Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Death of a Salesman]

Again. Humor me as the ignorant but curious person here but what will this likely mean? What’s on the table? Do we have enough information to determine what they are going do?

We don't, no. We can safely assume she'll do some pretty heinous stuff, but speculating on what exactly is a fool's errand. Meloni is very right-wing, but she's also shown a lot of pragmatism and seems to be going out of her way to reassure the EU, so in terms of social policy she will probably choose her battlefields carefully.

Also, most of the stuff you cited are very America-specific issues that aren't even discussed in Italy at all. The Italian right bears some similarity with the US right, but not nearly that much.

When does Meloni take over? I remember it took like three months to decide on Conte after 2018 but with such as big win it might be different?

It shouldn't take nearly as long, unless the rift with Salvini gets a lot worse than it looks right now. The right-wing parties have already agreed to govern together long before the elections, so all that's left to do now is hash out the details of who gets what. By contrast, M5S and Lega were starting from scratch in 2018 and needed time to feel each other out on pretty much everything.

One symbolic but important thing to consider is that we're coming up on the 100-year anniversary of the March on Rome, on October 28. Meloni will probably want to be all set up at least a week before that, so as to avoid any unfortunate parallels.

Thanks for humoring me. Looks like there is going to be some "exciting events" out of Italy, if you use jaichiand's parlance.

Well, we know she questions gay adoption rights and that a regional government her party won control over in 2020 imposed a 7 week limit on abortion.  Something resembling the DeSantis/Youngkin LGBT educational policies also seems pretty likely to happen.  They also want pretty serious immigration restrictions and appear to oppose laws designed to give any special workplace protections to women. 

On the other hand, her party appears to be more moderate than I would have expected on climate change, i.e. they believe there is a meaningful role for government to play in containing it and fighting pollution in general.  Maybe this is just an American bias, though, because a national right wing leader saying the government should be involved in regulating CO2 at all would be unusual here.  I think the Western European right pretty commonly agrees to CO2 regulation.  They are apparently big on nuclear as the solution.

While Italy has its own deep traditions, the social conservatism here really does look equivalent to a US Southern state or Republican presidential nominee, which has been really rare in Western Europe in the last couple of generations (indeed, most of Western Europe absolutely freaked out about it in Poland, etc.).

One of the big differences between Italy and Western Europe is that a large share of Italians are genuinely socially conservative. On questions about abortion, Italians are a bit to the left of Americans, while on questions about homosexuality Italians tend to be to the right, but the general sense of social conservatism is similar between the two countries, and quite distinct from the UK or the Netherlands where active social conservatism is now rather fringe.

[Oliver]

The document "Camera_riparto_italia_20220925" is quite interesting. Is there a similar document for the Senate?

I’m really trying to understand how the seats are assigned to the multi-member districts? Is there an explanation in English?

How are this compensation seats („compensazione“) and the seats which are finally assigned to the lists calculated?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Anyway, I don't think the results of the Sicilian regional election were actually reported here so I'll do now: Renato Schifani (CDX) won with 42%, Cateno De Luca (SUD CHIAMA NORD) was second with 24% and then Caterina Chinnici (CSX) with 16% came narrowly ahead of Nunzio Di Paola (M5S) with 15%. Gaetano Armao, the candidate of Calenzi, got a meager 2%.

Compared to the results for the national Parliament, this is a big overperformance for De Luca but surprisingly also a smaller one for the right, while predictably a big underperformance for M5S; the centre-left did almost identically, and A/IV underperformed by a relatively significant amount.

De Luca obviously landslided in the province of Messina, he also narrowly lost Enna while all the other provinces had an ample margin for Schifani. AG was the best province for Schifani, EN the best for Chinnici (very hilarious but common in recent times) and CL the best for Di Paola. A list called "DC - Democrazia Cristiana" got a significant number of votes, possibly over 5%, something which will surprise no one. I should point out there are still quite a few precincts left to report in the province of Siracusa, but they shouldn't affect the final result except by a fraction of a percentage point.

[xelas81]

Anyway, I don't think the results of the Sicilian regional election were actually reported here so I'll do now: Renato Schifani (CDX) won with 42%, Cateno De Luca (SUD CHIAMA NORD) was second with 24% and then Caterina Chinnici (CSX) with 16% came narrowly ahead of Nunzio Di Paola (M5S) with 15%. Gaetano Armao, the candidate of Calenzi, got a meager 2%.

Compared to the results for the national Parliament, this is a big overperformance for De Luca but surprisingly also a smaller one for the right, while predictably a big underperformance for M5S; the centre-left did almost identically, and A/IV underperformed by a relatively significant amount.

De Luca obviously landslided in the province of Messina, he also narrowly lost Enna while all the other provinces had an ample margin for Schifani. AG was the best province for Schifani, EN the best for Chinnici (very hilarious but common in recent times) and CL the best for Di Paola. A list called "DC - Democrazia Cristiana" got a significant number of votes, possibly over 5%, something which will surprise no one. I should point out there are still quite a few precincts left to report in the province of Siracusa, but they shouldn't affect the final result except by a fraction of a percentage point.

Is the regional elections pure PR? If so, the CDX doesn't have a majority by themselves and have to make some sort of agreement with other parties.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Anyway, I don't think the results of the Sicilian regional election were actually reported here so I'll do now: Renato Schifani (CDX) won with 42%, Cateno De Luca (SUD CHIAMA NORD) was second with 24% and then Caterina Chinnici (CSX) with 16% came narrowly ahead of Nunzio Di Paola (M5S) with 15%. Gaetano Armao, the candidate of Calenzi, got a meager 2%.

Compared to the results for the national Parliament, this is a big overperformance for De Luca but surprisingly also a smaller one for the right, while predictably a big underperformance for M5S; the centre-left did almost identically, and A/IV underperformed by a relatively significant amount.

De Luca obviously landslided in the province of Messina, he also narrowly lost Enna while all the other provinces had an ample margin for Schifani. AG was the best province for Schifani, EN the best for Chinnici (very hilarious but common in recent times) and CL the best for Di Paola. A list called "DC - Democrazia Cristiana" got a significant number of votes, possibly over 5%, something which will surprise no one. I should point out there are still quite a few precincts left to report in the province of Siracusa, but they shouldn't affect the final result except by a fraction of a percentage point.

Is the regional elections pure PR? If so, the CDX doesn't have a majority by themselves and have to make some sort of agreement with other parties.

Not quite, as always there's a seat prize for the winner - although in this case it is small and does not automatically guarantee a majority: Crocetta didn't get one in 2012 and Musumeci almost didn't in 2017. However Schifani got close enough to 50% that I assume his coalition will easily reach a majority of the seats.

[MRCVzla]

The document "Camera_riparto_italia_20220925" is quite interesting. Is there a similar document for the Senate?

I’m really trying to understand how the seats are assigned to the multi-member districts? Is there an explanation in English?

How are this compensation seats („compensazione“) and the seats which are finally assigned to the lists calculated?

Senate seat calculation are here: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/daithome/documenti/Senato_riparto_italia_20220925.pdf
All reports/Open Data downloable are there: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/report/20220925

As they tried to explain in earlier posts, the whole PR seat distribution process into constituencies is very complex (the italian media called the calculus as "the Flipper effect"), at the House first calculate nationwide (minus Aosta Valley), then at constituency level (first coalitions/single lists above 3%/regional-minority lists above 20%, later lists above 3% within coalitions), then correct when the results don't match with the nationwide calc, and then distribute within the proportional districts, in the Senate nationwide vote only matters for thresholds as regional/constituency seat distribution prevails, then correct by PR district level.

The "compensation seats" are the corrections to the nationwide result, it's a game of rests, quotients, etc, the "lista eccedentaria"/"lista deficitaria" calcs may help as the corrections happens when the we have an extra "integral quotient" seat in a lower "quotient decimal" attribution.

The seat distribution in the Chamber may change again when all the missing precincts (specially at Sicily cames) or when the Corte di Cassazione jury falls with the final results.

Anyway, I don't think the results of the Sicilian regional election were actually reported here so I'll do now: Renato Schifani (CDX) won with 42%, Cateno De Luca (SUD CHIAMA NORD) was second with 24% and then Caterina Chinnici (CSX) with 16% came narrowly ahead of Nunzio Di Paola (M5S) with 15%. Gaetano Armao, the candidate of Calenzi, got a meager 2%.

Compared to the results for the national Parliament, this is a big overperformance for De Luca but surprisingly also a smaller one for the right, while predictably a big underperformance for M5S; the centre-left did almost identically, and A/IV underperformed by a relatively significant amount.

De Luca obviously landslided in the province of Messina, he also narrowly lost Enna while all the other provinces had an ample margin for Schifani. AG was the best province for Schifani, EN the best for Chinnici (very hilarious but common in recent times) and CL the best for Di Paola. A list called "DC - Democrazia Cristiana" got a significant number of votes, possibly over 5%, something which will surprise no one. I should point out there are still quite a few precincts left to report in the province of Siracusa, but they shouldn't affect the final result except by a fraction of a percentage point.

The DC Sicily is led by former regional president Salvatore "Totò" Cuffaro, barred from life to hold office for a mafia-link sentence who spended jail time between 2011 and 2015. He seems retain some of his vote base after all this years, or the list also was helped to have to support of the mayor heir of the DC and their "crusader shield", the UDC.

All the center-right list in Sicily were over the 5% threshold, apart of the "big three", also the other moderate list hold seats, "Popular and Autonomists" led by former minister Francesco Saverio Romano (elected in the House) and the MPA of other former regional president Raffaele Lombardo.

[MRCVzla]

Not quite, as always there's a seat prize for the winner - although in this case it is small and does not automatically guarantee a majority: Crocetta didn't get one in 2012 and Musumeci almost didn't in 2017. However Schifani got close enough to 50% that I assume his coalition will easily reach a majority of the seats.

The majority prize are extra 7 seats for Regional Presidential candidate in a list led by himself (the runner-up, in this case Cateno De Luca is also elected to the Regional Assembly). Majority is 36/70 seats so will may had one.

[Former President tack50]

The chart above has given me pause re: how "educational trends" may simply be downstream from age cohorts and the expanded access to/incentive for education among younger voters. Certainly there is some class aspect to educational background, but it can be overstated in a place like Italy (where education has lagged most globalized nations).

I'm late, but I will say that this is certainly true. The more educated categories also usually skew younger than the general population while the opposite is true for the more educated categories. So depending on country, sometimes splits by education can end up as a proxy for voting by age.

(For what's worth that's also something applicable for Spain, particularly for the most "extreme" categories like "no formal education" or "elementary school only"; so I'm not too surprised it's applicable in Italy too even in spite of a very different political system)

[Andrea]

The document "Camera_riparto_italia_20220925" is quite interesting. Is there a similar document for the Senate?

I’m really trying to understand how the seats are assigned to the multi-member districts? Is there an explanation in English?

How are this compensation seats („compensazione“) and the seats which are finally assigned to the lists calculated?

Senate seat calculation are here: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/daithome/documenti/Senato_riparto_italia_20220925.pdf
All reports/Open Data downloable are there: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/report/20220925

As they tried to explain in earlier posts, the whole PR seat distribution process into constituencies is very complex (the italian media called the calculus as "the Flipper effect"), at the House first calculate nationwide (minus Aosta Valley), then at constituency level (first coalitions/single lists above 3%/regional-minority lists above 20%, later lists above 3% within coalitions), then correct when the results don't match with the nationwide calc, and then distribute within the proportional districts, in the Senate nationwide vote only matters for thresholds as regional/constituency seat distribution prevails, then correct by PR district level.

The "compensation seats" are the corrections to the nationwide result, it's a game of rests, quotients, etc, the "lista eccedentaria"/"lista deficitaria" calcs may help as the corrections happens when the we have an extra "integral quotient" seat in a lower "quotient decimal" attribution.

The seat distribution in the Chamber may change again when all the missing precincts (specially at Sicily cames) or when the Corte di Cassazione jury falls with the final results.

It apparently changed today due to some corrections in Puglia.
Forza Italia seat moved from Foggia to Toranto (from Lanotte to De Palma).
In the Green/Left, Fratoianni's wife gets in instead someone in Emilia

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Absolutely hilarious map here. Lega's vote crashed utterly in the North (including both areas of traditional and newer strength) and in Central Italy but actually held up O.K. further south (actually increased in parts of Sicily hahahaha), where it has always been very weak, producing a quite ridiculous map.



Further collapse across the board, of course, including the final desertion of the bulk of what were once Forza Italia's core voters in Western Lombardy. What's left looks like a clientelist map more than a Berlusconi map.



Completely ridiculous map that to an extent tracks affluence, but which also has various other weird features all over the place.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Calenda is really a Tory isn't he? Save for the wrong random Southern strongholds and for a weaker result in Piedmont/Liguria this might as well be a map of the PLI at its post-war peak in the 1960s.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Calenda is really a Tory isn't he? Save for the wrong random Southern strongholds and for a weaker result in Piedmont/Liguria this might as well be a map of the PLI at its post-war peak in the 1960s.

I suppose when you weld Renzi's little 'Genepool DCs For Unspecified Reform' clique onto the personality cult of some aristocratic dilettante that completely absurd map does have a degree of ludicrous logic to it...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ignazio La Russa (FdI) was elected president of the Senate - crucially, without FI votes. Berlusconi still seemed to coveting that position, either for himself or for a fellow party member, and so attempted to make a power play by withdrawing his Senators from the vote. As it turned out, however, enough Senators from opposition parties ended up voting for La Russa anyway. Voting was secret, so we won't know who actually voted for La Russa, but regardless that's a pretty stinging humiliation for Berlusconi and an early victory for Meloni.

Tomorrow the House will elect its own president, and this time there seems to be a broad agreement for a Leghista. Once that's over with, government negotiations will begin in earnest.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Ignazio La Russa (FdI) was elected president of the Senate - crucially, without FI votes. Berlusconi still seemed to coveting that position, either for himself or for a fellow party member, and so attempted to make a power play by withdrawing his Senators from the vote. As it turned out, however, enough Senators from opposition parties ended up voting for La Russa anyway. Voting was secret, so we won't know who actually voted for La Russa, but regardless that's a pretty stinging humiliation for Berlusconi and an early victory for Meloni.

Tomorrow the House will elect its own president, and this time there seems to be a broad agreement for a Leghista. Once that's over with, government negotiations will begin in earnest.

Today the Chamber elected Lorenzo Fontana (Lega), this time with all the majority staying together. It's one especially controversial person after the other then.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ignazio La Russa (FdI) was elected president of the Senate - crucially, without FI votes. Berlusconi still seemed to coveting that position, either for himself or for a fellow party member, and so attempted to make a power play by withdrawing his Senators from the vote. As it turned out, however, enough Senators from opposition parties ended up voting for La Russa anyway. Voting was secret, so we won't know who actually voted for La Russa, but regardless that's a pretty stinging humiliation for Berlusconi and an early victory for Meloni.

Tomorrow the House will elect its own president, and this time there seems to be a broad agreement for a Leghista. Once that's over with, government negotiations will begin in earnest.

Berlusconi lol

The John Oliver piece on him was illuminating (it also included Renzi)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Speaking of Berlusconi, he is creating significant trouble to Meloni in the formation of the new government, between claiming certain posts for key FI figures have already been agreed on when they actually haven't and especially never shutting up about how good his personal relationship with his close friend Vladimir is. This while Meloni is inclined to give some ministries to experts/technocrats in her quest for institutional credibility.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Silvio Berlusconi managed to sink to new lows, and in the process create the first big headache for Meloni before she's even PM.

Yesterday and today leaked audio came out where Berlusconi parroted word for word Russia's narrative on the Ukraine war, arguing that it was all Zelenskyy's fault and that Putin had no choice. In another audio he waxes poetic about a "very sweet" letter Putin sent him for his birthday (reminds you of anyone?).

Needless to say, this is not what Meloni needed in the wake of the beginning of the official government formation process. She has gone to great pains to prove her pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO bona fides, only to have it constantly undermined by her "allies". Doubly awkward because the person slated to be foreign minister is Antonio Tajani of FI (Tajani himself has strong international credentials, having been the president of the EP among others, but coming from a party led by this f**king guy is still hard to look past). In a communiqué just a few minutes ago, Meloni said she would lead a pro-NATO government and that all her partners must agree to it, or there would be no government at all. This sounds as close as an ultimatum as we've heard from her.

We'll see exactly how this situation resolves itself. It probably will, but the way it does might say a lot about the future of Italy in Europe and the West.

[Former President tack50]

How the hell does crypto-fascist Meloni manage to be the adult in the room vs ""centre-right moderate"" Berlusconi?

I thought I'd have to support FI's moderating influence, but it seems somehow FdI are the real moderates? Italian politics never cease to disappoint I guess

Or is NATO/the EU an exception in policy?

[Antonio the Sixth]

How the hell does crypto-fascist Meloni manage to be the adult in the room vs ""centre-right moderate"" Berlusconi?

I thought I'd have to support FI's moderating influence, but it seems somehow FdI are the real moderates? Italian politics never cease to disappoint I guess

Or is NATO/the EU an exception in policy?

NATO/Ukraine is very much the sticking point for Berlusconi (and with Salvini too, but there's a lot more going on with Salvini). Berlusconi is usually more pro-EU than Meloni (although Meloni has moderated a lot on the EU during and after the campaign). On economic policy, meanwhile, it's less clear who is more right-wing (well, Lega is) but Meloni has struck a more "fiscally conservative" chord by pulling the breaks on some of Lega and FI's proposed tax cuts.

Ultimately, it's less of a question of who is more or less right-wing, and more a question of who is actually serious about governing a country in Italy's economic shape and with Italy's international position for the next 5 years. And it's pretty clear Meloni is the only one of the three in this regard.

[MRCVzla]

Berlusca crisis aside, today started formally the Consultation Round at the Quirinale, will last between today and tomorrow 21 with all the parliamentary groups and mixed group components formed yesterday at both Chambers. Despite all the controversy, all center-right groups (aka the soon-to-be majority) are expected to be received together by Matarella tomorrow in order to encharge Meloni a government quickly.


Camera dei Deputati:
Fratelli d'Italia: 118 (-1)*; caucus leader: Francesco Lollobrigida
Partito Democratico-Italia Democratica e Progressista: 69 (-1/+1)**; caucus leader: Debora Serrachiani
Lega-Salvini Premier: 66; caucus leader: Riccardo Molinari
MoVimento 5 Stelle: 52; caucus leader: Francesco Silvestri
Forza Italia-Berlusconi Presidente-PPE: 44 (-1)***; caucus leader: Alessandro Cattaneo
Azione-Italia Viva-Renew Europe: 21; caucus leader: Matteo Richetti (Azione)
Mixed group: 30
- Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra: 12 (asking for a repeal to form their own group)
- Noi Moderati-MAIE: 9 (+1)*
- +Europa: 3 (+1)**
- Linguistic minorities: 3 (-1)***
- Non inscrits: 3***

*Expelled FdI MP Calogero Pisano (the one who "praised Hitler") sits with the Noi Moderati-MAIE component
**éViva' Luca Pastorino helps +Europa to have their own component, while CD' sole MP Bruno Tabacci pulled a Casini and sits as independent in the PD caucus.
***Berlusconian "animalist" Michella Brambilla decided to sit in the mixed group as independent, the other 2 non inscrits are Sud Chiama Nord' Francesco Gallo and SVP' Dieter Steger (temporary i guess)

Senato della Repubblica:
Fratelli d'Italia: 63 (-3); caucus leader: Luca Ciriani
Partito Democratico-Italia Democratica e Progressista: 38 (-2); caucus leader: Simona Malpezzi
Lega Salvini Premier-Partito Sardo d'Azione: 29; caucus leader: Massimiliano Romeo
MoVimento 5 Stelle: 28; caucus leader: Barbara Floridia
Forza Italia Berlusconi Presidente: 18; caucus leader: Licia Ronzulli
Azione-Italia Viva-Renew Europe: 9; caucus leader: Raffaela Paita (IV)
For the Autonomy: 7; caucus leader: Julia Unterberger (SVP)*
Civici d'Italia-Noi Moderati-MAIE: 6; caucus leader: Antonio De Poli (UDC)**
Mixed group: 7 (the 4 Verdi-Sinistra senators plus 3 senators for life -Liliana Segre, Mario Monti and Renzo Piano)
Non member of any group: 1, senator for life Carlo Rubbia

*As the "tradition" goes, senators from Trentino-South Tyrol, Aosta Valley plus other regional/local parties and independents forms this tecnical group, with SVP and ScN senators, 2 PD senators elected in TAA plus senators for life Elena Cattaneo and former President Giorgio Napolitano.
**3 FdI senators help to form this group, with the new mininum number to form a group (6 senators)

Voting for chambers' Vice Presidents happen as "expected", with 2 Cdx (FdI and FI in the House, Lega and FI in the Senate), 1 PD and 1 M5S taking the posts, Azione-IV walked out in both votations as there was no agreement to ceede a post for them.

[MRCVzla]

After today meeting with all the Centre-right, Meloni has been commisioned by Mattarella and will take office tomorrow at 10:00 CET.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's the list of ministers:

Undersecretary to the PM: Mantovano (Ind, close to FdI)

Deputy PM, Infrastructures: Salvini (Lega)
Deputy PM, Foreign Affairs: Tajani (FI)
Economy: Giorgetti (Lega)
Defense: Crosetto (FdI)
Interior: Piantedosi (Ind, close to Lega)
Justice: Nordio (FdI)
Business: Urso (FdI)
Civil Service: Zangrillo (FI)
Environment and Energy: Pichetto Fratin (FI)
Agriculture: Lollobrigida (FdI)
Institutional Reforms: Casellati (FI)
Regional Affairs: Calderoli (Lega)
Relations with Parliament: Ciriani (FdI)
University and Research: Bernini (FI)
Labor and Social Policies: Calderone (Ind)
Culture: Sangiuliano (Ind)
Family, Natality and Equal Opportunity (lmao, sure): Roccella (FdI)
Disability: Locatelli (Lega)
Youth: Abodi (Ind)
Health: Schillaci (Ind)
Education: Valditara (Lega)
Tourism: Santanchè (FdI)
European Affairs: Fitto (FdI)
Sea and South (??): Musumeci (FdI)

Lega scored some victories with the economy ministry for Giorgetti (which Meloni originally wanted to pick a technocratic figure for), and still has a sympathetic figure in the Interior Ministry, but of course not Salvini himself. FI most notably had to give up the Justice Ministry, which Berlusconi really wanted for Casellati. Still, given recent events, it's frankly remarkable Tajani got the spot of Italy's chief diplomat. In the end the "technical" ministers are largely window dressing, which is probably not what Meloni wanted, but probably no big sacrifice either. Even Giorgetti won't be much of a thorn in her side, as he's known as a reliable pragmatist and no big friend of Salvini.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Are we really about to get Calderoli's and Fitto's careers resurrected? Not to mention Santanchè - whose nomination was very poorly received by my mother, someone who works in the tourism sector bureaucracy and who voted FdI last month. Lol, lmao.

Anyway, Lega getting Infrastructure, Economy and Regional Affairs at the same time is unfortunate in terms of the country's stability and unity going forward.

[Andrea]

Civil Service: Zangrillo (FI)
Environment and Energy: Pichetto Fratin (FI)

Meloni originally said the opposite when she first read the list...then they issued a statement switching them.

[Conservatopia]

Fitto has such a long career of failing upwards that he almost seems British. Which given his history, isn't a surprise.