CA-Gov. Megathread: Newsom versus Cox

[Sir Mohamed]

I created a new thread since the previous ones were about the primary campaign.


It's now official: Governor Jerry Brown has endorsed Gavin Newsom at a campaign rally. Not a surprise, but a great move.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ventura County Star

[Skye]

Newsom wins. End of thread.

[Politician]

Newsom wins. End of thread.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Newsom wins. End of thread.

I'm gonna say Cox gets 38%

[Canis]

Yeah Newsom has this the question is what percent will Cox get. I'd say 36% he'll definitely out preform Trump but I don't think he has the appeal to win over a lot of the Moderates who voted for Kashkari and became Romney-Clinton voters which California has a lot of.

[President Johnson]

I created a new thread since the previous ones were about the primary campaign.


It's now official: Governor Jerry Brown has endorsed Gavin Newsom at a campaign rally. Not a surprise, but a great move.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ventura County Star

Massive FF endorses massive FF.

Yeah Newsom has this the question is what percent will Cox get. I'd say 36% he'll definitely out preform Trump but I don't think he has the appeal to win over a lot of the Moderates who voted for Kashkari and became Romney-Clinton voters which California has a lot of.

I suspect he'll end up with about 37% or 38%, and Newsom 62% or 63%. The bigger question is how popular Newsom will be? Sometimes I believe he may have popular start and then become Gray Davis 2.0. But it's just a feeling, not evidence based.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I suspect he'll end up with about 37% or 38%, and Newsom 62% or 63%. The bigger question is how popular Newsom will be? Sometimes I believe he may have popular start and then become Gray Davis 2.0. But it's just a feeling, not evidence based.

I went to one of his speeches a few weeks back and one of my friends asked him about the budget. Newsom said that he supported a balanced budget (and pointed to his record in SF), but noted that he thought that he might have to deal with a recession as opposed to Brown, who has had a booming economy for most of his second stint.

[President Johnson]

I suspect he'll end up with about 37% or 38%, and Newsom 62% or 63%. The bigger question is how popular Newsom will be? Sometimes I believe he may have popular start and then become Gray Davis 2.0. But it's just a feeling, not evidence based.

I went to one of his speeches a few weeks back and one of my friends asked him about the budget. Newsom said that he supported a balanced budget (and pointed to his record in SF), but noted that he thought that he might have to deal with a recession as opposed to Brown, who has had a booming economy for most of his second stint.

The same essentially happend to Gray Davis. He came into office in 1999 after a landslide victory during the new economy and invested in education while leaving some surplus in the treasury. By 2001 things began to worsen due to an economic downturn and the electricity crisis and he was running record deficits. After his narrow reelection in 2002, as we know, he got thrown out of office in the recall. But Arnie didn't really solve the budget problem, Brown straightened it out.

[Oryxslayer]

I suspect he'll end up with about 37% or 38%, and Newsom 62% or 63%. The bigger question is how popular Newsom will be? Sometimes I believe he may have popular start and then become Gray Davis 2.0. But it's just a feeling, not evidence based.

I went to one of his speeches a few weeks back and one of my friends asked him about the budget. Newsom said that he supported a balanced budget (and pointed to his record in SF), but noted that he thought that he might have to deal with a recession as opposed to Brown, who has had a booming economy for most of his second stint.

The same essentially happend to Gray Davis. He came into office in 1999 after a landslide victory during the new economy and invested in education while leaving some surplus in the treasury. By 2001 things began to worsen due to an economic downturn and the electricity crisis and he was running record deficits. After his narrow reelection in 2002, as we know, he got thrown out of office in the recall. But Arnie didn't really solve the budget problem, Brown straightened it out.

Yeah but the energy crisis was what really brought Davis down, not the economic shock. Nobody likes repeated blackouts in a modern developed country, and once the depth of the Enron scandal was loose, it was only natural people were going to blame the government in one form or another.

[Sir Mohamed]

I suspect he'll end up with about 37% or 38%, and Newsom 62% or 63%. The bigger question is how popular Newsom will be? Sometimes I believe he may have popular start and then become Gray Davis 2.0. But it's just a feeling, not evidence based.

I went to one of his speeches a few weeks back and one of my friends asked him about the budget. Newsom said that he supported a balanced budget (and pointed to his record in SF), but noted that he thought that he might have to deal with a recession as opposed to Brown, who has had a booming economy for most of his second stint.

The same essentially happend to Gray Davis. He came into office in 1999 after a landslide victory during the new economy and invested in education while leaving some surplus in the treasury. By 2001 things began to worsen due to an economic downturn and the electricity crisis and he was running record deficits. After his narrow reelection in 2002, as we know, he got thrown out of office in the recall. But Arnie didn't really solve the budget problem, Brown straightened it out.

Yeah but the energy crisis was what really brought Davis down, not the economic shock. Nobody likes repeated blackouts in a modern developed country, and once the depth of the Enron scandal was loose, it was only natural people were going to blame the government in one form or another.

Correct, and Davis had other problems in addition. Particulary his pay-for-play stuff was very unpopular. The dude raised and spent record sums just to bring down a moderate GOPer in the primary, against whom he would have lost badly.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Initial guess 63-37 Newsom wins.

[I’m not Stu]

Primary map. Fixed county margins.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

What will the general election County map look like? I would say it probably ends up as a repeat of the 2012 Presidential Map.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

D/R combined primary map:



2018-2014 primary swing:

[Oryxslayer]

D/R combined primary map:



2018-2014 primary swing:

Look at those SoCal swings O_o

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Look at those SoCal swings O_o

Helps that turnout was so pitiful in 2014. Regardless, some of the swings down here are incredible


County                 '18 margin     '14 margin     18-14 swing

Los Angeles          45.96%          26.56%        +19.4%
Orange                    0.5%          18.44%        +18.9%
Riverside                2.99%          10.69%        +7.7%
San Diego             15.33%              1.8%       +17.1%
San Bernardino        1.68%          15.18%       +13.5%
Santa Barbara        21.22%            9.55%      +11.7%
Ventura                 13.29%            3.06%       +16.4%

[IceSpear]

What's with Riverside? Even Betty Yee didn't carry it.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

What's with Riverside? Even Betty Yee didn't carry it.

My home county, so I'm wondering that myself. Here's some excuses I could think of:



- Lack of exciting primaries (Except for AD-60, incumbents are pretty safe this year)

- Nonpartisan races dominated by incumbent/local republicans (Sheriff/Supervisor/DA races)

- Low turnout/votes in bluer districts. Yee won the 36th & 41st with 11000 votes each, but lost Calvert's 42nd district by 22000 votes

- General apathy (Linked with the first one)

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Look at those SoCal swings O_o

Helps that turnout was so pitiful in 2014. Regardless, some of the swings down here are incredible


County                 '18 margin     '14 margin     18-14 swing

Los Angeles          45.96%          26.56%        +19.4%
Orange                    0.5%          18.44%        +18.9%
Riverside                2.99%          10.69%        +7.7%
San Diego             15.33%              1.8%       +17.1%
San Bernardino        1.68%          15.18%       +13.5%
Santa Barbara        21.22%            9.55%      +11.7%
Ventura                 13.29%            3.06%       +16.4%

Wow, Santa Barbara County swung hard to the dems.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Combined ballot swing from the 2018 & 2010 primaries

[President Johnson]

With the latest vote dump, Newsom has cracked 60% of the vote share on CNN. He's also close to 5 million votes now. According to CNN, 72% are in, but that number hasn't changed since Friday or so.

[Calthrina950]

With the latest vote dump, Newsom has cracked 60% of the vote share on CNN. He's also close to 5 million votes now. According to CNN, 72% are in, but that number hasn't changed since Friday or so.

That's good to hear. Prior to this, David Ige in Hawaii was the only Democratic Governor to breach 60%. Three Republicans did so last Tuesday-Charlie Baker, Asa Hutchinson, and Mark Gordon. Newsom cracking 60% makes the map more aesthetically pleasing.

[politicallefty]

I never doubted Newsom getting above 60%. It’s actually surprising how few governors were elected with more than 60% of the vote.

[President Johnson]

With the latest vote dump, Newsom has cracked 60% of the vote share on CNN. He's also close to 5 million votes now. According to CNN, 72% are in, but that number hasn't changed since Friday or so.

That's good to hear. Prior to this, David Ige in Hawaii was the only Democratic Governor to breach 60%. Three Republicans did so last Tuesday-Charlie Baker, Asa Hutchinson, and Mark Gordon. Newsom cracking 60% makes the map more aesthetically pleasing.

Too bad Andrew Cuomo "only" got 59% in New York, although he broke Nelson Rockefeller's record from 1970 for the most votes cast (3.3 million) in any New York gubernatorial election. Tom Wolf also made it close to 58% in his election.

Gavin Newsom should also break the record for the most votes ever cast in the gubernatorial election California. And therefore the most votes ever cast in any gubernatorial election in America.

[Mr. Smith]

With the latest vote dump, Newsom has cracked 60% of the vote share on CNN. He's also close to 5 million votes now. According to CNN, 72% are in, but that number hasn't changed since Friday or so.

CNN thinks Ro Khanna lost too.