sixth]

The man, the myth, the legend, the one and only VINCENZO DE LUCA speaking now.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The man, the myth, the legend, the one and only VINCENZO DE LUCA speaking now.

MR. VINCENT DE LUCA 😎

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The man, the myth, the legend, the one and only VINCENZO DE LUCA speaking now.

MR. VINCENT DE LUCA 😎

Unbeatable Titan Vincenzo De Luca!

[I promised the display name would be out today]

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

All referendum votes have been counted. Yes has won with 69.64% of the votes.

To the dismay of Edu and Antonio among others, Italians Abroad has been a Yes landslide bigger than any region save Molise.
My region, Liguria, has been one of only three where No cracked 35%, which is slightly relieving.

Final turnout is slightly above 50%, which is bad but not abysmal. More than 26,000,000 people have voted.

After screening for whether or not a region had regional elections, the geographic turnout differential has been pretty small, which is a good turnabout, because after 2018 (77% in the North - 68% in the South) and 2019 (62.5% in the North - 46.5% in the South), I was not necessarily expecting to see Piedmont and Lombardy at 51.5% vs Abruzzo+Basilicata+Calabria+Molise at 48.5%. Exception are the Islands, which always disappoint on this front, and for some obscure reason, our friends in TAA.

[CumbrianLefty]

So overall the regional elections weren't too bad for the centre-left?

[Velasco]

So overall the regional elections weren't too bad for the centre-left?

Retaining Tuscany, Campania and Puglia was important for the centre-left, especially the former. Add to this that the referendum on the constitutional reform proposed by M5S was successful and the result is that the Conte government is reinforced However, the right retains Veneto and other bastions and Fratelli D'Italia is about to snatch the Marche region

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Quick and dirty map of the left-right topline in the provinces:



You really get a sense of De Luca, Zaia, and Toti's landslides vs. Acquaroli, Emiliano, and Giani's somewhat more modest victories, plus Tuscany's seemingly greater degree of political diversity (and self-sorting--sad!) than the other regions that voted this weekend.

[CumbrianLefty]

Quick and dirty map of the left-right topline in the provinces:



You really get a sense of De Luca, Zaia, and Toti's landslides vs. Acquaroli, Emiliano, and Giani's somewhat more modest victories, plus Tuscany's seemingly greater degree of political diversity (and self-sorting--sad!) than the other regions that voted this weekend.

So how do those results compare with previously?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So how do those results compare with previously?

It depends on what you mean with "previously".

Last regional cycle (2015) Italy was still in the midst of a Renzi crush.
Last parliamentary elections (2018) Italy was high on Five Star sugar.
Last European elections (2019) are probably the most comparable and what you'd get is basically "the left has gained" but to very different degrees in different places.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So how do those results compare with previously?

In 2015 the left swept the Tuscan, Apulian, and Marchesan provinces, as well as winning La Spezia province in Liguria; however, the right won Naples and Caserta provinces in Campania. But it needs to be remembered that M5S was much stronger then than it is now and that the lockstep center-right-to-right bloc hadn't fully consolidated yet. There were plenty of left-wing plurality victories five years ago that became right-wing plurality victories this weekend.

Relative to the 2018 general and 2019 EP elections, though, yes the left has bounced back.

[Estrella]

Possibly clueless #analysis and musings:

I know that the blowout in Campania and record-high percentages for the right in Red Belt were local results with all that follows from that. Still, I wonder if we might see a trend where both Central and Southern Italy become some sort of...swing regions? Something like if right wins, they'll be winning in Emilia-Romagna and if left wins, they'll be winning in Apulia - because of/despite the likelihood that the 2013 and 2018 three-cornered freak shows were aberrations that won't be repeated anytime soon.

Methinks that Fratelli are not Forza and will never be getting those kinds of results in the South, while Lega is MSI boogaloo elettrico - not an explicitly regional party, but doing quite a bit better in one part of the county than others (and also crazy far-right nuts). Sure, the border of that part has shifted a few hundred kilometres southwards but they will not become a truly national force like Forza (hah) either. Point being, Salvini and Meloni will have strongholds in their respective halves of the country, but the former will be stronger than Berlusconi in formerly lefty places and the latter will be weaker than him in formerly righty ones.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Possibly clueless #analysis and musings:

I know that the blowout in Campania and record-high percentages for the right in Red Belt were local results with all that follows from that. Still, I wonder if we might see a trend where both Central and Southern Italy become some sort of...swing regions? Something like if right wins, they'll be winning in Emilia-Romagna and if left wins, they'll be winning in Apulia - because of/despite the likelihood that the 2013 and 2018 three-cornered freak shows were aberrations that won't be repeated anytime soon.

Methinks that Fratelli are not Forza and will never be getting those kinds of results in the South, while Lega is MSI boogaloo elettrico - not an explicitly regional party, but doing quite a bit better in one part of the county than others (and also crazy far-right nuts). Sure, the border of that part has shifted a few hundred kilometres southwards but they will not become a truly national force like Forza (hah) either. Point being, Salvini and Meloni will have strongholds in their respective halves of the country, but the former will be stronger than Berlusconi in formerly lefty places and the latter will be weaker than him in formerly righty ones.

No. The results in Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany are in line with the previous two decades if you adjust for the national climate. They are still pretty red - although I reckon they are so in a different way from the past because of urban-rural polarization - they are not going to become swing regions.
Southern Italy *was* mostly a swing area before M5S happened, and I think it can come back to be one if the left plays its cards well.

I think your point about the regionality of the right-wing is correct, assuming the right-wing remains a Lega-FdI tandem. I wouldn't rule out crazy things happening, but of course I don't know what these crazy things would be.
Your point about formerly lefty and formerly righty areas is interesting but I am not sure how much I agree.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So, what happened in the Aosta Valley? Why did the AV local party get hit so hard?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

By the way:
The province of La Spezia has been the worst one for Toti. Yas!

I am a bit salty that he still won the city of La Spezia, however a funny thing is that here his personal list has done particularly badly and it is one of the few places where both Lega and FdI have beaten it.

I went check some precincts and the main culprit is that muh city centre liberals* voted big for Toti. However precinct no. 62 covering the noted #Communist village of Pitelli voted Sansa 67-32.

*in the European sense

[palandio]

So how do those results compare with previously?

Italy during the Second Republic has been leaning slightly to the right.

In the most recent past Italy has leaned strongly to the right (e.g. 2019 EP election). (And the Right has become more right-wing than in the past.)

It's difficult to extrapolate from yesterday's results to the national level, but it seems to me that the Right still is clearly favored on the national level, not as much as during the last two years or so, but clearly favored. On the other hand the left has been able to consolidate, mostly at the expense of M5S (and to a minor degree FI?), but outside of Emilia-Romagna and Toscana it seems to still trail the right. Large parts of the South have been swingy during the Second Republic. The results in Campania and Apulia show that under the right circumstances the left-wing potential is still there in the South, but it won't necessarily translate to the national level.

When talking about where regions are going to lean, we should take into account not only one side (Lega+FdI), but all sides. The Left is deeply rooted in parts of the Center-North and socio-economic trends are favorable to it in parts of the Center-North. Therefore the Lega won't magically take it all over with no resistance. On the other hand the South will not just vote for the Left because there isn't anyone else left, the Left will have to actively win back the South.

[palandio]

I went check some precincts and the main culprit is that muh city centre liberals* voted big for Toti.

The success of Zaia's and Toti's personal lists, the Lega's relative(!) weakness and the assumption that FdI can't completely fill out the center-right space in the South make me think:

Is a tandem really a safe option for Lega and FdI or would they gain a lot by including FI or some "moderate" successor in their alliance?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I went check some precincts and the main culprit is that muh city centre liberals* voted big for Toti.

The success of Zaia's and Toti's personal lists, the Lega's relative(!) weakness and the assumption that FdI can't completely fill out the center-right space in the South make me think:

Is a tandem really a safe option for Lega and FdI or would the gave to gain a lot by including FI or some "moderate" successor in their alliance?

I don't know if that assumption is valid to be honest.
People forget that AN took 16% of the votes in 1996. And Fini had identified as a neofascist until two years and a half before. FdI can do even better in my opinion.

I don't know if they have to gain or not. I think FI will be a part of the coalition as long as the party exists, but I also think that they are slowly dying out and I have no idea how a moderate successor could look like.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No. The results in Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany are in line with the previous two decades if you adjust for the national climate. They are still pretty red - although I reckon they are so in a different way from the past because of urban-rural polarization - they are not going to become swing regions.

Also the point is that the Left was able to win in Tuscany whilst running an actual block of wood as its candidate. Do that almost anywhere else, and the result would be (and often has been) decidedly less pretty. But what is true - and this is not a phenomenon unique to Italy! - is that party allegiances are weaker than they have ever been, and this means greater and greater electoral volatility. Occasionally this will mean results that, in combination, will look perverse. But they will not represent a new order.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

No. The results in Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany are in line with the previous two decades if you adjust for the national climate. They are still pretty red - although I reckon they are so in a different way from the past because of urban-rural polarization - they are not going to become swing regions.

Also the point is that the Left was able to win in Tuscany whilst running an actual block of wood as its candidate. Do that almost anywhere else, and the result would be (and often has been) decidedly less pretty. But what is true - and this is not a phenomenon unique to Italy! - is that party allegiances are weaker than they have ever been, and this means greater and greater electoral volatility. Occasionally this will mean results that, in combination, will look perverse. But they will not represent a new order.

Yes. If the left had had a Bonaccini-level candidate in Tuscany I think it would have been by more, like 12 to 15 percentage points.
Party allegiances have been extraordinarily weak in Italy in the last few years, but I sort of think that we have just reached and possibly passed a low point.

So, what happened in the Aosta Valley? Why did the AV local party get hit so hard?

I have no idea. Aosta Valley politics is pretty obscure (also reminder that the Aosta Valley has less people than the city of Livorno).

[palandio]

[...]
assumption that FdI can't completely fill out the center-right space in the South
[...]

I don't know if that assumption is valid to be honest.
People forget that AN took 16% of the votes in 1996. And Fini had identified as a neofascist until two years and a half before. FdI can do even better in my opinion.

And in parts of the South AN was even stronger than this. I know that a part of the Southern FI and CCD-CDU vote was not ideological, that today is a different time and that maybe FdI is more palatable than AN was in 1996. But still, in 1996 FI took over 20% in most of the South (in Sicily 32%), not even accounting for the CCD-CDU. I doubt that a party that is basically the successor of post-fascist AN without the moderate wing, can inherit (Southern) AN, FI and CCD-CDU at the same time.

[parochial boy]

So, what happened in the Aosta Valley? Why did the AV local party get hit so hard?

It turns out the entire Aostan political class has been in the pockets of the Calabrese mafia for decades, it seems the revelation didn't go down well.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

[...]
assumption that FdI can't completely fill out the center-right space in the South
[...]

I don't know if that assumption is valid to be honest.
People forget that AN took 16% of the votes in 1996. And Fini had identified as a neofascist until two years and a half before. FdI can do even better in my opinion.

And in parts of the South AN was even stronger than this. I know that a part of the Southern FI and CCD-CDU vote was not ideological, that today is a different time and that maybe FdI is more palatable than AN was in 1996. But still, in 1996 FI took over 20% in most of the South (in Sicily 32%), not even accounting for the CCD-CDU. I doubt that a party that is basically the successor of post-fascist AN without the moderate wing, can inherit (Southern) AN, FI and CCD-CDU at the same time.

No, but it doesn't need to, because Lega is far from inexistent in the South, and it would "inherit" part of those votes.

[BigSerg]

The election results were not "good" for the left.

Tuscany Right Increase 10.1%
Apulian  Right Increase 6.2%