Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein  (Read 169920 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2018, 03:46:07 AM »

  Is he talking about cleansing of cities of Roma or migrants or both?

He'll let his supporters read into it what they want, of course.
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Andrea
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« Reply #26 on: June 24, 2018, 04:56:34 PM »

Second round of local elections took place today

Votes are being counted

PD will hold Ancona. Expected after first round result
PD is (surprisingly) ahead so far in Brindisi.

5 Stars are gaining Imola from PD. They are leading also in Avellino

Lega & Co take Terni as expected
They are ahead also in Massa

Pisa and Siena are too close to call. PD may lose both of them
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Andrea
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« Reply #27 on: June 24, 2018, 05:15:11 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2018, 05:18:37 PM by Andrea »

Lega and allies have opened a lead in Pisa now. 52 to 48% when 55 out of 86 polling stations have been reported.

PD is 200 votes behind also in Siena now with 40/50 reported.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #28 on: June 24, 2018, 06:35:00 PM »

Christ's sake. Disband and start over.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #29 on: June 25, 2018, 05:07:45 AM »

Christ's sake. Disband and start over.
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« Reply #30 on: June 25, 2018, 06:13:59 AM »

Not sure about Pisa and Siena in particular, but isn't Tuscany a left stronghold?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #31 on: June 25, 2018, 07:08:44 AM »

Very much so.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #32 on: June 25, 2018, 08:30:44 AM »

The right indeed won Siena and Pisa.
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EPG
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« Reply #33 on: June 25, 2018, 02:48:40 PM »

The Italian contradiction: Tuscany may be a historical left stronghold, but its left voters look quite a bit like Lega Nord voters from Lombardy.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #34 on: June 25, 2018, 02:50:04 PM »

The Italian contradiction: Tuscany may be a historical left stronghold, but its left voters look quite a bit like Lega Nord voters from Lombardy.

What the hell is that supposed to mean?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2018, 06:12:56 PM »

The right indeed won Siena and Pisa.

The former verging on 'Con gain Rhondda' territory, frankly.
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EPG
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« Reply #36 on: June 26, 2018, 01:33:00 PM »

I didn't think it was controversial that Tuscan PCI-PDS-PD affinity, including its strength among small business people and above-average earners quite disproportionate to elsewhere in Italy, was a sort of puzzle that had to be explained historically. Put another way, a lot of relatively higher-income people voted left in Tuscany, who would have voted right elsewhere, including in standard models of party systems, and this is interesting.

There's no inherent socio-economic reason why the old PCI Tuscan base should still be PD voters, except "political culture and socialisation", which can be eroded over time, and is eroding rapidly. There are simply not that many sociological differences between 21st century Tuscany and, to take an example, Lombardy. The developments of different kinds of opposition to Italian national-liberalism that made Lombardy Christian/white, and Tuscany Communist/red, appear to simply not matter any more. What remains is sympathy, which is contestable.

This isn't controversial, is it? We already saw this realignment happening in the last elections. Tuscany votes a lot less PD than it used to vote PCI, but often districts in big cities like Milan vote more PD than they used to, back in the old party systems. This is a forum for comparative politics. Would we expect a generic Social Democratic party to win Siena or Pisa, the way PD used to? Would we expect them to do unusually well in Tuscany at all?
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #37 on: June 29, 2018, 04:25:20 AM »

New Bidimedia poll.

M5S 28.6 (-3.Cool
League 27.7 (+3)
PD 19.2 (+1.1)
FI 8.9 (-0.9)
FDI 4 (+0.4)
LEU 2.3 (=)
PAP 1.7 (+0.1)
+EU 1.7 (=)
NCI 0.9 (-0.2)
CPI 0.8 (+0.1)
PDF 0.7 (=)
Togheter (PSI-Greens) 0.5 (=)
Italy to Italians 0.5 (+0.1)
PC 0.4 (=)
SVP 0.4 (=)
Civic-Popular 0.3 (=)
Others 1.4 (+0.2)

Centre-right (League, FI, FDI, NCI) 41.5 (+2.3)
Centre-left (PD, +EU, Togheter, SVP, Civic-Popular) 22.1 (+1)

Results by region
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #38 on: July 30, 2018, 06:29:20 AM »

So there's been a boom in racist violence in Italy over the past month or two, and Salvini is calling it fake news.

POPULISM Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley
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SPQR
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« Reply #39 on: November 26, 2018, 09:10:19 AM »

I tend to avoid talking about Italian politics lately, given its sad state right now, but it's only fair to give an update on the situation.

POLLS
Lega - 30,8% (17,4% in March GE)
Movimento 5 Stelle - 26,2% (32,7%)
PD - 17,1% (18,8%)
Forza Italia - 9,4% (14%)
Fratelli d'Italia - 3,9% (4,4%)
Liberi e Uguali - 2,6% (3,4%)
+Europa - 2,4% (2,6%)
Potere al Popolo - 2% (1,1%)

Threshold is at 3%

Lega keeps growing at an astonishing pace, at the expense of the M5S and its (former?) ally, Berlusconi's Forza Italia. The center-right bloc (Lega-Forza Italia-Fratelli d'Italia) would easily have an absolute majority [only 40% or so is necessary, given the electoral law mixing PR (66%) and uninominal seats (33%)], and there is talk that the next GE might be at the same time as the European Elections in May.
This is in part due to Salvini being costantly at the center of the stage, and making good (at least in the media) on his promises to stop immigration, while the M5S has lots of difficulties in claryifying who will benefit from its universal basic income proposal, and specifying its details.

PD has remained more or less costant, which is not too bad given how it's been waiting for the new congress ever since March (more on this below), while Potere al Popolo (which try to resemble Melenchon's France Insoumise) is trying to become the left's main party at the expense of Liberi e Uguali (which might not even be a thing anymore, since its components, Sinistra Italiana, former communists, and MDP, former members of PD, have fought very bitterly).




PD CONGRESS
After Renzi's resignation as secretary following the GE disaster, there's been lots of speculation about the future of PD. Now, the path to the next congress, and the open primaries to elect the new secretary, is officially on. The primaries should be at the beginning of March (possibly on the 3rd of March, 364 days after the last general elections...).
Renzi will not run, to the disappointment of his die-hard fans (which are still a good chunk of PD's members).
Zingaretti, Lazio's governor, is the frontrunner, trying to shift PD to the left and pretty much attacking everything that was done by PD under Renzi's leadership. Around Zingaretti there is a colition of the former minority and some of Renzi's supporters, such as former PM Gentiloni and former PD Secretary Franceschini (whose political history is based on jumping on the bandwagon).
Zingaretti is not very charismatic, and his main pros are the fact that he announced his candidacy early (the day after winning the regional elections, which were also on March 4th), and that many feel the need to move on after Renzi.

The more reformist candidates are Minniti, Martina and Richetti.
Minniti, former Minister of Interior, is known for the treaties signed with Libya concerning checks on migration and camps to contain those trying to sail towards Italy. Admittedly, at its peak and without any help from the EU, the migration crisis needed some kind of control, but his political platform is pretty much based on migration. Those who think that the only way to stop Salvini is to stop immigration support him, other are very tepid. Many of Renzi's supporters will support him.

Martina, former minister of Agriculture and at-interim secretary from March until now, is a more intermediate candidate between Zingaretti and Minniti. Nannicini, economist and Renzi's chief economic advisor, Orfini (PD's president), and Delrio (former Minister of Infrastructure and current PD whip in the House of Representatives) are amongst his main supporters.
Nannicini summarized Martina's platform as "pride and restlessness", therefore not wanting to do an U-turn on the work done by the PD-led governments in the last 5 years, while also being aware that the political situation is extremely serious, that errors were made and there need to be changes.
Martina's first proposal is to abolish the Bossi-Fini law which destroyed the management of legal immigration flows. This is in stark contrast to Minniti's approach. He's personally my favourite right now, if anything because he acknowledges the need to avoid the primary simply being a pro vs anti Renzi referendum, which would lead to nothing.

Lastly, Richetti is an unorthodox Renzi supporter, who has always tried to distinguish himself, at least in form if not in substance. He's running as the youngish candidate, but there has been very little policy-wise from him, and now that Martina is running as a more credible unorthodox Renzi supporter, there is talk that the two may join forces (as openly stated by Martina).

Amongst minor candidates, there are Boccia, representing the more openly pro-M5S wing which responds to Puglia's governor Emiliano; Damiano, left-wing former minister who may eventually support Zingaretti, and Corallo, a 30-year old from the youth organization who made a name for himself with controversial remarks on the social media against the party's leadership (and whom I know personally since he's from my .

Latest polls have it as:
Zingaretti 33%
Minniti 25%
Martina 15%
Richetti 8%
Boccia 4%
Damiano 2%
Corallo 1%

There will be two rounds of voting. The first one is for members-only, and the top three will then go to the open primaries. There, one needs 50%+1 of the votes in order to get an absolute majority in the National Assembly, otherwise the next secretary will be voted by the Assembly (thus leaving the door open to a deal between the second and third-placed, an "accusation" that Zingaretti is already throwing around).



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PSOL
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« Reply #40 on: November 26, 2018, 11:16:49 AM »

I tend to avoid talking about Italian politics lately, given its sad state right now, but it's only fair to give an update on the situation.

POLLS
Lega - 30,8% (17,4% in March GE)
Movimento 5 Stelle - 26,2% (32,7%)
PD - 17,1% (18,8%)
Forza Italia - 9,4% (14%)
Fratelli d'Italia - 3,9% (4,4%)
Liberi e Uguali - 2,6% (3,4%)
+Europa - 2,4% (2,6%)
Potere al Popolo - 2% (1,1%)

Threshold is at 3%

Lega keeps growing at an astonishing pace, at the expense of the M5S and its (former?) ally, Berlusconi's Forza Italia. The center-right bloc (Lega-Forza Italia-Fratelli d'Italia) would easily have an absolute majority [only 40% or so is necessary, given the electoral law mixing PR (66%) and uninominal seats (33%)], and there is talk that the next GE might be at the same time as the European Elections in May.
This is in part due to Salvini being costantly at the center of the stage, and making good (at least in the media) on his promises to stop immigration, while the M5S has lots of difficulties in claryifying who will benefit from its universal basic income proposal, and specifying its details.

PD has remained more or less costant, which is not too bad given how it's been waiting for the new congress ever since March (more on this below), while Potere al Popolo (which try to resemble Melenchon's France Insoumise) is trying to become the left's main party at the expense of Liberi e Uguali (which might not even be a thing anymore, since its components, Sinistra Italiana, former communists, and MDP, former members of PD, have fought very bitterly).




PD CONGRESS
After Renzi's resignation as secretary following the GE disaster, there's been lots of speculation about the future of PD. Now, the path to the next congress, and the open primaries to elect the new secretary, is officially on. The primaries should be at the beginning of March (possibly on the 3rd of March, 364 days after the last general elections...).
Renzi will not run, to the disappointment of his die-hard fans (which are still a good chunk of PD's members).
Zingaretti, Lazio's governor, is the frontrunner, trying to shift PD to the left and pretty much attacking everything that was done by PD under Renzi's leadership. Around Zingaretti there is a colition of the former minority and some of Renzi's supporters, such as former PM Gentiloni and former PD Secretary Franceschini (whose political history is based on jumping on the bandwagon).
Zingaretti is not very charismatic, and his main pros are the fact that he announced his candidacy early (the day after winning the regional elections, which were also on March 4th), and that many feel the need to move on after Renzi.

The more reformist candidates are Minniti, Martina and Richetti.
Minniti, former Minister of Interior, is known for the treaties signed with Libya concerning checks on migration and camps to contain those trying to sail towards Italy. Admittedly, at its peak and without any help from the EU, the migration crisis needed some kind of control, but his political platform is pretty much based on migration. Those who think that the only way to stop Salvini is to stop immigration support him, other are very tepid. Many of Renzi's supporters will support him.

Martina, former minister of Agriculture and at-interim secretary from March until now, is a more intermediate candidate between Zingaretti and Minniti. Nannicini, economist and Renzi's chief economic advisor, Orfini (PD's president), and Delrio (former Minister of Infrastructure and current PD whip in the House of Representatives) are amongst his main supporters.
Nannicini summarized Martina's platform as "pride and restlessness", therefore not wanting to do an U-turn on the work done by the PD-led governments in the last 5 years, while also being aware that the political situation is extremely serious, that errors were made and there need to be changes.
Martina's first proposal is to abolish the Bossi-Fini law which destroyed the management of legal immigration flows. This is in stark contrast to Minniti's approach. He's personally my favourite right now, if anything because he acknowledges the need to avoid the primary simply being a pro vs anti Renzi referendum, which would lead to nothing.

Lastly, Richetti is an unorthodox Renzi supporter, who has always tried to distinguish himself, at least in form if not in substance. He's running as the youngish candidate, but there has been very little policy-wise from him, and now that Martina is running as a more credible unorthodox Renzi supporter, there is talk that the two may join forces (as openly stated by Martina).

Amongst minor candidates, there are Boccia, representing the more openly pro-M5S wing which responds to Puglia's governor Emiliano; Damiano, left-wing former minister who may eventually support Zingaretti, and Corallo, a 30-year old from the youth organization who made a name for himself with controversial remarks on the social media against the party's leadership (and whom I know personally since he's from my .

Latest polls have it as:
Zingaretti 33%
Minniti 25%
Martina 15%
Richetti 8%
Boccia 4%
Damiano 2%
Corallo 1%

There will be two rounds of voting. The first one is for members-only, and the top three will then go to the open primaries. There, one needs 50%+1 of the votes in order to get an absolute majority in the National Assembly, otherwise the next secretary will be voted by the Assembly (thus leaving the door open to a deal between the second and third-placed, an "accusation" that Zingaretti is already throwing around).




What’s the situation on the ground with the EU-Italian budget negotiations? How has that affected polls?

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rob in cal
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« Reply #41 on: November 29, 2018, 11:40:01 AM »

  Any thoughts on the new immigration and security law now passed by the lower house. Does it go significantly in the direction that the League and other right wing parties want, or is it more for show?
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italian-boy
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« Reply #42 on: December 03, 2018, 09:47:42 AM »

  Any thoughts on the new immigration and security law now passed by the lower house. Does it go significantly in the direction that the League and other right wing parties want, or is it more for show?

It significantly hinders the current system built to integrate the migrants who are acknowledged the refugee status (which is widely seen as working well, ensuring that they learn Italian and do internships while in small communities), literally putting hundreds of people on the street.
There are some "common sense" measures in the bill, but mostly they are for show and will have a very negative impact on migrants' integration and on their lives.


As for the budget negotiations, the budget law is gradually losing popularity thanks to the sh*tshow that the government has put together.
There are still no details whatsover on who's gonna benefit from early retirement ("quota 100") and the universal basic income ("reddito di cittadinanza"). All it has caused has been a rise in the BTP-bund spread, and it now seems that the government will have to back down and decrease the deficit from 2.4% to 2%, but it's not clear what will make room for it.

Electorally wise, Lega has benefitted in the last weeks, probably because of the show they have made on immigration, and because they have delivered on the tax amnesty and (partially) on early retirement. M5S is still going down, also because of the many scandals concerning Di Maio and his father's firm (regarding unpaid taxes, buildings built without permits, and workers hired without a contract).
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italian-boy
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« Reply #43 on: December 03, 2018, 09:48:25 AM »

Also, regarding PD's primaries, Richetti has dropped out and officially endorsed Martina (they are now running as a Martina-Richetti ticket).
I'm curious to see the next few polls on the matter.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #44 on: December 03, 2018, 11:29:03 AM »

Prediction: Renzi will randomly become Prime Minister again in like two decades.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #45 on: December 03, 2018, 11:49:57 AM »

Prediction: Renzi will randomly become Prime Minister again in like two decades.

Given the way Italian politics works, I'd be surprised if this didn't happen
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #46 on: December 05, 2018, 06:36:40 PM »

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italian-boy
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« Reply #47 on: December 07, 2018, 04:18:19 AM »

There's complete chaos in PD.
Minniti has dropped out, apparently after a bitter conversation on the phone with Renzi.
Renzi announced the creation of "civic committees" at his last Leopolda convention, two months ago, and it was always rumoured that they were the first stage of his new party.
He has done little to silence those rumours, and now did not throw his full support to Minniti, who left only 18 days after announcing his candidacy.

There's only 5 days left to present a new name, otherwise it will be a Zingaretti vs Martina showdown. Renzi's close supporters are in chaos, unless Bellanova (a female former unionist from Puglia, quite charismatic) runs I guess they will support Martina, but some are also open to joining Renzi's new party, even though the way he is behaving lately is alienating many more.
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Velasco
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« Reply #48 on: December 07, 2018, 06:32:04 AM »

I wonder if the new party launched by Renzi is going to be more similar to En Marche! or Ciudadanos. I have more doubts, however, concerning the viability of the project.
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italian-boy
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« Reply #49 on: December 07, 2018, 06:38:16 AM »

I wonder if the new party launched by Renzi is going to be more similar to En Marche! or Ciudadanos. I have more doubts, however, concerning the viability of the project.

It's not official, to be clear. And yesterday night he said that he has no intention of launching a new party.
But, speaking as somebody who is a PD member and knows a few people close to Renzi, it seems highly likely.

Amongst the possible names for this party there were "Libdem" and "Cittadini", which is Italian for Ciudadanos...
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