Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Mike88]

Results by town/municipality:

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1574388089472122882

[Fuzzy Bear]

Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.

Those were more 2018 issues. My understanding is that this time the right's messaging focused more on the last few governments' failure to lastingly improve Italians' living standards. One of many reasons why I agree with Battista that the dynamics of this election are frankly not quite as depressing as those of the last one, even though the results of this one are even worse.

[Хahar 🤔]

Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.

Those were more 2018 issues. My understanding is that this time the right's messaging focused more on the last few governments' failure to lastingly improve Italians' living standards. One of many reasons why I agree with Battista that the dynamics of this election are frankly not quite as depressing as those of the last one, even though the results of this one are even worse.

Ideally the result of this election would be to make the political parties wake up to the concept of normal politics, where the voters make their choice and then the winner of the election forms government, instead of the endless procession of non-party technocratic governments Italy has had since 2011. It's no wonder that the electorate voted against that!

Unfortunately I think this is unlikely, since Italian politicians have realized that if they never take responsibility for anything they can never be voted out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So I guess just to make myself cry, I made this:



Map shows the seats where different alliance patterns could have prevailed over the right (of course that's somewhat theoretical, as not all of those votes would have stuck together in such a scenario):

Won by the Left: 12 (H), 7 (S)
Won by M5S: 10 (H), 5 (S)
Won by others: 4 (H), 3 (S)
Left+Calenda OR Left+M5S beats the Right: 13 (H), 4 (S)
Left+M5S beats the Right: 37 (H), 24 (S)
Left+M5S+Calenda+SVP beats the Right: 18 (H), 9 (S)
Right wins regardless: 53 (H), 22 (S)

So even a simple alliance with Calenda's clique, something that was actually on the verge of happening, would have taken the right a full 13 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate (confirming my intuition that the Right won a lot more marginals in the House than in the Senate). That alone would reduce their majorities to 224 and 111 respectively, which would put it in line with previous right-wing majorities. If the Left had somehow managed an alliance with M5S, meanwhile, they could actually have forced another hung parliament, with only 187 and 87 seats left for the Right. And an (obviously fantastical) "all against the Right" coalition would theoretically have clinched a pretty decisive majority.

Of course only the first scenario is even remotely realistic, but I guess we'll have to see what that means for Italy's future. Most pressingly, what this shows is that there is a real, strong potential for left-populist majorities in Southern Italy which could form the basis for an alternative to the current wave of right-wing populism. Whether M5S and PD can work together to make this potential a reality remains to be seen.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL The Atlantic:

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.

Those were more 2018 issues. My understanding is that this time the right's messaging focused more on the last few governments' failure to lastingly improve Italians' living standards. One of many reasons why I agree with Battista that the dynamics of this election are frankly not quite as depressing as those of the last one, even though the results of this one are even worse.

Ideally the result of this election would be to make the political parties wake up to the concept of normal politics, where the voters make their choice and then the winner of the election forms government, instead of the endless procession of non-party technocratic governments Italy has had since 2011. It's no wonder that the electorate voted against that!

Unfortunately I think this is unlikely, since Italian politicians have realized that if they never take responsibility for anything they can never be voted out.

The voters made their choice in 2013 and in 2018 and in both cases the result was that there was no winner - this was hardly respected in the first case because the stupid electoral system gave the left an artificial Chamber majority, but the second time they got exactly what they wanted (total confusion and the balance of power given to incompetent morons who don't know which side they're on except the side of The People ). You could argue that this was the case this year as well, since after all more people voted for the non-Right blocs combined than for the Right, but either way the electoral system prized the latter so that's moot.

However, it is certainly ironic that we could return to the "normal politics" that applied two and three decades ago with a majority for the same Right coalition (Giorgia Meloni was literally a minister in Berlusconi IV) whose complete irresponsibility last time they were in power precipitated the mess of the last decade, and it tells you a lot about how terrible our Left is at doing anything.

[Andrea]

At least 35 M5S MPs re-elected

Aiello Davide 
Ascari Stefania 
Baldino Vittoria 
Bruno Raffaele 
Cantone Luciano   
Castellone Maria Domenica 
Cataldi Roberto 
Croatti Marco 
D'orso Valentina 
Dell'olio Gianmauro 
Di Girolamo Gabriella 
Di Lauro Carmela 
Fede Giorgio 
Fenu Emiliano 
Floridia Barbara 
Fontana Ilaria 
Giuliano Carla 
Gubitosa Michele 
Guidolin Barbara 
L'abbate Pasqua 
Licheri Ettore Antonio 
Lomuti Arnaldo 
Maiorino Alessandra 
Naturale Gisella 
Pellegrini Marco 
Pirro Elisa 
Raffa Angela 
Ricciardi Riccardo 
Santillo Agostino 
Scerra Filippo 
Silvestri Francesco 
Sportiello Gilda 
Torto Daniela 
Traversi Roberto 
Turco Mario 


Some people like Conte were elected in more constituencies. I didn't check who was second in line behind them.

[Mike88]

Vote transfer diagram:

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1574701994866085894

[Mike88]

Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:

https://twitter.com/repubblica/status/1574612181806911490

Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader.

[Person Man]

An excellent summary on the state of the Italian election campaign:

Italy poised for glass ceiling-shattering vote, hard right turn

I guess LePen should of run in Italy.

[Andrea]

I see the 16 MPs elected by Green/Left list include 3 former M5S (2 sitting MPs and 1 sitting MEP).

[Lord Halifax]

I was wondering is Forza Italia likely to disintegrate when Berlusconi dies? and if so, who is most likely to get their vote?

Sorry for bumping this, but given how extremely old Berlusconi is (he turns 86 in a few days) it seems very likely he'll either die or become senile during the term, so what happens to FI afterwards? And if it disintegrates will that benefit FdI?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:

https://twitter.com/repubblica/status/1574612181806911490

Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha

Gotta respect Meloni for moving to sideline the Kidnapper so quickly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I was wondering is Forza Italia likely to disintegrate when Berlusconi dies? and if so, who is most likely to get their vote?

Sorry for bumping this, but given how extremely old Berlusconi is (he turns 86 in a few days) it seems very likely he'll either die or become senile during the term, so what happens to FI afterwards? And if it disintegrates will that benefit FdI?

The simple answer is that nobody knows. FI has always been Berlusconi's personal vehicle, and it is now more than ever given the exodus of the last "moderates" to Azione in the past few months. Personally I would guess it implodes once Berlusconi is out of the picture, with its voters likely migrating to other right-wing parties, but it's possible it manages to stick around as a token moderating force on the Lega and FdI dominated right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

FdI: 24.9%
Lega: 12.1%
FI: 7.7%
NM: 1.3% (1.4% when included)
Total Right: 46%

PD: 21.5%
AVS: 3.6%
+E: 1.8% (1.9% when included)
IC: 1% (1.2% when included)
Total Center-Left: 27%

M5S: 13.4%

A-IV: 6.7%

Italexit: 2.7% (2.8% when included)

UP: 0.5% (1.2% when included)

We still don't have official results because >Italy (most of the unreported precincts come from Southern Sicily, so you can expect both the left and right to go down a bit and M5S to go up, but only by a tenth of a percentage point at most), but screw it, let's see how the polls went.

The right underperformed by 2.2 points (+1.1 for FdI, -3.3 for Lega, +0.4 for FI, -0.4 for NM).
The left underperformed by... wait f**k I made a ridiculous mistake when adding up the Left's vote last time. Oh great. Well. It underperformed by 1.8 points, not 0.9 as it would look from those charts. Specifically -2.4 for PD, just right for AVS, +1 for +E, -0.4 for IC).
M5S overperformed by 2.
A/IV overperformed by 1.1.
Italexit underperformed by 0.8.
UP overperformed by 0.9 lol (although really that's just because they were often not polled).
That also means the miscellaneous other parties also overperformed, which is interesting. I would actually have expected the opposite.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay, one final metric to try to get around the distortionary effect of the 2-weeks polling ban. I have taken the previously computed polling average and then corrected it using the average swing seen in the two illegal polls published after the ban. Admittedly that's a pretty ad-hoc process (there's a reason I'm only doing it now and not before the election) but it's the best way to actually measure the effect of late trends vs actual, genuine polling error.

Here is what we get:

FdI: 24.7%
Lega: 9.8%
FI: 7.7%
NM: 1.5%
Total Right: 43.7%

PD: 20.4%
AVS: 4.0%
+E: 2.2%
IC: 0.9
Total Center-Left: 27.5%

M5S: 15.9%

A-IV: 7.5%

Italexit: 2.9%


Based on this, the right actually performed exactly as expected, while both the left and even M5S underperformed (as well as Italexit, lol). Sad, but I guess in line with past results.

Looking party by party, the only really significant movements we see is FdI taking an additional point away from Lega, and PD just hemorrhaging 1 to 1.5 points (about half of which went to +E and probably a little to A/IV too).

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1574769822923214848

this woman is evil

[mileslunn]

Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:

https://twitter.com/repubblica/status/1574612181806911490

Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader.

She may regret that as he has a huge ego and I cannot see that going over well.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:

https://twitter.com/repubblica/status/1574612181806911490

Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha

Gotta respect Meloni for moving to sideline the Kidnapper so quickly.

GASLIGHT
GATEKEEP
GIRLBOSS

[palandio]

Okay, one final metric to try to get around the distortionary effect of the 2-weeks polling ban. I have taken the previously computed polling average and then corrected it using the average swing seen in the two illegal polls published after the ban. Admittedly that's a pretty ad-hoc process (there's a reason I'm only doing it now and not before the election) but it's the best way to actually measure the effect of late trends vs actual, genuine polling error.

Here is what we get:

FdI: 24.7%
Lega: 9.8%
FI: 7.7%
NM: 1.5%
Total Right: 43.7%

PD: 20.4%
AVS: 4.0%
+E: 2.2%
IC: 0.9
Total Center-Left: 27.5%

M5S: 15.9%

A-IV: 7.5%

Italexit: 2.9%


Based on this, the right actually performed exactly as expected, while both the left and even M5S underperformed (as well as Italexit, lol). Sad, but I guess in line with past results.

Looking party by party, the only really significant movements we see is FdI taking an additional point away from Lega, and PD just hemorrhaging 1 to 1.5 points (about half of which went to +E and probably a little to A/IV too).

You could also try to extrapolate the trend observed during the weeks before the polling ban:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Opinion_Polls_Italy_General_Election_2022.svg
Or you could look at exit polls.

Whatever you do, one percentage point more or less is not a lot in the polling business. Given their abyssmal track record (even regarding exit polls), I was sure that Italian pollsters would get at least one number completely wrong. They didn't, they were spot on. Either they were super lucky this time or they really improved massively. Chapeau, Italian pollsters!

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1574862655067660295?t=9HVMAfxpORbr0D_JL...

Looks like she just lost a lot of her American online fans

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1574862655067660295?t=9HVMAfxpORbr0D_JL...

Looks like she just lost a lot of her American online fans

Those fans clearly then were Fairweather, and didn't do their research.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.

I just wish they would get those things from a political party that didn't have its roots in Mussolini's Fascist Party. I'm sorry, but when that's the case, I don't think any political party should have any credibility, no matter what they campaign on.

Ideally, if Meloni's government ends up as bad as it looks, it will be a harsh lesson to the rest of the world who wants to flirt with far-right populism.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1574862655067660295?t=9HVMAfxpORbr0D_JL...

Looks like she just lost a lot of her American online fans

Those fans clearly then were Fairweather, and didn't do their research.

I mean most probably just saw that a “populist right” leader won and became fans cause of that . Like you can imagine certain posters on here who would have been happy when she won but then would get mad about this .