All-County Sweeps Since 1932

[Calthrina950]

Delaware is funny.  Carter swept it in 1976 (caught your mistake there), then all three counties flipped against him in 1980, in spite of Carter only losing the state by 2 points.  Yet Obama couldn't sweep Delaware, even with his 25-point victory in 2008.

He only lost New Castle by 1 vote.

That is something. In 1964, Johnson got 60.95% in Delaware, compared to Obama's 61.94% in 2008, but won all three counties by double digits, if I am not mistaken. The only explanation for this would be demographic and voting pattern changes.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona's Democratic dominance during the FDR era is pretty impressive.

Not really, the state was a Democratic stronghold downballot until Barry Goldwater mucked everything up.

And before JFK, the state was a D-leaning bellwether.

Eisenhower performed better than his national average in Arizona in both 1952 and 1956, although 1960 was indeed the first election in Arizona's history that it did not vote for the national winner, and also the first in which a winning Democrat did worse there than his national average.

One interesting fact about 1960 is that it is the only presidential election in American history, since the beginning of the modern popular vote in 1824, in which no state was swept by a particular presidential candidate. Kennedy and Nixon both won at least one county in every state. Conversely, Bill Clinton in 1996 is the last presidential candidate to win at least one county in every state; every election since 2000 has seen an all-county sweep for one party or the other. That will obviously continue this year, as Biden will sweep every county in Massachusetts and Hawaii (and possibly every county in Rhode Island and Vermont as well), while Trump will probably sweep West Virginia.

Delaware is funny.  Carter swept it in 1976 (caught your mistake there), then all three counties flipped against him in 1980, in spite of Carter only losing the state by 2 points.  Yet Obama couldn't sweep Delaware, even with his 25-point victory in 2008.

He only lost New Castle by 1 vote.

That is something. In 1964, Johnson got 60.95% in Delaware, compared to Obama's 61.94% in 2008, but won all three counties by double digits, if I am not mistaken. The only explanation for this would be demographic and voting pattern changes.

Expanding upon this, I understand now why Obama did better than Johnson in Delaware, although he did not win all of the state's counties like Johnson did. Obama got nearly 70% of the vote in New Castle County, Delaware's most populous county, while Johnson received "only" 63% there. That accounts for the difference in their performances. As I've come to appreciate, land doesn't vote, but people do.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona's Democratic dominance during the FDR era is pretty impressive.

Not really, the state was a Democratic stronghold downballot until Barry Goldwater mucked everything up.

And before JFK, the state was a D-leaning bellwether.

Eisenhower performed better than his national average in Arizona in both 1952 and 1956, although 1960 was indeed the first election in Arizona's history that it did not vote for the national winner, and also the first in which a winning Democrat did worse there than his national average.

One interesting fact about 1960 is that it is the only presidential election in American history, since the beginning of the modern popular vote in 1824, in which no state was swept by a particular presidential candidate. Kennedy and Nixon both won at least one county in every state. Conversely, Bill Clinton in 1996 is the last presidential candidate to win at least one county in every state; every election since 2000 has seen an all-county sweep for one party or the other. That will obviously continue this year, as Biden will sweep every county in Massachusetts and Hawaii (and possibly every county in Rhode Island and Vermont as well), while Trump will probably sweep West Virginia.

Delaware is funny.  Carter swept it in 1976 (caught your mistake there), then all three counties flipped against him in 1980, in spite of Carter only losing the state by 2 points.  Yet Obama couldn't sweep Delaware, even with his 25-point victory in 2008.

He only lost New Castle by 1 vote.

That is something. In 1964, Johnson got 60.95% in Delaware, compared to Obama's 61.94% in 2008, but won all three counties by double digits, if I am not mistaken. The only explanation for this would be demographic and voting pattern changes.

Expanding upon this, I understand now why Obama did better than Johnson in Delaware, although he did not win all of the state's counties like Johnson did. Obama got nearly 70% of the vote in New Castle County, Delaware's most populous county, while Johnson received "only" 63% there. That accounts for the difference in their performances. As I've come to appreciate, land doesn't vote, but people do.

Here's the map for 2020:

As I had predicted, Biden did indeed sweep every county in Massachusetts and Hawaii-where no Republican has won any counties since 1988 and 1984 respectively-and he managed to sweep Rhode Island by flipping back Kent County. However, Biden failed to sweep Vermont (like Obama had in 2008 and 2012), as Essex County remained loyal to Trump by a 11% margin. Trump did indeed sweep West Virginia again, and he also swept Oklahoma, making 2020 the fifth consecutive election in which all Oklahoma counties have gone Republican and the third consecutive election in which all West Virginia counties have done so. Given how close Biden came to winning Oklahoma and Monongalia Counties, however, I don't think these streaks will last for much longer.

[Calthrina950]

Here's the map for 2020:

interesting, Biden didn't sweep his own home state even though it only had three whole counties.

As noted above, Obama did not sweep Delaware in either 2008 or 2012. The last Democrat to do so was Bill Clinton in 1996. Sussex County, the most Republican county in Delaware, voted for Trump by an 11% margin. Biden performed about as well in Delaware as Obama had in 2012. Coons and Carney both did about the same as Biden as well, losing Sussex County and winning with ~58-59% of the vote. Carper performed similarly in 2018, winning by the same margin and also losing Sussex County. This suggests that Delaware has trended rightwards slightly over the past decade, although New Castle County has become more Democratic and will continue to maintain Delaware's status as a Safe D state.

[Calthrina950]

2020 was probably Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Rhode Island for the Democrats and West Virginia and Oklahoma for the Republicans. 2024 I think will only be Massachusetts and Hawaii for the Democrats and Oklahoma, West Virginia, Wyoming, and (maybe) Nevada if they play their cards right for the Republicans.

Wyoming hasn't seen an all-Republican county sweep since 2000. Teton County gave Biden 67% of the vote last year; he improved by 10% over Hillary Clinton there. It is absolutely Safe D. Nevada will not be an all-county sweep for Republicans even if they manage to narrowly win the state, as Clark County would probably still go Democratic by around mid single-digits in such a scenario. As for Oklahoma and West Virginia, I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of Oklahoma and Monongalia Counties flipped. Both came close to doing so last year, and Trump failed to obtain an absolute majority in either.

[Calthrina950]

1996 last election where the Republicans didn't get a county sweep in any state/Democrats won at least one county in every state.

1984 last election where the Democrats didn't get a county sweep in any state/Republicans won at least one county in every state.

Guess that's not surprising since those elections were blowouts (though 1984 much more so than 1996).

Edit: something else I noticed...every successfully reelected (not just elected in own right) president won a county in every state until Dubya and Obama broke the trend. Polarization? The fact that those elections were closer?

Yes, Truman and LBJ did it, but only got shut out in MS.

They were also shut out in Alabama, as they were not on the ballot in that state. Thurmond almost swept Alabama, losing only ancestrally Republican Winston County, which Thomas Dewey carried with 64%. In 1964, six counties voted for the Unpledged Electors slate over Goldwater-Colbert, Cherokee, Jackson, Lauderdale, Limestone, and Macon. The first five counties are in Northern Alabama, and objected to Goldwater's TVA privatization proposals (which also cost him support in Northeastern Mississippi, far northern South Carolina, and in the Outer South states like Arkansas, Tennessee, and North Carolina that he lost), while Macon County is the blackest (and in the modern era, most Democratic) county in the state, and was one of the few places in the Deep South where blacks were enfranchised to any appreciable extent by that point.

Moreover, most of the Republican Presidents who won in the Jim Crow Era did so while not carrying a single county in some of the Southern states-primarily Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. Warren G. Harding, for example, did not win a single county in Mississippi or South Carolina against James Cox in 1920, despite getting over 60% of the national popular vote, and Herbert Hoover won no counties in South Carolina in 1928. In fact, no Republican won any counties in South Carolina at all between 1900 and 1952.