Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Voting has now officially started in Italy!

To the next update.

I have just finished my lunch break, during which I was able to go to Mass, vote at my precinct, and also actually have lunch.

To the next update.

Sunday voting has just finished.

Turnout in the precinct I am working at was about 33% today. I am disappointed. It is very low and is most likely not going to soar tomorrow. I haven't seen data about Italy as a whole, though.

To the next update.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1307812978511753216

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout is 56% in Valle d'Aosta, 51% in Veneto, 48% in Tuscany and Marche, 44% in Puglia and Liguria, 43% in Campania. Higher than the national average across the board (thankfully), but still far from stellar. We can hope that tomorrow will bring the total above 50% everywhere. Turnout in Tuscany at the last EU elections was over 60% - I doubt we will get there this time.

Trying to read signals into the provincial turnout patterns, there might be some encouraging patterns in Tuscany. Firenze has the highest turnout, and Siena is on par with the regional average. Pisa (normally a left-leaning province but also Ceccardi's home turf) is above average, but the traditional areas of right-wing strength (Massa-Carrara, Lucca, Arezzo, Grosseto) are all below average. That might be what saves Giani, although of course it might change tomorrow.

I couldn't make much of the Puglia pattern, especially since it's not clear where candidates have their areas of strength (somehow Emiliano actually underperformed in Taranto in 2015). Marche are inconclusive as well. In Campania, the good omens for De Luca might be confirmed: turnout is above average in Salerno and Avellino, and below average in Naples.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Turnout is 56% in Valle d'Aosta, 51% in Veneto, 48% in Tuscany and Marche, 44% in Puglia and Liguria, 43% in Campania. Higher than the national average across the board (thankfully), but still far from stellar. We can hope that tomorrow will bring the total above 50% everywhere. Turnout in Tuscany at the last EU elections was over 60% - I doubt we will get there this time.

Trying to read signals into the provincial turnout patterns, there might be some encouraging patterns in Tuscany. Firenze has the highest turnout, and Siena is on par with the regional average. Pisa (normally a left-leaning province but also Ceccardi's home turf) is above average, but the traditional areas of right-wing strength (Massa-Carrara, Lucca, Arezzo, Grosseto) are all below average. That might be what saves Giani, although of course it might change tomorrow.

I couldn't make much of the Puglia pattern, especially since it's not clear where candidates have their areas of strength (somehow Emiliano actually underperformed in Taranto in 2015). Marche are inconclusive as well. In Campania, the good omens for De Luca might be confirmed: turnout is above average in Salerno and Avellino, and below average in Naples.

I don't think that Campanian provinces are as clear cut as you make them (and certainly the city of Naples is... hmm... not a right-wing stronghold) unless both De Luca and Caldoro have a sh**tload of local appeal, but we'll see. I agree with the rest.


Also: Sicily and Sardinia
The usual low turnout of the islands aches.


In other news, the second day of voting has just started!

To the next update.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Naples was Caldoro's best province in 2015 (I know, I was surprised too), and Salerno is De Luca Country par excellence. So yeah, my guess in a region like Campania is that the favorite son effect is likely to be strong. We'll see soon enough, of course.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In other news, the second day of voting has just started!

To the next update.

Voting has now officially ended in Italy!

Final turnout at the precinct I am working at is around 45%.

I will spend the next couple hours counting votes.
As every other precinct starts counting, an Italy-sized hellish dumpster fire is going to begin soon.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1308029433257889792

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The precinct I am at voted 65% Yes and 35% No.
Not a good start at all.

[SPQR]

65-35 in favour of the reform is what exit polls are saying too - pretty underwhelming result

For the rest, all as expected
Campania - center-left above 50%
Veneto - center-right with Zaia above 70%
Marche - center-right around 50%
Liguria - center-right above 50%
Toscana - tilt center-left (45-42 but within MoE)
Puglia - pure tossup, all exit polls are giving the exact same intervals for Emiliano (centerleft) and Fitto (centerleft)

[jaichind]

Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

[Mike88]

New projection gives 67.8% for YES and 32.2% for NO.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.

[Mike88]

Results from the referendum: https://elezioni.repubblica.it/2020/referendum/20200920/italia?ref=RHPPTP-DE

20.7% counted:

69.2% Yes
30.8% No

54.3% Turnout

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So the regional pattern for the referendum seems to track M5S support pretty closely--over 70% in most of the South (plus TAA for some reason), under 60% in FVG, 60-70% everywhere else. It's actually breaking 80% in Molise.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hey folks, I'm already up. Of course the counting is less than halfway in for the referendum and has barely started for the regionals. Oh well.

The writing is clearly on the wall for the referendum. It's going to be Yes above 65%, with a decent chance of above 70%. That's definitely an underperformance, though not as big of one as I was hoping for.

The first regional projections are hopeful, but of course we have to wait and see. Fingers crossed that Emiliano can pull it off in Puglia too.

[SPQR]

An exit poll has shown 55% of PD voters have voted No in the referendum.
Zingaretti's next few months might be rocky regardless of the regional elections.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.

"...and find a tradcath"

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Fingers crossed!!!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

An exit poll has shown 55% of PD voters have voted No in the referendum.
Zingaretti's next few months might be rocky regardless of the regional elections.

I am one of them.

I'm sorry for Zingaretti though.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.

"...and find a tradcath"

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Fingers crossed!!!

...who the hell has an ideology-specific wake

Never mind, I digress. First results trickling in from Veneto and it looks like a real ZAIASLIDE.

[SPQR]

No is winning in the city centres of Milan, Turin and Rome. Usual centre-periphery trend.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

No is winning in the city centres of Milan, Turin and Rome. Usual centre-periphery trend.

Lol this is *exactly* what I was expecting to happen.

Digressing, the precinct I am at was won by Toti (narrowly) but PD and Lega tied exactly at 66 votes and I find it funny.

[Antonio the Sixth]

An exit poll has shown 55% of PD voters have voted No in the referendum.
Zingaretti's next few months might be rocky regardless of the regional elections.

I don't think Zingaretti should have that much trouble because of it, as long as PD hold up decently in the regional elections. He did his job out of loyalty to the government, but it was always known that there was some opposition from within the PD base. With Yes winning nationally, I don't think there will be much interest in relitigating the issue, within the PD or anywhere else.

[GlobeSoc]

is there a regional election link?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

is there a regional election link?

Tuscany

Everywhere else

[MaxQue]

Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.

"...and find a tradcath"

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Fingers crossed!!!

...who the hell has an ideology-specific wake

Never mind, I digress. First results trickling in from Veneto and it looks like a real ZAIASLIDE.

Tradcats do. They refuse the Vatican II reforms and so, it's still all said in Latin.