Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Estrella]

The peak of the Atlas brand of dweebery is watching random old election coverage from other countries, preferably in a language you don't understand. I couldn't find much for Italy, but what I did find was fascinating. Italian election nights used to be wild.

A clip from "TG1 Non Stop Elections 1983", the coverage of the first network for the general elections of 1983. The entertainment part is entrusted to Raffaella Carrà and Beppe Grillo while Bruno Vespa takes care of the vote counting. Raffaella opens the programme with "Ballo Ballo" and then welcomes the first great guest, Bonnie Tyler, who performs "Total Eclipse of the Heart".

With how long it takes America to count the votes, I'm sure their networks could squeeze in a musical number or two.

[FrancoAgo]

Thats were the 80s, was not wild for the 80s or the late 70s

[Antonio the Sixth]

The peak of the Atlas brand of dweebery is watching random old election coverage from other countries, preferably in a language you don't understand. I couldn't find much for Italy, but what I did find was fascinating. Italian election nights used to be wild.

A clip from "TG1 Non Stop Elections 1983", the coverage of the first network for the general elections of 1983. The entertainment part is entrusted to Raffaella Carrà and Beppe Grillo while Bruno Vespa takes care of the vote counting. Raffaella opens the programme with "Ballo Ballo" and then welcomes the first great guest, Bonnie Tyler, who performs "Total Eclipse of the Heart".

With how long it takes America to count the votes, I'm sure their networks could squeeze in a musical number or two.

Here's coverage of the 2018 elections, if you're curious!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The peak of the Atlas brand of dweebery is watching random old election coverage from other countries, preferably in a language you don't understand. I couldn't find much for Italy, but what I did find was fascinating. Italian election nights used to be wild.

A clip from "TG1 Non Stop Elections 1983", the coverage of the first network for the general elections of 1983. The entertainment part is entrusted to Raffaella Carrà and Beppe Grillo while Bruno Vespa takes care of the vote counting. Raffaella opens the programme with "Ballo Ballo" and then welcomes the first great guest, Bonnie Tyler, who performs "Total Eclipse of the Heart".

Ah, the good old days when Beppe Grillo was just an entertainer and did not also "lead" a "party". Too bad a few years later he would be sacked for making an off-limits joke about Craxi and Martelli...

Here's coverage of the 2018 elections, if you're curious!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7DbpupTI8c

I have only rarely watched the Maratona Mentana myself (I imagine you have much more experience of it) but it's basically an institution, yes.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In other news, this year we have regional elections in Sicily [and a bunch of local elections as always - see below], and things seem to be getting messy.

Incumbent right-wing president Nello Musumeci intends to run for re-election but for now he only has the support of Fratelli d'Italia and his personal list or regional party #DiventeràBellissima [yes. we have a party called 'hashtag it will become very beautiful'. why do you even ask...]. The behaviour of Lega and of UDC is unclear, while Forza Italia wants to run Gianfranco Miccichè, currently president of the regional assembly and a big name in Sicilian politics; Micchiché incidentally already ran in 2012 and probably acted as a spoiler for Musumeci, who was the 'official' candidate for the right (PdL) back then already. I am not knowledgeable enough to understand the dynamics at play in detail, but it is clear there are some serious divisions within the Sicilian right. Although Musumeci's camp is suggesting that the only divisions are within Sicilian FI and Berlusconi hasn't actually approved of Miccichè's run... oh well.
The independent mayor of Messina Cateno De Luca (centre-to-centre-right ex-DC area) is also officially running, potentially with some sort of centrist coalition, and actually just resigned his office to concentrate on his regional candidacy. In the centre-left, PD would like to run one of its two MEPs from the Islands constituency, while in the Five Star Movement Dino Giarrusso, also a MEP, has expressed his interest. However there are suggestions of holding coalition primaries, so we may have to wait for those.

The Sicilian election is presumed to be held later in the year, as the last one was in November 2017. On the other hand, the local elections should go back to be held in the spring after COVID forced to shift the last two cycles to September/October. Incidentally, the biggest city of this year's round is Palermo. Other notable cities going to the polls include Monza, Verona, Padua, Parma, L'Aquila, Catanzaro, Genoa and my home city of La Spezia.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Forgive the triple posting but:

More dark-horse but still prominent candidates include Marta Cartabia, Giuliano Amato, Pier Ferdinando Casini, Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati, and even a second term of Sergio Mattarella (forget about that).

Right now I would expect a lot of abstentions in the first three rounds of voting, but otherwise I am ever wary of making predictions. The week that remains before the election could of course still scramble a lot of things.

Damn was I wrong. Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. In my defense, it is fairly probable Mattarella himself was thinking "forget about that" back then...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I forgot to mention this earlier, but this year we will also have five referenda on the judicial system (two about the composition and structure of the Superior Council of the Judiciary, one about preventive detention, one about the law which automatically bars certain convicted criminal from public offices, and one about separating definitively the career paths of judge and prosecutor). A sixth referendum proposal about civil responsibility for judges was disallowed by the Constitutional Court together with one on marijuana and one on euthanasia.

The election date has not been set yet but we will likely know soon - in any case it is almost certain to coincide with the local elections.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The date of the local elections and referendums has been officially set at the 12th of June (obviously, eventual runoffs in the mayoral races will be held on the 26th).

The date of the Sicilian regional election, on the other hand, is still unknown. What we have is a prospective date for a broad centre-left front primary - 9th of July seems to be the PD's choice - but we still have to hear from the M5S and it looks like some minor partners are now opposed to holding one. Incidentally, I also found that Cateno De Luca posted on Facebook a rumour that "they" don't want Musumeci to run for re-election. Ah, Sicily...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Changed the title by popular (ie, one particular person's (very insistent)) demand. Couldn't think of anything quippy so enjoy the next reminder in Italy's always thick* electoral calendar.

*Almost as thick as Giuseppe Conte's skull. There, I found a quip.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Changed the title by popular (ie, one particular person's (very insistent)) demand. Couldn't think of anything quippy so enjoy the next reminder in Italy's always thick* electoral calendar.

*Almost as thick as Giuseppe Conte's skull. There, I found a quip.

To be fair, I alone constitute 50% of this thread's readership.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I haven't had much time or interest to update this thread recently... but last Saturday was the date by which official lists and candidates for the local elections had to be presented so it's time for a recollection of the biggest contests. I would have done this a few days ago but the Sicily deadline was a little later (ah, Sicily) so I preferred to wait.

PALERMO
Incumbent mayor Leoluca Orlando (PD), who across his three separate stints has occupied the mayor office for almost a quarter century now, is ineligible for re-election - although I am not quite sure he would go very far if he could run. The centre-right after very long deliberations agreed on the candidacy of the regional minister for education Roberto Lagalla (also de facto supported by IV even though Renzi seems still not over Davide Faraone's candidacy falling through). The centre-left including M5S - which at this point is going separately only in rare circumstances - opted for architect and former member of the municipal government Franco Miceli, while Azione/+E chose hilariously enough Fabrizio Ferrandelli, who was the centre-right candidate last time in 2017. Among minor candidates I consider notable the presence of Rita Barbera, former director of Palermo's jail supported by the far left of PaP. All polls I could find are from before the line-up was clear and probably useless... but the race should be quite competitive.

GENOA
The incumbent Marco Bucci (cdx independent), the first directly elected centre-right mayor of the city, is running again and facing as his main opponent Ariel Dello Strologo, a lawyer and the president of Genoa's Jewish community supported by all the centre-left. All... if IV and A don't count, as they seem to be behind Bucci through a civic list. Bucci is pretty popular, presumably in large part due to his handling of disasters like the crash of the Polcevera highway bridge, and the polls consistently suggest he should have an easy time.

VERONA
Now this case is more unusual. Flavio Tosi, mayor from 2007 to 2017, is running against his successor Federico Sboarina (FdI). Tosi was originally a Lega member but he left and founded his own party called "Fare!" in 2015 - being barred from a third consecutive term five years ago, his then-fiancée and current wife ran instead but lost to Sboarina in the runoff. Now he's seeking a rematch of sorts and has the support of FI and IV in addition to that of his party, while Lega and FdI and most of the rest of the right wing are behind Sboarina. On the other side, the centre-left (plus A/+E) is running Damiano Tommasi, most famous as a football player for AS Roma and the national team two decades ago. Despite the split on the right, I would still bet on a Sboarina-Tommasi runoff - where the former would in theory be favourite but the bad blood between him and Tosi might cause strange things to happen - and the polls agree. But who knows...

MESSINA
Another less-than-straightforward situation. This early election - the current term originally expired in 2023 - was triggered by the resignation of mayor Cateno De Luca (independent) to run for president of Sicily, which I noted in a previous post. De Luca has an anointed successor in Federico Basile, general director of the municipality, who also conquered the support of Lega together with a slew of civic lists. FI, FdI and the rest of the centre-right are instead supporting Maurizio Croce, a former regional minister. The centre-left is united behind an ex regional councillor, Franco De Domenico. No polls here... but I'd put my money on Basile because of course.

PADUA
The incumbent mayor Sergio Giordani (csx independent) is running for re-election with the support of all the centre-left and also the centre. His main opponent for the centre-right is Francesco Peghin, local entrepreneur [insert "we saw how that went down in 2021!" quip here]. To be fair he is also a former sports champion like Tommasi, but in his case in sailing and therefore infinitely less famous. Either way, Giordani is reasonably popular and looks likely to be elected again.

PARMA
Forget about Verona or Messina, this is something else entirely. The incumbent Federico Pizzarotti (IiC) made headlines in 2012 for being the first M5S mayor elected in a city of significant size, but he left the party in 2016 and won a second term in 2017 running with his personal list. He also founded the party "Italia in Comune" in 2018, because this is Italy, which is meant to be a ~party of mayors~. In any case, he is not eligible this time, but he endorsed the PD candidate Michele Guerra, who is a member of the current administration. However, the centre-left is the opposite of unified: the Five Star Movement which obviously hates Pizzarotti is not running any list, while Green Europe is curiously going separately with biologist Enrico Ottolini, and there's also a dissident PD candidacy in Michela Canova. Azione is running yet another candidate in architect Dario Costi. And just to make things spicier, there is also a split in the centre-right: FI and Lega are running ex mayor Pietro Vignali, who resigned in 2011 due to accusations of corruption in his administration but was recently cleared and compensated for an investigation that had followed him for a decade, whereas FdI supports its local party leader Priamo Bocchi. All in all, though, it looks like Guerra and Vignali will be the only two strong contenders, and they'll play this out in a runoff.

TARANTO
Rinaldo Melucci (PD) was elected in 2017 but lost the confidence of the council and was forced to resign six months ago. However, he is running again for the centre-left. And if this seems odd, the centre-right candidate Walter Musillo was the provincial PD secretary and a Melucci ally until half a decade ago. There are just two minor candidates, but I'll name them for a certain reason. One, Massimo Battista, is a municipal councillor and a worker at the infamous local steelworks popularly known by their previous name of Ilva; the other, Luigi Abbate, is a journalist running for a civic list called "Taranto without I.L.V.A.". That story would deserve a separate and much bigger post, and with my current knowledge I could really only scratch the surface, so I'll leave it there.

---

I am not going to bother with smaller cities for now except to mention my own, La Spezia. Similarly to the regional seat of Genoa, we have an incumbent who was first elected in 2017 as the first centre-right mayor in a long time and who is running again (Pierluigi Peracchini) against a lawyer for the centre-left (Piera Sommovigo). In our case however Italia Viva is going alone (Antonella Franciosi) and Azione too (Andrea Buondonno). They're all lawyers lmao. There's also a fairly significant contingent of minor independents, although the total of 10 candidates is still smaller than five years ago when they were 12. I don't have much to say about Peracchini - I've generally liked all the new public projects in the last five years, most notably a park running along our old city walls, but those are often things that are conceived and happen across different administrations. Some of his proposals for his second term look bizarre or stupid to me, too. An important topic is what to do about our Enel power plant (once upon a time the second largest coal plant in Europe), which recently stopped burning coal, is still momentarily working as a gas plant, but there's a consensus to turn it into something else. I have a hunch that most candidates really have the same ideas (something something renewable energy something something keep collaborating with Enel) but use different words... and of course the State has the final say on most everything... but maybe I am cynical. Don't ask me how I am going to vote.

[Estrella]

Your previews are great! What's the situation in national politics right now? Has the Draghi government passed any major policies? Do they plan to stay on until the election next year?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Your previews are great! What's the situation in national politics right now? Has the Draghi government passed any major policies? Do they plan to stay on until the election next year?

Most major policies in recent times have been related to the war in Ukraine (humanitarian and military aid, energy subsidies etc.). The Cartabia reform on the judiciary, which may preempt or complement parts of the referenda, seems still in a process of revision, although the Senate will hold a vote in June. I don't see any real indication that the Draghi government intends to leave before the election next year, even though the majority is very shaky and basically always in conflict.

On a related note, the most recent major national news is that Matteo Salvini was planning a trip to Moscow (for vague peacemaking reasons?) but this was leaked and he decided to cancel everything. I can only say one thing about this: lol.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

For what it's worth, we have a few referendum polls and they suggest that a majority of voters would vote against the Severino law repeal and the limitations to preventive detention, but would vote in favour of the other three questions. However all of them also show the quorum of 50% turnout wouldn't be reached.

There's a nice Wikipedia table with party positions on the referenda that has M5S, PD (which however "leaves a free vote" rofl) and the far left officially against, and the liberals and the right officially for. However among the latter FdI isn't supporting the first two questions... incidentally the same ones which polls show people would vote against.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have some free time so I'll add some other significant cities to my preview.

MONZA: Incumbent Dario Allevi (FI) is running for re-election and has as his main opponent municipal councillor Paolo Pilotto, supported by all the centre-left including Azione and IV. Allevi won in a close runoff in 2017 - my completely unscientific guess is that things will be similar this year (there are tediously many minor candidates as well).

PIACENZA: Here is another centre-right incumbent running for re-election (Patrizia Barbieri) but an unusual split on the other side of the spectrum - PD, Art. 1 and Azione are supporting a different candidate (Katia Tarasconi) from M5S, EV and SI (Stefano Cugini). We have quite a few polls and the picture they paint is that Barbieri will easily top the poll in the first round but likely be forced to a runoff with Tarasconi, which may be pretty competitive.

BARLETTA: Election one year in advance, as the previous mayor Cosimo Cannito (cdx independent) was elected in 2018 but lost his majority last autumn. Cannito, unsurprisingly, is running again as the centre-right candidate. His opposition is very much not unified: the PD-led coalition is running the general director of the municipality Santa Scommegna, but here too the Five Stars are running a different candidate (Maria Angela Carone), and in one of the strangest alliances* of this round of locals there is another candidate (Carmine Doronzo) supported by IV and SI at the same time. I suspect much of that has to do with the various feuds regional president Emiliano has - indeed there are multiple civic lists supporting Scommegna which bear his name... In 2018 splintering and general disorganization on the left allowed Cannito to win in the first round. Will this happen again?

*Well... among larger cities and provincial seats at least. Apparently in the booming Rome suburb of Fonte Nuova (31k people) PD is supporting the incumbent FdI mayor lol.

CATANZARO: [I skipped a couple larger cities, but Catanzaro seems more important to me because it is a regional seat, and it also has one of the most interesting situations] With incumbent Sergio Abramo (Coraggio Italia) ineligible to run again after two terms - which were actually his third and fourth as he had already been mayor from 1997 to 2005 - the CDX has fractured away and possibly given some hope to the CSX in this city usually hostile to the left. While national Deputy (and former provincial president) Wanda Ferro is running for FdI and has the endorsement of Abramo, Lega and FI (and also IV and UdC) are bizarrely enough supporting law professor Valerio Donato, originally a centre-left man and a PD member until not long ago. One wonders... To make things stranger, there is a third candidate (Antonello Talerico) supported by Azione and various centre-centre-right groups. The centre-left's hopes are instead with Nicola Fiorita, already an independent candidate in 2017 when he had taken 23% of the votes. I won't hazard a prediction, but I want to feel confident about Fiorita.

L'AQUILA: The last regional seat voting this year. Incumbent Pierluigi Biondi (FdI) is running for re-election for the centre-right. The centre-left candidate from 2017, Americo Di Benedetto is also running again... but this time as an independent with the backing of A/+E. Di Benedetto by the way had almost won in the first round but then managed the humiliating the feat of seeing his vote share decrease in the runoff. The rest of the centre-left is instead supporting Deputy Stefania Pezzopane, also a former Senator and provincial president. Biondi will definitely win the most votes in the first round and may even get a majority and avoid a runoff (a poll commissioned by FdI says so)... but we'll see.

[Flyersfan232]

I love all the drama in Italians politics.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I love all the drama in Italians politics.

Speaking of drama, I just found out that Arturo Lorenzoni, ex deputy of Giordani in Padua (see a few posts above) isn't supporting him but endorsed instead Independent Francesca Gislon. Lorenzoni had been a mayoral candidate himself in 2017 and had helped Giordani win the runoff; he then became deputy mayor as I said until his hopeless and kind of sad run for regional president in 2020 following which he became a regional councillor. It appears that he didn't like being treated as a convenient sacrificial lamb in that occasion.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Two candidates in lists supporting Roberto Lagalla in Palermo have been arrested for Mafia vote buying. I am shocked, SHOCKED I tell you.

In other news, I may have mentioned this already but I am a poll worker again this year, which may influence my ability to post here tomorrow (and to an extent on Monday).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Polls have officially opened! They will stay open until 23. I am in for a long day (as always).

Updates coming in later.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I voted half an hour ago! I went with Sommovigo (centre-left) in the end and I voted No/No/Yes/Yes/Yes in the five referenda, if anyone is interested.

Turnout seems to be moderate... anyway we'll have the official nationwide reporting in a matter of minutes I think.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Turnout at noon was 17.4% for local elections (not bad at all) but just between 5 and 6% for the referenda (remember that the clear majority of municipalities and people have no locals today), which means they are all going to fail.

[Mike88]

Will ballots start to be counted after the 11pm poll closing, or will they do it "Irish style" and start counting only during tomorrow morning?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Will ballots start to be counted after the 11pm poll closing, or will they do it "Irish style" and start counting only during tomorrow morning?

Referendum ballots will start to be counted immediately after the polls close, while local election ballots will be counted tomorrow.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Anyway, turnout at 19 was around 42% for local elections (meh or average) and a ridiculously low 11 to 12% for the referenda. Will this be the lowest turnout ever in an Italian referendum? The answer is likely yes.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.