MD- Gonzales Research: Hogan +11,+14,+18

[Predictor]

Hogan - 48%
Baker - 37%

Hogan - 50%
Madaleno - 36%

Hogan - 52%
Jealous - 34%

800 LV, +/- 3.5%, conducted June 4-10
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-gonzales-poll-20180611-story.html

Other interesting notes:

• 46% of Democrats polled listed removing Trump from office as their most important issue in the primary. The second is education, at 26%
• Baker leads Jealous 25% to 23% in the Democrat primary. Madaleno is 3rd with 9%
• Hogan's approval is at 75% and his favorable rating is at 64%
• Trump's approval in MD is 37%

[Skye]

Likely R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely R.

[ON Progressive]

Likely R.

[Frodo]

If Gov. Larry Hogan is re-elected, as seems likely, he would be the first Republican in sixty years to have won a second term.  The only other Republican governor to have served two consecutive terms is Theodore Roosevelt McKeldin, who served during the Eisenhower years.  

[Xing]

Short of a major blunder on Hogan's part, he's probably not in any trouble. It would be nice to get more polls of other states for a change, since it's pretty clear what the state of the race is here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Short of a major blunder on Hogan's part, he's probably not in any trouble. It would be nice to get more polls of other states for a change, since it's pretty clear what the state of the race is here.

Like WI or ME, we haven't seen any of those lately

[IceSpear]

Objectively this race seems likely R, but it also seems like exactly the type of race that everyone assumes is safe early on then causes a shocker on election night. In other words, I can't shake the feeling that Hogan could very well be Hogan'd. Or at least gets a huge scare. He's hovering around 50%, it's still early, and Dems have yet to get a nominee and attempt to consolidate their base. Even if the wave nationwide is not as big as expected, Dem enthusiasm will be sky high in Maryland.

Of course it's also possible that Hogan unceremoniously crushes whoever his opponent is by double digits. But he has another big problem that Charlie Baker doesn't: a very large minority vote.

[Rhenna]

Safe R.

[RINO Tom]

If Gov. Larry Hogan is re-elected, as seems likely, he would be the first Republican in sixty years to have won a second term.  The only other Republican governor to have served two consecutive terms is Theodore Roosevelt McKeldin, who served during the Eisenhower years.  

Proud of you, Maryland!

[junior chįmp]

I mean lets be honest...Hogan probably wins this

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I mean lets be honest...Hogan probably wins this

Muh blue wave will reach all levels of electoral politics, Safe D rees.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blue wave or not, moderates like Hogan get elected, just like in CT and RI can go GOP, as well.

[brand_allen]

I still find it amazing that someone can have a 75% approval rating (?!!?), yet be held under 50% in a general election against a potential opponent, and only lead that opponent by 11 points. I get that it's Maryland, but still - 75% even tops Charlie Baker's numbers, no?

[MT Treasurer]

Objectively this race seems likely R, but it also seems like exactly the type of race that everyone assumes is safe early on then causes a shocker on election night. In other words, I can't shake the feeling that Hogan could very well be Hogan'd. Or at least gets a huge scare. He's hovering around 50%, it's still early, and Dems have yet to get a nominee and attempt to consolidate their base. Even if the wave nationwide is not as big as expected, Dem enthusiasm will be sky high in Maryland.

Of course it's also possible that Hogan unceremoniously crushes whoever his opponent is by double digits. But he has another big problem that Charlie Baker doesn't: a very large minority vote.

I agree with all of this, which is why I still think the race is a Tossup. It’s obvious that Hogan is in a much better position than Ehrlich was in 2006, but I’m not feeling confident about the chances of any Republican running statewide in MD this year. Not trusting the polls here, tbh.

[WritOfCertiorari]

If Gov. Larry Hogan is re-elected, as seems likely, he would be the first Republican in sixty years to have won a second term.  The only other Republican governor to have served two consecutive terms is Theodore Roosevelt McKeldin, who served during the Eisenhower years.  

He also has a residence hall named after him at the University of Maryland. Maybe O'Malley will follow suit one day (probably not).

[Deblano]

Blue wave or not, moderates like Hogan get elected, just like in CT and RI can go GOP, as well.

In 2006 (the last Democratic wave election), CT re-elected their Republican with 63% of the vote, and Vermont re-elected their Republican with 56% of the vote.

Hogan can win in 2018 if he plays his cards right.

[IceSpear]

Blue wave or not, moderates like Hogan get elected, just like in CT and RI can go GOP, as well.

In 2006 (the last Democratic wave election), CT re-elected their Republican with 63% of the vote, and Vermont re-elected their Republican with 56% of the vote.

Hogan can win in 2018 if he plays his cards right.

Hogan can win, but it will be harder than in CT/VT due to the very large minority vote.