Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have now gotten around to make nice maps by municipio of the Rome mayoral election. There is a lot of interesting stuff going on. I could talk about it here but for #analysis and maps at a further level of detail, made by people with more resources than me, I suggest the following: https://www.mapparoma.info/mappe/elezioni-comunali-2021-lastensione-e-il-voto-nelle-sette-rome/. Either way, I'll post the aforementioned maps made by myself in the next posts. Have fun!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Maps time! Round 1:

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Maps time! Round 2:

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And now combining together, maps showing the leading candidate with margins.

Round 1:



Round 2:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beautiful, thank you!

Definitely looks like the Calenda -> Gualtieri transfer was a lot stronger than the Raggi -> Gualtieri one. I guess that's not too surprising.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Beautiful, thank you!

Definitely looks like the Calenda -> Gualtieri transfer was a lot stronger than the Raggi -> Gualtieri one. I guess that's not too surprising.

Thanks. It was likely stronger but I am not sure it was a lot (I guess maps can be a little deceptive). I had already gone over that anyway:

It seems self-evident that both Calenda voters and Raggi voters split fairly comfortably for Gualtieri in the runoff. Gualtieri's and Michetti's gains from the first round were pretty evenly distributed around the city, but noticeably unusually strong for the latter and weak for the former in what were already the clearest strongholds for Michetti, municipi VI and XV (hilariously two areas very different in many respects).

But you gave me the idea that I should map the gains from first to second round as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Being reported that M5S wants to join the PES, which I suppose makes sense given that its voter profile now looks amusingly like that of a social democratic party. Looking at its vote distribution in Rome recently, I did joke that Italian politics finally has what it has been missing: an extremely ineffectual labour party.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Being reported that M5S wants to join the PES, which I suppose makes sense given that its voter profile now looks amusingly like that of a social democratic party. Looking at its vote distribution in Rome recently, I did joke that Italian politics finally has what it has been missing: an extremely ineffectual labour party.

To be fair M5S has had quite that kind of vote distribution for a while now - even though I am sure at their peak around 2018 it included along for the ride quite a few people who are not and have never been interested in a social democratic party. I suppose after two years of sort-of-not-really aligning itself with the traditional centre-left this is a logical move, but I cannot help having a gut reaction of just "lol".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And now for another, more unusual, set of maps of Rome. I did these a) to better visualize the race between the two most voted candidates in the first round b) because Calenda and Raggi had stunningly inverse voter distributions - and to some level had Michetti and Gualtieri too - more so than any other possible pair c) for fun.

Michetti vs Gualtieri in Round 1:


Note that this is not the same as the map showing the leading candidate and their margin of victory [over the second-placed one] since in a number of municipi either Gualtieri or Michetti fell in third.

Calenda vs Raggi in Round 1:


Atlas will have a field day with this because it is very easy to interpret it as a map of #populism and #elitism in the city.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I also have another map yet.

But you gave me the idea that I should map the gains from first to second round as well.

I reckoned that a good way to visualize this, to account for the fact that not all areas had simply as many possible total votes to pick up, was to subtract Michetti's gains in the runoff from Gualtieri's gains in the runoff.



As I have already mentioned, gains pretty equally distributed (low thirty-something percentage points for Gualtieri, little less than ten points for Michetti, subtracted makes 21-25 better in relative terms for the former) except for the XV and - especially - the VI. Two markedly different municipi, as the Calenda/Raggi map shows painfully well. But perhaps a logical couple in Anno Domini 2021.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A bit late perhaps, but since last year I had linked here the interactive maps of the regional elections made by Bidimedia, I guess this year I should do the same for the Calabria regional election and the big city mayoral elections.

Calabria -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-calabria-2021-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/

Naples -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/comunali-napoli-2021-la-mappa-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-quartiere-per-quartiere/

Bologna -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/comunali-bologna-2021-la-mappa-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-sezione-per-sezione/

Milan -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/comunali-milano-2021-la-mappa-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-sezione-per-sezione/

Turin -
1st round - https://sondaggibidimedia.com/comunali-torino-2021-1-turno-mappa-bidimedia-risultati-sezione-per-sezione/
2nd round - https://sondaggibidimedia.com/comunali-torino-2021-ballottaggio-mappa-bidimedia/

I will not bother writing a longer #analysis here, considering all these articles (just like the Rome one from mapparoma I posted a while ago) already include it, but I will note some things:
- Calabria can only be described as "a huge mess". But then again hard to expect otherwise...
- The PD list had by far its best results in Naples in the neighbourhoods of the eastern industrial periphery (San Giovanni a Teduccio, Barra, Ponticelli) that historically were the heartland of the left in the city, something I consider significant as this was very much not the case in 2018 and 2019.
- Antonio Bassolino did best in the southwestern favoured quarter of Naples. I can't help finding this amusing, even though it is unsurprising given his biggest backer was none other than Calenda.
- In the three northern cities, there are fairly divergent electoral geographies. Milan is very radial with Sala's margin decreasing (together with wealth) going away from the centre. Bologna on the other hand has Lepore doing best in a ring of peripheries north and around the historic centre, and worst in the rich - though sparsely populated - southern hills, and some adjacent central areas. Turin is somewhat in the middle and more complicated, with the northern periphery quite to the right of the western and southern ones, Lo Russo peaking in some quasi-central neighbourhoods, and its own rightist rich and sparsely populated hills on the other side of the Po east/southeast. One thing that caught my eye is that in all three the PD list tended to have a more peripheral voter distribution than the centre-left taken as a whole (or alternatively, than the mayoral candidate it supported). All in all, if one subscribes to Trends Are Real, it could be said that Milan has undergone them more than Turin has undergone them more than Bologna...

EDIT: I had originally sent the wrong link for Naples. I have now fixed this.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A few days ago Renzi made his annual speech at the Leopolda convention, where he sounded as combative as ever. From what I can tell he attacked PD and M5S more than anyone else, and hinted at the construction of a centrist liberal pole "inspired to Macron" possibly including even some parts of Forza Italia and Coraggio Italia. He of course also addressed - or rather scoffed at - the fire he has been receiving for his paid speeches in Saudi Arabia and membership on the board of trustees of an organization directly linked to Mohammed bin Salman.
Calenda reacted badly, saying he is sick of Renzi and doesn't care for his way of doing politics, and that his idea of a reformist centre is rather different. Incidentally, Calenda announced a couple weeks ago his move from the S&D to the RE group [where Italia Viva already sits] in the European Parliament in reaction to the M5S PES news.

In other news, Berlusconi recently came out in favour of the citizenship income, which many took to mean an attempt to curry favour with M5S members in case of a candidacy of his to President of the Republic - a prospect that seems to have become more concrete now. Manfred Weber of all people just expressed support for it.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

tl;dr Renzi doesn't hate gay people He just doesn't-hate plutocratic despots more than he doesn't-hate gay people

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A reminder that another by-election will be held in the Roma Centre constituency, since Roberto Gualtieri resigned his parliamentary seat to take the office of mayor. The election date has been already established, January 16th.

The centre-left is definitely dominant in the constituency nowadays (and Gualtieri had been elected in a landslide himself in the original by-election, though of course with terrible turnout) so the most interesting question is who their candidate will be. The Democratic Party reportedly offered none other than Giuseppe Conte their support but he said he is not interesting in entering Parliament now. A possible other choice could be Enrico Gasbarra, former president of the province of Rome. Carlo Calenda has been mulling a run but I am skeptical that this will really affect the 'official' centre-left chances, since even in October he seems to have narrowly lost the area covered by the constituency - and remember this time M5S won't run separately in all likelihood.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

New Year's Update:

For the Rome by-election in two weeks, the centre-left has selected Cecilia D'Elia, former member of Veltroni's municipal administration and Zingaretti's regional administration, from the left flank of PD; Italia Viva has responded with Valerio Casini, who was elected city councillor last October with Calenda's list; the centre-right has chosen Simonetta Matone, a judge who a few months ago was Michetti's choice for deputy mayor should he be elected.

The budget was passed and significantly it includes the long-talked ~tax reform~. In particular the IRPEF (income tax) gets simplified from 5 to 4 brackets. In practical terms, the marginal rates from 15k to 50k euros of income were lowered, the ones from 50k to 75k were raised, and the remainder were left the same. The deduction system was also revised. The IRAP (regional tax on productive activities) was abolished for individual businesses. As part of measures to combat the energy bill spikes the IVA (value-added tax) on gas was reduced. Another significant measure is the "single family check" - from 50€ to 175€ a month per child (higher amounts to lower-income parents). Obviously there is much more to it but I wouldn't want to bore you - or myself...

On the topic of the now imminent presidential election, definitely the most talked-about names are still Draghi and Berlusconi, although I tend to think what will actually happen is anyone's guess. The President of the Chamber of Deputies Roberto Fico will officially call a joint session of the Parliament on the 4th of January. The actual election will probably start around the 20th, after regional councils have appointed their delegates (three for each except for Valle d'Aosta which has one - they elect the President of the Republic together with all Deputies and Senators). For reference Mattarella's term ends on the 4th of February.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks for the update, Battista. I edited the title to more accurately reflect the current focus.

I really can't see Berlusconi getting in, even though all three right-wing parties seem to be lining up behind him. He's obviously not acceptable for PD and M5S, and even if he somehow made a deal with Renzi, it wouldn't be enough to secure a majority. But he seems to be really trying to go for it, so who knows. It would be kinda hilarious if he got his wish now, after so many years of gunning for it.

Draghi is in a weird spot because on paper he's a great candidate who would be broadly acceptable to all, but him being PM right now means that his election would trigger a government crisis, which most parties would rather avoid (ironically, this has meant that Meloni, the leader of the only major party that doesn't support Draghi, is openly in favor of electing him as a way to have new elections).

So yeah, neither is too likely to go through. The third name you hear a lot about is Giuliano Amato, which is the name PD seems to be converging around (ironically, he was Berlusconi's preferred candidate in 2015). But he doesn't seem to be getting any traction beyond PD.

[Continential]

What would happen to FI if Berlusconi becomes President?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What would happen to FI if Berlusconi becomes President?

My dad joked re: the aforementioned deal with Renzi, that in exchange Berlusconi might let him take the leadership of FI.

In all seriousness, it probably collapses into irrelevance. It's already well on its way there.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

What would happen to FI if Berlusconi becomes President?

My dad joked re: the aforementioned deal with Renzi, that in exchange Berlusconi might let him take the leadership of FI.

In all seriousness, it probably collapses into irrelevance. It's already well on its way there.

I would agree with this, although FI has exceeded my expectations so far since that core 7-8% that says in polls it would vote for the party has not really moved one inch in the last two years or so. Then again its results in most lower-level elections are generally even more pathetic so who knows.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What would happen to FI if Berlusconi becomes President?

My dad joked re: the aforementioned deal with Renzi, that in exchange Berlusconi might let him take the leadership of FI.

That would be hilarious, I'm all for it.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Anyway, we now have an official date for the presidential election: the first vote will be held on the 24th of January at 15. Generally speaking there are two votes per day, although sometimes only one. As a reminder, in the first three votes a 2/3 majority is required to elect the new President for the Republic; from the fourth vote on, an absolute majority is enough.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, we now have an official date for the presidential election: the first vote will be held on the 24th of January at 15. Generally speaking there are two votes per day, although sometimes only one. As a reminder, in the first three votes a 2/3 majority is required to elect the new President for the Republic; from the fourth vote on, an absolute majority is enough.

I think this time they have only planned one vote per day, due to COVID safety precautions (don't ask me for details, I just heard it).

And on a related note, there are about 40 Electors who are sick with COVID right now, and there's no procedure for allowing them to vote, which might potentially skew the result...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Amid unsurprisingly dismal turnout (11.8%) the PD candidate Cecilia D'Elia has won the by-election in the Lazio 1 - 01 (central Rome) constituency by a blowout margin - pretty similar to Gualtieri's in the by-election that had been held two years ago. All the speculations on whether the right or even the centrist IV candidate could be competitive were shattered to pieces by... apathy and inertia (my father joked that there are probably more PD members in the constituency than people who turned out to vote).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

On another note, Azione and +Europa have joined together in a "federation" and can be considered for most intents and purposes a single entity now. The first opinion poll I saw with Azione-+Europa constituting a single option had it at around 5%. Calenda was confident that it can reach 10% - I would not be so sure, but mid single digits would already be a respectable showing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

On another note, Azione and +Europa have joined together in a "federation" and can be considered for most intents and purposes a single entity now. The first opinion poll I saw with Azione-+Europa constituting a single option had it at around 5%. Calenda was confident that it can reach 10% - I would not be so sure, but mid single digits would already be a respectable showing.

They'll be lucky to even get 5%, especially if they stay out of any electoral coalition. Out-of-coalition small parties almost always underperform their polling.