FL-St. Leo Scott +6

[mds32]

Florida
St. Leo

Scott (R) 40%
Nelson (D) 34%

Can we call this race what it actually is at the moment? A tossup? Morning Consultant solidified this imo with Trump's +5 approval in the state as well.

http://sunshinestatenews.com/story/rick-scott-holds-solid-lead-over-bill-nelson-new-poll

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump does not have a net +5 approval in Fl sorry lol. This is not to say that this race is not competitive though. Scott is running a really great campaign, and Nelson needs to step it up.

[mds32]

Trump does not have a net +5 approval in Fl sorry lol. This is not to say that this race is not competitive though. Scott is running a really great campaign, and Nelson needs to step it up.

That's what morning consultant has, don't take it up with me. We can play this game of believing polls but even if it isn't +5 and it is actually even or just -2 or whatever the point is that Trump isn't going to be the center of the race. Which will only help Scott.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump does not have a net +5 approval in Fl sorry lol. This is not to say that this race is not competitive though. Scott is running a really great campaign, and Nelson needs to step it up.

That's what morning consultant has, don't take it up with me. We can play this game of believing polls but even if it isn't +5 and it is actually even or just -2 or whatever the point is that Trump isn't going to be the center of the race. Which will only help Scott.

True, but I think Trump and the national environment will still have a bigger effect than that article let on.

[Xing]

Is Tennessee also a Toss-Up? Anyway, believe this poll if you like, but I find it harder to believe that 26% are undecided or voting third party in a race where both candidates are very well-known entities in the state. Scott may be up now, but as I said in the other thread, I don't see how his numbers go up from here, other than the national environment getting better for Republicans. I think that if Nelson loses, it's because 2018 wasn't that good of a year for Democrats, not because Rick Scott is a demigod.

[YE]

Why do we keep getting these no name polls just from FL? I feel like without any of these polls, this wouldn't been as competitive as it is right now.

[ON Progressive]

Trump does not have a net +5 approval in Fl sorry lol. This is not to say that this race is not competitive though. Scott is running a really great campaign, and Nelson needs to step it up.

That's what morning consultant has, don't take it up with me. We can play this game of believing polls but even if it isn't +5 and it is actually even or just -2 or whatever the point is that Trump isn't going to be the center of the race. Which will only help Scott.

Uh, in a federal race, Trump approval will matter a lot. If the approval is -2 or +5 in FL is a massive difference, because nearly all Trump disapprovers will not vote for a Republican Senate candidate, no matter who it is.

[ajc0918]

St. Leo's Senate Poll from February 2018:

Rick Scott 42%
Bill Nelson 35%

http://polls.saintleo.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/SAINT-LEO-Poll-_Chart-Poll-Report_Florida-state-politics.pdf

St. Leo is garbage because they let you choose "someone else" in their polls which skew the results. Also note that Scott has spend $17 MILLION since February and  this race is virtually the same.

[BudgieForce]

Florida has lots of garbage pollsters.

[KingSweden]

The “both well known” canard is not a persuasive one seeing as how much turnover the Florida electorate sees.

That being said, I’m perfectly fine with regarding this as a Tossup even though I’m skeptical of some of the pollsters active here.

[henster]

For how well known they are these numbers are pathetic, I think I would take this poll more seriously if it was 50-44 instead of this.

[ON Progressive]

The “both well known” canard is not a persuasive one seeing as how much turnover the Florida electorate sees.

That being said, I’m perfectly fine with regarding this as a Tossup even though I’m skeptical of some of the pollsters active here.

Sure, there's turnover. I highly doubt there's enough that 26% of the population is either voting third party (and the vast majority of those will vote major party) or undecided when it's a race between a multi-term US Senator and a Governor.

[Mr. Reactionary]

In before " GOP winning = Junk Poll!"

[BudgieForce]

In before " GOP winning = Junk Poll!"

Too late. But regardless, the state university pollsters arent very good. Neither are the majority of the local pollsters either. Hell, I'd rate Gravis and Emerson as more trust worthy than St. Leo, FAU and FIU polling put together.  The only quality university pollster I'd put stock in is UNF(and maybe UF).

[heatcharger]

St. Leo poll in December: Scott up 42-32
February: Scott up 42-35
Now: Scott up 40-34

How about 2016? Their final FL poll had Clinton up 52-39.

Extremely high quality pollster we’re looking at here. But you know, keep trying to own the libs with this poll.

[Politician]

Can we get polls out of places besides FL, TN, MO and NV?

Also, can we ban mds from being allowed to input polls?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Scott's definitely ahead now, but I'm not entirely confident that the good will he has on the ground here will sustain itself through the fall.

[President Johnson]

So many trashy Florida senate polls these days? I also don't buy the huge undecided numbers with two very known candidates.

[KingSweden]

The “both well known” canard is not a persuasive one seeing as how much turnover the Florida electorate sees.

That being said, I’m perfectly fine with regarding this as a Tossup even though I’m skeptical of some of the pollsters active here.

Sure, there's turnover. I highly doubt there's enough that 26% of the population is either voting third party (and the vast majority of those will vote major party) or undecided when it's a race between a multi-term US Senator and a Governor.

I think the undecided number is an issue with the poll itself, a valid critique of St Leo’s methodology but wholly separate from my original point.

[brand_allen]

St. Leo poll in December: Scott up 42-32
February: Scott up 42-35
Now: Scott up 40-34

How about 2016? Their final FL poll had Clinton up 52-39.

Extremely high quality pollster we’re looking at here. But you know, keep trying to own the libs with this poll.

Five Thirty Eight gives St. Leo University a letter grade of C- based on an analysis of four of their surveys. That puts them very near the bottom of their list, for what it's worth. Here's the link to their pollster ratings (they were updated last month): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Person Man]

St. Leo poll in December: Scott up 42-32
February: Scott up 42-35
Now: Scott up 40-34

How about 2016? Their final FL poll had Clinton up 52-39.

Extremely high quality pollster we’re looking at here. But you know, keep trying to own the libs with this poll.

Five Thirty Eight gives St. Leo University a letter grade of C- based on an analysis of four of their surveys. That puts them very near the bottom of their list, for what it's worth. Here's the link to their pollster ratings (they were updated last month): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Probably graded lower if there were more polls

[Skye]

Is Tennessee also a Toss-Up? Anyway, believe this poll if you like, but I find it harder to believe that 26% are undecided or voting third party in a race where both candidates are very well-known entities in the state. Scott may be up now, but as I said in the other thread, I don't see how his numbers go up from here, other than the national environment getting better for Republicans. I think that if Nelson loses, it's because 2018 wasn't that good of a year for Democrats, not because Rick Scott is a demigod.

Well, TN isn't a purple state to begin with, so maybe that's why some people are so reluctant to call it a Tossup, especially after the Bob Kerrey and Evan Bayh fiascoes.

Anyway, St. Leo is a bad pollster. We should probably wait for a quality poll on this race.

(It's still a Tossup for me though.)

[IceSpear]

Didn't they say Hillary and Rubio would both win by double digits simultaneously? lol

[KingSweden]

Didn't they say Hillary and Rubio would both win by double digits simultaneously? lol

Yes, which is why they should go in the garbage can

[Progressive Pessimist]

So many trashy Florida senate polls these days? I also don't buy the huge undecided numbers with two very known candidates.

The two most appropriate words to ever be paired together.