TX-GQR Research: Cruz +6

[Calthrina950]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He is much weaker than Abbott, and Beto is much stronger than Valdez. Also, Texas is usually bluer (comparatively) on the federal than state level. Plus he gaffes up so often, while Beto is comparatively fleek, and Valdez has tons of scandals, but Abbott is relatively fleek.

I see. That makes sense. Abbott seems like a reasonable Governor to me, but Cruz is an unlikable charlatan and a ideological extremist. If I were a Texas voter, I would be splitting my ticket.

[President Johnson]

Yep, Cruz is Safe.

Yeah, but if Sherrod Brown was only up 6 he wouldn't be?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He holds the bible high, and he lies!

[UWS]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He holds the bible high, and he lies!

[junior chįmp]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He holds the bible high, and he lies!

Fact check: True!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He is much weaker than Abbott, and Beto is much stronger than Valdez. Also, Texas is usually bluer (comparatively) on the federal than state level. Plus he gaffes up so often, while Beto is comparatively fleek, and Valdez has tons of scandals, but Abbott is relatively fleek.

I see. That makes sense. Abbott seems like a reasonable Governor to me, but Cruz is an unlikable charlatan and a ideological extremist. If I were a Texas voter, I would be splitting my ticket.

Also O'Rourke and Abbott are relatively local guys who are mostly all about Texas, while Cruz is part of the DC Swamp, and Valdez has held several dalliances with the federal party and was doing some things that really had little to do with her much needed role of saving our dilapidated law enforcement departments and weak morale and jail infrastructure (like working on federal immigration task forces with Obama) while only partially improving conditions here locally. I think she was a decent to good sheriff, but she had the potential to do more and be much better, but a lot of those times she was just hanging out with the national party. Just a general breakdown that you could classify O'Rourke and Abbott as the Texan guys, while Cruz and Valdez kind of cared about Texas, but really had higher less local ambitions all along, and substantially more swampier.

[Lachi]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

People think know he's a dick.

FTFY

[Calthrina950]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He is much weaker than Abbott, and Beto is much stronger than Valdez. Also, Texas is usually bluer (comparatively) on the federal than state level. Plus he gaffes up so often, while Beto is comparatively fleek, and Valdez has tons of scandals, but Abbott is relatively fleek.

I see. That makes sense. Abbott seems like a reasonable Governor to me, but Cruz is an unlikable charlatan and a ideological extremist. If I were a Texas voter, I would be splitting my ticket.

Also O'Rourke and Abbott are relatively local guys who are mostly all about Texas, while Cruz is part of the DC Swamp, and Valdez has held several dalliances with the federal party and was doing some things that really had little to do with her much needed role of saving our dilapidated law enforcement departments and weak morale and jail infrastructure (like working on federal immigration task forces with Obama) while only partially improving conditions here locally. I think she was a decent to good sheriff, but she had the potential to do more and be much better, but a lot of those times she was just hanging out with the national party. Just a general breakdown that you could classify O'Rourke and Abbott as the Texan guys, while Cruz and Valdez kind of cared about Texas, but really had higher less local ambitions all along, and substantially more swampier.

I see. Thank you for this analysis. Now it makes sense to me as to why these races are shaping up as they are. Even though Cruz will win in the end, I do hope that this year will begin laying the foundations for a political change in Texas in the near future, at least on the federal level.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He is much weaker than Abbott, and Beto is much stronger than Valdez. Also, Texas is usually bluer (comparatively) on the federal than state level. Plus he gaffes up so often, while Beto is comparatively fleek, and Valdez has tons of scandals, but Abbott is relatively fleek.

I see. That makes sense. Abbott seems like a reasonable Governor to me, but Cruz is an unlikable charlatan and a ideological extremist. If I were a Texas voter, I would be splitting my ticket.

Also O'Rourke and Abbott are relatively local guys who are mostly all about Texas, while Cruz is part of the DC Swamp, and Valdez has held several dalliances with the federal party and was doing some things that really had little to do with her much needed role of saving our dilapidated law enforcement departments and weak morale and jail infrastructure (like working on federal immigration task forces with Obama) while only partially improving conditions here locally. I think she was a decent to good sheriff, but she had the potential to do more and be much better, but a lot of those times she was just hanging out with the national party. Just a general breakdown that you could classify O'Rourke and Abbott as the Texan guys, while Cruz and Valdez kind of cared about Texas, but really had higher less local ambitions all along, and substantially more swampier.

I see. Thank you for this analysis. Now it makes sense to me as to why these races are shaping up as they are. Even though Cruz will win in the end, I do hope that this year will begin laying the foundations for a political change in Texas in the near future, at least on the federal level.

Np, yeah things are changing in Texas.

[forgotten manatee]

Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.

All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.

[Skye]

Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.

All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.

It's Texas.

[cvparty]

Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.

All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.

It's Texas.

*rolls eyes*

[Doimper]

Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.

All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.

It's Texas.

George Allen isn't in danger. It's Virginia.

[wxtransit]

Currently here's what I think will happen:

1% chance of a Cruz 20+ point win
2% chance of a Cruz 15-19 point win
7% chance of a Cruz 10-14 point win
45% chance of a Cruz 5-9 point win
20% chance of a Cruz 0-4 point win
15% chance of a Beto 0-4 point win
6% chance of a Beto 5-9 point win
3% chance of a Beto 10-14 point win
1% chance of a Beto 15+ point win

[wxtransit]

Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.

All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.

Yes, possibly, but do remember that Texas is (by and large, there are very notable exceptions) a relatively socially conservative state. This factor is quite divisive, and quite possibly will be enough to drive enough people to the polls to shut out a Beto win. If the Democrats were running someone in the mold of Conor Lamb, then I'd say Cruz would be truly vulnerable.

Though we're still months away, so anything can happen.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.

All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.

It's Texas.

George Allen isn't in danger. It's Virginia.

Democrats won the 1994 Senate race in VA and they won the 2001 and 2005 governors races. The TX Democrats can presently only dream of similar successes. Governor Tony Sanchez and Chris Bell say hi!
Cruz is in danger of a close race. He's not in that much danger of losing.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He holds the bible high, and he lies!

Fact check: True!

Source : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BL4OEMU8tk

[junior chįmp]

Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.

All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.

It's Texas.

2 months before the midterms of 1994; in the Texas gubernatorial race, Ann Richards was leading Bush 47% to 43% with 10% saying they did not know who they would vote for if the election was held today. Furthermore Bush was still considered a long shot victory then:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It would not be far-fetched for Cruz to somehow lose in the end or barely make it across in the end.

If somehow Latinos actually bothered to turnout or with all the demographic/generational changes coupled with the terrible national environment under Trump came together in a perfect mix then its possible for Cruz to loze.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.

All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.

Yes, possibly, but do remember that Texas is (by and large, there are very notable exceptions) a relatively socially conservative state. This factor is quite divisive, and quite possibly will be enough to drive enough people to the polls to shut out a Beto win. If the Democrats were running someone in the mold of Conor Lamb, then I'd say Cruz would be truly vulnerable.

Though we're still months away, so anything can happen.

We should have gotten Cuellar.

[Skye]

Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.

All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.

It's Texas.

*rolls eyes*

What I mean is that Cruz isn't really vulnerable right now, because Texas is still hostile territory to Democrats. Even with all the stuff he listed, Cruz has gotten decent leads so yeah, that's why I think he'll end up winning.

Could he become vulnerable? I do think there is a possibility, and I've been saying for quite some time that O'Rourke could get a good % of the vote, at least better than any Democrat in recent memory. But if things keep going like they are right now, he'll probably still lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn isn't losing

[Pandaguineapig]

Probably a good sign for Cruz if this is the best a Democratic internal can do

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Currently here's what I think will happen:

1% chance of a Cruz 20+ point win
2% chance of a Cruz 15-19 point win
15% chance of a Cruz 10-14 point win
55% chance of a Cruz 5-9 point win
26% chance of a Cruz 0-4 point win
0.7% chance of a Beto 0-4 point win
0.2% chance of a Beto 5-9 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 10-14 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 15+ point win

FTFY

[Politician]

Currently here's what I think will happen:

1% chance of a Cruz 20+ point win
2% chance of a Cruz 15-19 point win
15% chance of a Cruz 10-14 point win
55% chance of a Cruz 5-9 point win
26% chance of a Cruz 0-4 point win
0.7% chance of a Beto 0-4 point win
0.2% chance of a Beto 5-9 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 10-14 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 15+ point win

FTFY

You do realize Cruz is only leading by 6, whereas Sherrod Brown, who you think is very vulnerable, is leading by 18?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Currently here's what I think will happen:

1% chance of a Cruz 20+ point win
2% chance of a Cruz 15-19 point win
15% chance of a Cruz 10-14 point win
55% chance of a Cruz 5-9 point win
26% chance of a Cruz 0-4 point win
0.7% chance of a Beto 0-4 point win
0.2% chance of a Beto 5-9 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 10-14 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 15+ point win

FTFY

You do realize Cruz is only leading by 6, whereas Sherrod Brown, who you think is very vulnerable, is leading by 18?

'very vulnerable' is an exaggeration. I have Sherrod favored to win. Furthermore, I simply don't believe there are enough votes to elect a Democrat in Texas regardless of the environment.