Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout in at 7pm:
- Rome: 25.28% (-4.22 from the first round)
- Turin: 25% (-4.29)
- All cities: 26.71% (-4.94)

11pm:

Rome: 30.87% (-5.95)
Turin: 32.61% (-3.89)

All cities: 33.33% (-6.53)

Massive overanalysis alert, but the turnout dropoff seems to have recovered somewhat in Turin, but only gotten worse in Rome and most of the rest of Italy. Don't know if that means anything, but that might matter if it continues.

[Andrea]

Exit polls for Rai


Rome

Gualtieri (centre-left) 59-63%
Michetti (centre-right) 37-41%

Turin
Lo Russo (centre-left) 56-60%
Damilano (centre-right) 40-44%



Trieste

Dipiazza (centre-right) 48-52%
Russo (centre-left) 48-52%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Polls have just closed, and SWG apparently feels comfortable calling Rome for Gualtieri. They've also all-but-called Turin for Lo Russo, and Trieste is apparently the one major city that's most uncertain (despite the right-wing incumbent having a huge advantage in the first round). Same projections from RAI.

Still early, and projections have had an egg on their face before, but if so that is a complete victory for the left.

[Andrea]

250 polling stations out of 919 in Turin reported

Lo Russo is at 59%

http://www.comune.torino.it

[Antonio the Sixth]

250 polling stations out of 919 in Turin reported

Lo Russo is at 59%

http://www.comune.torino.it

Huh, this is going fast this time. Good to know.

SWG now is projecting both Gualtieri and Lo Russo to win 57-59%. I guess we'll have a little derby to see who wins by more.

[Andrea]

Counting half way in Varese (42 polling stations out of 85)

PD incumbent Galimberti leading 53 to 47%

[Andrea]

Projection for Trieste indicates Dipiazza will hold on 51 to 49%.

Varese looks like a PD hold. 61 out of 82 reported and it is 53.4% for Galimberti.

Cosenza and Spezia looks like centre-left wins after over 1/3 counted.

Mastella towards re-election in Benevento.

[Antonio the Sixth]

250 polling stations out of 919 in Turin reported

Lo Russo is at 59%

http://www.comune.torino.it

Huh, this is going fast this time. Good to know.

SWG now is projecting both Gualtieri and Lo Russo to win 57-59%. I guess we'll have a little derby to see who wins by more.

Looks like Gualtieri is winning the derby right now, at least according to SWG. Latest projections have him at 59.8% vs 58.6% for Lo Russo.

Meanwhile, no projection for Trieste yet, but unofficial sources from the left side have their candidate Russo (no relation) at 48%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gualtieri speaks already.

[Andrea]

I meant Savona, not Spezia in my earlier post.

Anyway, Savona and Cosenza to centre-left. Currently polling 62% and 58% with 2/3 of the count completed.

Caserta looks very close half-way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We have final turnout figures for Rome: 40.68% (-7.86). Could've been worse, at least both Gualtieri and Michetti probably increased their raw vote count from the first round (you'd think that always happens, but there are famous examples when it didn't). Still absolutely pathetic though. Gualtieri will be the mayor of about a quarter of the voters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And for Turin: 42.14% (-5.94). This time the right-wing candidate Damilano might actually have won fewer votes than in the first round. The runoff system is really broken.

Among all the cities with runoffs, turnout was 43.94% (-8.73).

[Andrea]

Cosenza have finished counting


Francesco Caruso (centre-left) 57,81
Francesco Caruso (centre-right) 42,19   

Yes, they have the same name.

[Andrea]

Savona finished

Marco Russo (centre-left) 62,25%
Angelo Schirru (centre-right) 37,75   

CL gain

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cosenza have finished counting


Francesco Caruso (centre-left) 57,81
Francesco Caruso (centre-right) 42,19   

Yes, they have the same name.

hahahahahaha, amazing

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seems like Dipiazza has won in Trieste. Shame, it would have been quite a coup for the left to take the city (especially since it's been such a center of anti-vaccine passport agitation in the past few days).

[Andrea]

Damiano Coletta set to be re-elected in Latina.
He is at 54.5% with 100/116 reported.

CR candidate was at 48% in R1. Coletta go 35% (with both PD and M5S already in).

[Andrea]

Turin final

Lo Russo 59.23%
Damilano 40.77%

Caserta and Isernia won by centre-left.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Whoa, I had the centre-left favoured in both Rome and Turin but I would not have expected such landslides for Gualtieri and Lo Russo. Almost 60% for both! Now the centre-left will control the mayoralty in all of the six largest Italian cities (the ones over 500k people) except for Genoa, which is mildly ironic as Genoa is the most historically leftist one.

Aside from Trieste it seems that the only other mayoral runoff in a provincial seat that the centre-left lost was Benevento, home of our old friend Clemente Mastella. Of course, knowing him, he might as well switch to the "centre-left" again one of these days too...

[Andrea]

Trieste final

Dipiazza (CR) 51.3%
Russo (CL) 48.7%

CR hold

Isernia final

Pietro Castrataro  (CL) 58,72
Gabriele Melogli  (CR) 41.28

CL gain

Benevento final

Clemente Mastella (CR) 52,68
Luigi Parafano (CL) 47,32

Mastella hold


Varese final

Davide Galimberti (CL) 53.20%
Matteo Bianchi (CR) 46.8%

CL hold. Used to be a Lega stronghold until 2016.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whoa, I had the centre-left favoured in both Rome and Turin but I would not have expected such landslides for Gualtieri and Lo Russo. Almost 60% for both! Now the centre-left will control the mayoralty in all of the six largest Italian cities (the ones over 500k people) except for Genoa, which is mildly ironic as Genoa is the most historically leftist one.

Aside from Trieste it seems that the only other mayoral runoff in a provincial seat that the centre-left lost was Benevento, home of our old friend Clemente Mastella. Of course, knowing him, he might as well switch to the "centre-left" again one of these days too...

In his victory interview with La7 he had some choice words for Letta and started talking up about "building a great center" with Renzi and Calenda, so I wouldn't count on him being particularly helpful for the left.

[Alcibiades]

Nice to see some results that put at least a small dent in the narrative of hegemonic right-wing ascendancy. Maybe I should always go to Italy when there’s an election on - clearly my presence here has powered the centre-left to victory!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Whoa, I had the centre-left favoured in both Rome and Turin but I would not have expected such landslides for Gualtieri and Lo Russo. Almost 60% for both! Now the centre-left will control the mayoralty in all of the six largest Italian cities (the ones over 500k people) except for Genoa, which is mildly ironic as Genoa is the most historically leftist one.

Aside from Trieste it seems that the only other mayoral runoff in a provincial seat that the centre-left lost was Benevento, home of our old friend Clemente Mastella. Of course, knowing him, he might as well switch to the "centre-left" again one of these days too...

In his victory interview with La7 he had some choice words for Letta and started talking up about "building a great center" with Renzi and Calenda, so I wouldn't count on him being particularly helpful for the left.

Oh, of course he wants to build "a great centre"... he probably would like to bring back the Democrazia Cristiana if he could.

[FrancoAgo]

result municipality over 50k inhabitants

Bologna: CL Hold
Center-left+M5S 61.9%, elected
Right 29.6%
Power to the People 2.5%
An other five candidates  6%

Milano: CL Hold
Center-left 57.7%, elected
Right 32%
Italexit 3%
M5S 2.7%
An other nine candidates 5.6%

Napoli: CL gain from Left
Center-left+M5S 62.9%, elected
Right 21.9%
Dissident center-left 8.2%
Left 5.6%
An other three candidates 1.4%

Roma: CL gain from M5S
Right 30.1%, to run-off 39.9%
Center-left 27%, to run-off 60.1%
Dissident center-left 19.8%
M5S 19.1%
An other sixteen candidates 4%

Torino: CL gain from M5S
Center-left 43.9%, to run-off 59.2%
Right 38.9%, to run-off 40.8%
M5S 9%
Left 2.5%
An other nine candidates 5.7%

Trieste: R hold
Right 46.9%,to run-off 51.3%
Center-left 31.6% to run-off 48.7%
Local list 8.6% (look like a left leaning candidate)
Anti-Vax 4.5%
M5S 3.4%
An other five candidates 5%

Latina: CL Hold
Right 48.3%, to run-off 45.1%
Center-Left 35.7%, to run-off 54.9%
Local list 5.1% (i suspect this is right leaning)
Far Right 3.3%
M5S 3.3%
Center-left dissident 3.2%
An other three candidates 1.1%

Novara: R Hold
Right 69.6%, elected
Center-Left 20.5%
M5S 6.4%
Center-Left dissident 2.6%
an other candidate 0.9%

Ravenna: CL Hold
Center-Left+M5S 59.5%, elected
Right 22.5%
Local list 5% (centrist)
Italexit 3.9%
Forza Italia 3.3%
Antivax 2.9%
an other five candidates 2.9%

Rimini: CL Hold
Center-Left 51.3%, elected
Right 32.9%
M5S 8.9%
Antivax 4.1%
an other two candidates 2.8%

Salerno: CL Hold
Center-Left 57.4%, elected
M5S 16.8%
Right 16%
Local list 3.5% (right leaning)
an other five candidates 6.3%

Cosenza: CL gain from R
Right 37.4% to run-off 42.4%
Center-left 23.8% to run-off 57.6%
Right dissident 13.9%
M5S 12.7%
Left 4.8%
Local center-right list 3.5%
An other two candidates 3.9%

Cerignola (FG): CL gain from local CR
Local center-right 29.6% to run-off 46.1%
Center-left+M5S 23.3% to run-off 53.9%
Dissident center-left 22%
Right 18.3%
an other local center-right 5.5%
An other two candidates 1.3%

Battipaglia (SA): Dissident R Hold
Dissident Right 45.7% to run-off 65.7%
Center-left 33.1% to run-off 34.3%
Local (center-left leaning) 8.2%
Right/FdI 4.9%
Left 3.4%
M5S 3%
an other candidate 1.7%

Afragola (NA): R Hold
Right 43.4% to run-off 51.4%
Center-right 35.9% to run-off 48.6%
Center-left+M5S 20.8%

Benevento: CR Hold
Center-right 49.4% to run-off 52.7%
Center-left 32.4% to run-off 47.3%
Left 13.2%
Right/FdI 5%

Caserta: CL Hold
Center-left 35.3% to run-off 53.6%
Right 30.1% to run-off 46.4%
Right dissident 13%
Local left 10.7%
an other local left 8.1%
an other two candidates 2.8%

Grosseto: R Hold
Right 56.2%
Center-left+M5S 31.1%
Center-left dissident 5.5%
An other five candidates 7.2%

Savona: CL gain from R
Center-left 47.8% to run-off 62.3%
Right 37.3% to run-off 37.7%
M5S 9.8%
Local, center-right leaning 3.9%
an other candidate 1.2%

Novara: R Hold
Right 69.6%
Center-left 20.5%
M5S 6.4%
Center-left dissident 2.6%
an other candidate 0.9%

Busto Arsizio (VA): R Hold
Right 55.1%
Center-left+M5S 20.7%
Center-right 14.7%
Center-left dissident 5.4%
Left 2.6%
an other candidate 1.5%

Gallarate (VA): R Hold
Right 52.8%
Center-left 34%
Local right 6.4%
Local, centrist leaning 5%
an other candidate 1.8%

Varese: CL Hold
Center-left+M5S 48% to run-off 53.2%
Right 44.9% to run-off 46.8%
Local transformist 2.8%
An other four candidates 4.3%

Rho (MI): CL Hold
Center-left 52.5%
Right 32.3%
Local, center-right 12.2%
Left 3%

Pordenone: R Hold
Right 65.4%
Center-left+M5S 29.9%
Local buxom woman 3.2%
An other candidate 1.5%

Olbia (SS): R Hold
Right 52.1%
Center-left+M5S 47.9%

Vittoria (RG) TBD
Center-left 39.1% to run-off 56%
Right 29.5% to run-off 44%
M5S 16.6%
local, left leaning 14.8%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I was looking at Rome data and started doing some #analysis. It seems self-evident that both Calenda voters and Raggi voters split fairly comfortably for Gualtieri in the runoff. Gualtieri's and Michetti's gains from the first round were pretty evenly distributed around the city, but noticeably unusually strong for the latter and weak for the former in what were already the clearest strongholds for Michetti, municipi VI and XV (hilariously two areas very different in many respects). The VI in particular is the only municipio that Gualtieri lost in the runoff, which makes me kind of salty since with such a resounding overall victory I could have asked for a clean sweep. It would have compensated Raggi's clean sweep in 2016.

Further #analysis and maps will probably come up later on when I have more time.