FL-Morning Consult: Scott +1

[Skye]

U.S. Senator Connie Mack is also very pleased at the July 2012 poll that found him up 9 points against Nelson.

Kinda like governor Charlie Crist after all those polls showing him beating Scott comfortably early in the race.

[IceSpear]

U.S. Senator Connie Mack is also very pleased at the July 2012 poll that found him up 9 points against Nelson.

Kinda like governor Charlie Crist after all those polls showing him beating Scott comfortably early in the race.

And Sen. Charlie Crist who defeated sacrificial lambs in the primary/general in a landslide.

(Poor Charlie Crist)

[Politician]

U.S. Senator Connie Mack is also very pleased at the July 2012 poll that found him up 9 points against Nelson.

Kinda like governor Charlie Crist after all those polls showing him beating Scott comfortably early in the race.

And Sen. Charlie Crist who defeated sacrificial lambs in the primary/general in a landslide.

(Poor Charlie Crist)

At least he's a rep now.

[Calthrina950]

While I am doubtful that Rick Scott will win, because of the national environment, I still think that people are grossly overestimating how well Nelson will do. It would not surprise me if this race were decided by 2 points or less. Florida is the quintessential example of a tossup state, and the polls here are reflective of that. 

[Politician]

While I am doubtful that Rick Scott will win, because of the national environment, I still think that people are grossly overestimating how well Nelson will do. It would not surprise me if this race were decided by 2 points or less. Florida is the quintessential example of a tossup state, and the polls here are reflective of that. 

Don't you always predict Democrats will lose or otherwise do badly?

[Calthrina950]

While I am doubtful that Rick Scott will win, because of the national environment, I still think that people are grossly overestimating how well Nelson will do. It would not surprise me if this race were decided by 2 points or less. Florida is the quintessential example of a tossup state, and the polls here are reflective of that. 

Don't you always predict Democrats will lose or otherwise do badly?

No. I merely try to provide what is, in my view, a realistic opinion on these races. I think that the Democrats are poised to make gains this year, and that they will take back the House, but I don't think they should get too overconfident. Overconfidence tends to hurt more than it helps.

[KingSweden]

While I am doubtful that Rick Scott will win, because of the national environment, I still think that people are grossly overestimating how well Nelson will do. It would not surprise me if this race were decided by 2 points or less. Florida is the quintessential example of a tossup state, and the polls here are reflective of that. 

Don't you always predict Democrats will lose or otherwise do badly?

No. I merely try to provide what is, in my view, a realistic opinion on these races. I think that the Democrats are poised to make gains this year, and that they will take back the House, but I don't think they should get too overconfident. Overconfidence tends to hurt more than it helps.

A perfectly reasonable stance.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nelson will win by 2.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You know Scott narrowly winning at this point is not super surprising. Not sure why so many people scoff at this.

No, I agree that this is hardly a surprising result, but Morning Consult is definitely not a good pollster, and there’s something fishy about their methodology.

This is obviously a competitive race, and Nelson is arguably more vulnerable than some of the Romney state Democrats at this point (which is not really that surprising anyway), but he should still win by an underwhelming margin in a Democratic wave. The trajectory of this race has been pretty hilarious though, seeing as how polling has continually shown improved Republican prospects here even as the national environment kept deteriorating for the GOP and their national prospects have basically eroded.

Under few circumstances is a win by either party on the statewide level underwhelming. It is just such a competitive state that even the narrowest edging out is a big win.

[MT Treasurer]

Under few circumstances is a win by either party on the statewide level underwhelming. It is just such a competitive state that even the narrowest edging out is a big win.

When you’ve won your last two elections by 22 and 13 points, respectively, and then struggle to hold your seat in a massive Democratic wave year, that’s definitely underwhelming, regardless of the fact that Scott is obviously Nelson's strongest challenger yet.

[Xing]

You could list about 20 candidates in the past several cycles who were slightly ahead at this point who lost later on, sometimes by small margins, sometimes by larger margins.

I don't think too many Democrats are denying that this race is competitive, the argument is simply that Nelson is still more likely to win than not in a very good Democratic year. While some Democrats may underestimate Scott, Republicans definitely overestimate him. If he's already at a super high approval rating and has near universal name recognition, how can his numbers improve short of the national environment becoming more favorable for Republicans?

[Calthrina950]

Under few circumstances is a win by either party on the statewide level underwhelming. It is just such a competitive state that even the narrowest edging out is a big win.

When you’ve won your last two elections by 22 and 13 points, respectively, and then struggle to hold your seat in a massive Democratic wave year, that’s definitely underwhelming, regardless of the fact that Scott is obviously Nelson's strongest challenger yet.

And it's also interesting how Nelson's margins have declined as time goes on. It is clear from the polls that this race will be decided by single digits either way. Perhaps it's also a sign of the intensified political polarization that has impacted the country...

[Sir Mohamed]

It's a questionable pollster, but I could see the seat flipping if the midterms don't turn out too bad for the GOP. FL goes red (or Atlas blue) before MT and WV. But I still think Nelson is favored to win by circa three points.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's a questionable pollster, but I could see the seat flipping if the midterms don't turn out too bad for the GOP. FL goes red (or Atlas blue) before MT and WV. But I still think Nelson is favored to win by circa three points.

Yeah, it is probably worth taking this race seriously at this point.

[ajc0918]

Scott has spent $17M so far and this race is still a complete toss up. Lol.

[Person Man]

Scott has spent $17M so far and this race is still a complete toss up. Lol.

Is he trying to buy the Senate?

[KingSweden]

It's a questionable pollster, but I could see the seat flipping if the midterms don't turn out too bad for the GOP. FL goes red (or Atlas blue) before MT and WV. But I still think Nelson is favored to win by circa three points.

Yeah, it is probably worth taking this race seriously at this point.

[Politician]

Under few circumstances is a win by either party on the statewide level underwhelming. It is just such a competitive state that even the narrowest edging out is a big win.

When you’ve won your last two elections by 22 and 13 points, respectively, and then struggle to hold your seat in a massive Democratic wave year, that’s definitely underwhelming, regardless of the fact that Scott is obviously Nelson's strongest challenger yet.

And it's also interesting how Nelson's margins have declined as time goes on. It is clear from the polls that this race will be decided by single digits either way. Perhaps it's also a sign of the intensified political polarization that has impacted the country...

Nelson will almost certainly retire in 2024, due to his age (he'd be 81 by then) and his declining political strength.

[Calthrina950]

Under few circumstances is a win by either party on the statewide level underwhelming. It is just such a competitive state that even the narrowest edging out is a big win.

When you’ve won your last two elections by 22 and 13 points, respectively, and then struggle to hold your seat in a massive Democratic wave year, that’s definitely underwhelming, regardless of the fact that Scott is obviously Nelson's strongest challenger yet.

And it's also interesting how Nelson's margins have declined as time goes on. It is clear from the polls that this race will be decided by single digits either way. Perhaps it's also a sign of the intensified political polarization that has impacted the country...

Nelson will almost certainly retire in 2024, due to his age (he'd be 81 by then) and his declining political strength.

This is exactly what I was thinking.

[mencken]

Regardless of whether Scott is leading or not, it is pretty pathetic that Nelson is not winning this race by double digits. Brown and Casey are winning by more typical margins of swing state Democratic incumbents in a Democratic year; Nelson is the outlier.

[OneJ]

Regardless of whether Scott is leading or not, it is pretty pathetic that Nelson is not winning this race by double digits. Brown and Casey are winning by more typical margins in this environment; Nelson is the outlier.

To be fair, Scott is a popular governor just as Nelson is a popular incumbent Senator and Scott is seemingly stronger than Nelson’s past opponents.

[Politician]

Regardless of whether Scott is leading or not, it is pretty pathetic that Nelson is not winning this race by double digits. Brown and Casey are winning by more typical margins of swing state Democratic incumbents in a Democratic year; Nelson is the outlier.

Can you ever do something other than concern troll?

[Bidenworth2020]

Florida always has been and always will be a pure 50-50 state.

Senator Catherine Harris agrees.

[mencken]

Regardless of whether Scott is leading or not, it is pretty pathetic that Nelson is not winning this race by double digits. Brown and Casey are winning by more typical margins of swing state Democratic incumbents in a Democratic year; Nelson is the outlier.

Can you ever do something other than concern troll?

Not sure how that is concern trolling since 1) I unabashedly want Democrats to lose everywhere, 2) I gave a fair assessment of the Senate races in Ohio and Pennsylvania, even though they are Democratic locks IMHO, 3) No swing state incumbent in a favorable year to his party comes to mind who won by <10 points, and 4) I still think Nelson will win in the end; I merely take amusement at his patheticness.

[ON Progressive]

I don't think OH and PA are comparable to FL right now. Brown and Casey are both facing very bad opponents, while Nelson is facing a popular governor.

Also, Nelson has always done weaker in early polling than the actual election. There were multiple polls in July showing him down as much as 9%, and he ended up winning by 13%. Granted, he is very unlikely to win by 13%, unless Scott somehow tanks in popularity.