2023 Mexico State Elections

[MRCVzla]

Today were pretty important state elections in Mexico, mostly at Mexico State/Estado de México were PRI-supremacy in on question as the AMLO/Morena-wave continues (?)

Mexico State (almost 17 million inhabitants according 2020 census; 12.7 million registered voters) and Coahuila (3.1 million inhab.; 2.3 million registered voters) elected today their new State Governors for a 6-year term without reelection, in Coahuila also elects their State Legislative composed by 25 members (16 plurality FPTP+9 PR; 3-year term with possibility of reelection).

Coahuila currently is governed by the PRI, the frontrunner is "priista" Manolo Jiménez Salinas, Social Development State Secretary and former Municipal President of the state capital Saltillo, supported by the "Va por México" alliance of PRI-PAN-PRD under the name "Citizen Alliance for Security". The federal government runs divided, Morena supports Armando Guadiana meanwhile the PT supports Ricardo Mejía, a Morena dissident who disagrees of Guadiana' candidacy, also running for a local party (UDC) with the supports of the Greens is Lenín Pérez Rivera in the "Rescue Coahuila" coalition.

But the main story is as wrote early the Mexico State governor race, 2 candidates, both female guaranteed being the first female governor in the State history. PRI-PAN-PRD-PANAL supports State Congresswoman Alejandra del Moral as their option to keep the State in hands of PRI and the federal opposition, while Morena-PT-PVEM supports Delfina Gómez Álvarez, federal Public Education Secretary. On the ballot, the Morena-led alliance runs with a single/joint symbol meanwhile the "Va por México" parties (a total of 4) goes each one with their own symbols. Delfina is the frontrunner according to the polls taked prior of today.

Polls closed just minutes ago, and the count has just started. Already some media outlets projects the victory of Delfina/Morena in the Mexico State race, but Del Moral also calls her victory. Stay tuned.

[jaichind]

MORENA should win Edomex and PRI should win Coahuila

[jaichind]

PREP for Edomex

https://heraldodemexico.com.mx/prep/estado-de-mexico.html

PREP for Coahuila

https://heraldodemexico.com.mx/prep/coahuila-de-zaragoza.html

[jaichind]

One thing is for sure.  If MORENA does not win Eodmex AMLO will claim fraud.

[jaichind]

Edomex (around 3% in)

MORENA-PT-PVEM   53.2%
PRI-PAN-PRD          46.7%

So far closer than expected


Coahuila (around 4% in)

PRI-PAN-PRD          56.8%
MORENA                20.6%
PT                         14.0% (has MORENA background)
UDC-PVEM              8.6% (has PAN background)

Bigger blowout than expected

So far PRI is outperforming but it is ultra early.

[MRCVzla]

The Mexico State Electoral Institute has virtually called the election in favor of the MORENA candidate. Delfina Gómez is projected to have 52.1-54.2% against 43.0-45.2% of her rival Alejandra del Moral.
https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1665553088344739841



Currently with 31.2% of the polls processed. The race is 53.7%-43.4% in favor of Delfina/MORENA

Meanwhile one almost-a-century reign ends, other seems to continue, in Coahuila with 47.2% of the polls processed, Manolo Jímenez (PRI) leads with 56.9%, Guadiana (MORENA) 21.2%, Mejía (PT) 13.5% and Pérez Rivera (UDC/PVEM) 6.0%.

[PSOL]

If MORENA wins Edomex, the PRI will forever be skewered and a junior partner among the Mexican opposition. PAN holds the captaincy in a ship sinking further and further down.

AMLO has done the least to protect human life among the three largest North American nations and has governed as a PRIista worried about deficits instead of building Mexican society, but not even that which would kill any other leader makes a difference to the Mexican people, who hate the tripartite coalition ran in Washington because they remember the pain of the past. This is a huge blow to the United States and holds well that AMLO might break precedent and run another term to cement MORENA as the natural governing party.

AMLO, along with the likes of Erdogan and Antonio Costa, will go down as leaders saved by negative partisanship.

[jaichind]

Edomex (around 88% in)

MORENA-PT-PVEM   54.2%
PRI-PAN-PRD          45.8%

PRI did better than expected but still a solid win by MORENA.  The MORENA candidate, Delfina Gómez Álvarez,  ran in 2017 and lost.  She got her revenge tonight.  She is one of the few MORENA governors that is not a defector of another party (usually PRI or PRD.)


Coahuila (around 93% in)

PRI-PAN-PRD          58.2%
MORENA                22.0%
PT                         13.8% (has MORENA background)
UDC-PVEM              6.0% (has PAN background)

Bigger PRI blowout than expected.  Coahuila is the only state left that PRI has never lost the governorship of.   MORENA's candidate is the same as its candidate in 2017.

[jaichind]

Coahuila also had state legislative elections with PRI-PAN-PRD sweeping all 16 FPTP seats.  The vote per party with around 92% of the vote in shows PRI continues to be strong here

PAN          6.9%
PRI         45.0%
PRD          2.4%
MC           2.1%
UDC         3.3% (former PAN regionist ally)
PVEM        4.6%
PT            8.7%
MORENA  26.9%

Historically the state is PRI vs PAN but with the rise of MORENA, it seems a good part of the old PAN vote has gone over to PRI.

[jaichind]

PRI losing Edomex is good news for MORENA in the short run but good news for PAN in the long run.  With the old PRI fortress Edomex finally falling to MORENA what is left of the rural Edomex PRI machine vote will fall to MORENA in 2024 which makes up for a swing from MORENA to PAN in urban DF. 

2024 will be a fight for survival for both PRI and PAN but especially PRI.  This is why I doubt there will be a PRI-PAN united front in 2024 which should mean a MORENA win.  With PRI losing Edomex I am not sure PRI will have the funds to fight the 2024 national election.  This means that PAN is more likely to emerge from 2024 to become the alternative to MORENA while PRI declines to a third party and then with only regional pockets of influence.

[jaichind]

Map of governors after the 2023 elections.  The PES-ruled state is MORENA all but in name. The opposition now pushed into the North and part of the Yucatan with the rest all controlled by MORENA.

[jaichind]

The 2024 Governors elections will be

Chiapas: Current MORENA
DF: Current MORENA
Guanajuato: Current PAN
Jalisco: Current MC
Morelos: Current PES (backed by MORENA)
Puebla: Current MORENA
Tabasco: Current MORENA
Veracruz: Current MORENA
Yucatán: Current PAN

Frankly, I do not see any of them flipping.  Perhaps there might be some sort of PAN-PRI alliance in DF leading to some sort of urbanite anti-MORENA surge but that seems unlikely in a Presidental election year.

[JM1295]

Is it too early or can we already start a 2024 presidential election thread? Just asking since some MORENA candidates are already resigning for their positions to seek the nomination.

[jaichind]

Is it too early or can we already start a 2024 presidential election thread? Just asking since some MORENA candidates are already resigning for their positions to seek the nomination.

You can start a thread 1 year before the election which would mean you can do it in July 2023

[jaichind]

Massive caller poll for 2024 Prez election

So far a consistently large MORENA lead and I am skeptical that PAN-PRI can even form an alliance. If PRI does not run a candidate and back PAN then PRi as a national party will be finished.

[PSOL]

MC seems to be holding up well. What exactly are they campaigning on after leaving the main opposition coalition.