N U T part 2: The Presidency of Bernie Sanders and the 2022 midterms

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

North Dakota State Convention Endorses Crapo, Giving Him Their 29 Delegates as "Soft Unpledged" Support
-The Bismarck Tribune, 4/21/24

ACELA PRIMARY

Maryland Democratic Primary (100% in), 96 Delegates
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 49.7%, 48 Delegates ✔
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 48.5%, 46 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 1.8%, 2 Delegates

Maryland Republican Primary (100% in) Proportional, 38 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 50.5%, 19 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 49.5%, 19 Delegates

Delaware Democratic Primary (100% in), 17 Delegates
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 53.4%, 9 Delegates ✔
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 45.0%, 8 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 1.6%

Delaware Republican Primary (100% in) FPTP, 16 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 52.2%, 16 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 47.8%

Pennsylvania Democratic Primary (100% in), 186 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 57.8%, 108 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 40.4%, 75 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 1.8%, 3 Delegates

Pennsylvania Republican Primary (100% in) Proportional, 88 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 56.3%, 50 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 43.7%, 36 Delegates

New York Democratic Primary (100% in), 274 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 67.7%, 186 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 30.1%, 82 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 2.2%, 6 Delegates

New York Republican Primary (100% in) 20% Threshold, Take-All >50%, 95 Delegates
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 55.4%, 95 Delegates ✔
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 44.6%

Connecticut Democratic Primary (100% in), 49 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 60.9%, 30 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 37.4%, 18 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 1.7%, 1 Delegate

Connecticut Republican Primary (100% in) 20% Threshold, Take-All >50%, 28 Delegates
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 52.4%, 28 Delegates ✔
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 47.6%

Rhode Island Democratic Primary (100% in), 24 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 61.8%, 15 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 36.9%, 9 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 1.5%

Rhode Island Republican Primary (100% in) 10% Threshold, 19 Delegates
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 55.8%, 10 Delegates ✔
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 44.2%, 9 Delegates

Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 22 states+DA+MP+PR, 1,543 Delegates
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 16 states, 1,228 Delegates
Mayor Andrew Yang (D-NY): 1 state, 336 Delegates (Endorsed Ocasio-Cortez)
Vice Pres. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 2 states, 283 Delegates (Endorsed Sinema)
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 0 states+AS, 60 Delegates
Sec. of HUD Pete Buttigieg (D-IN): 11 Delegates (Endorsed Sinema)
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA): 1 Delegate (Endorsed Klobuchar, then Sinema)

OCASIO-CORTEZ+315 (↑152)

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 23 states, 1,118 Delegates
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 17 states+MP+PR, 968 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA): 37 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)
Uncommitted: AS+GU, 24 Delegates
Fmr. Vice Pres. Mike Pence (R-IN): 12 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)
Mr. Donald Trump Jr. (R-NY): 3 Delegates (Endorsed Crapo)
Fmr. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX): 0 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)

CRAPO+150 (↓65)

Sinema Drops Out of Democratic Race, but Will Remain on the Ballot in All Remaining Primaries
-CNN, 5/1/24

A Contested RNC is Now a Serious Possibility
-POLITICO, 5/1/24

Our Model: Crapo Falls Just Short of Delegate Majority in 56% of Simulations, Wins in 43%
-FiveThirtyEight, 5/1/24

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Kansas Democratic Primary (100% in), 41 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 65.9%, 27 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 31.7%, 13 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 2.4%, 1 Delegate

Kansas Republican Primary (100% in) 10% Threshold, 40 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 57.6%, 23 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 42.4%, 17 Delegates

Guam Democratic Primary (100% in), 7 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 77.8%, 5 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 17.9%, 1 Delegate
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 11.3%, 1 Delegate

Nebraska Democratic Primary (100% in), 29 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 66.1%, 19 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 31.5%, 9 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 2.4%, 1 Delegate

Nebraska Republican Primary (100% in) FPTP, 36 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 60.9%, 36 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 29.1%

Indiana Democratic Primary (100% in), 82 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 60.9%, 50 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 36.9%, 30 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 2.2%, 2 Delegates

Indiana Republican Primary (100% in) Proportional, 58 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 56.7%, 33 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 43.3%, 25 Delegates

A WV Attorney Now Has More Delegates Than the Gov. of California
-Charleston Gazette, 5/14/24

West Virginia Democratic Primary (100% in), 28 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 60.9%, 17 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 27.5%, 8 Delegates
Att. Paul T. Farrell Jr. (D-WV): 9.0%, 2 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 2.6%, 1 Delegate

West Virginia Republican Primary (100% in) Proportional, 35 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 70.9%, 25 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 19.1%, 10 Delegates

After Months-long Legal Battle, Blank Votes are Counted in MI, Bringing Crapo Below 50%
-Detroit Free Press, 5/15/24

Crooked Judge Awards Haley Delegates in Bid to Stop Crapo
-OANN, 5/15/24

Michigan Republican Primary (100% in) 15% Threshold, Take-All >50%, 73 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 49.97%, 37 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 49.76%, 36 Delegates
BLANK: 0.27%

With the new Michigan results, our simulations show Crapo falling short of a majority 71% of the time.
@natesilver538, 5/16/24

AOC Won't Win on the First Ballot, but That Doesn't Mean She'll Lose.
-Washington Post, 5/17/24

Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 26 states+DA+MP+PR+GU, 1,661 Delegates
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 16 states, 1,289 Delegates
Mayor Andrew Yang (D-NY): 1 state, 336 Delegates (Endorsed Ocasio-Cortez)
Vice Pres. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 2 states, 283 Delegates (Endorsed Sinema)
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 0 states+AS, 66 Delegates
Sec. of HUD Pete Buttigieg (D-IN): 11 Delegates (Endorsed Sinema)
Att. Paul T. Ferrell Jr. (D-WV): 2 Delegates
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA): 1 Delegate (Endorsed Klobuchar, then Sinema)

OCASIO-CORTEZ+372 (↑57)

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 27 states, 1,199 Delegates
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 17 states+MP+PR, 1,056 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA): 37 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)
Uncommitted: AS+GU, 24 Delegates
Fmr. Vice Pres. Mike Pence (R-IN): 12 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)
Mr. Donald Trump Jr. (R-NY): 3 Delegates (Endorsed Crapo)
Fmr. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX): 0 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)

CRAPO+143 (↓7)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Worrying Reports of Right-Wing Militias Near Polling Stations in East Oregon
-CNN, 5/21/24

Crapo Wins State in Upset, Dashing Haley's Hopes
-The Oregonian, 5/21/24

Oregon Democratic Primary (100% in), 61 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 78.7%, 48 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 19.0%, 12 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 2.3%, 1 Delegate

Oregon Republican Primary (100% in) 3.57% Threshold, 28 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 52.2%, 15 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 47.8%, 13 Delegates

Kentucky Democratic Primary (100% in), 54 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 73.6%, 40 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 24.7%, 13 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 1.7%, 1 Delegate

Kentucky Republican Primary (100% in) 5% Threshold, 46 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 64.2%, 30 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 35.8%, 16 Delegates

Montana Democratic Primary (100% in), 19 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 76.6%, 14 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 20.2%, 4 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 3.2%, 1 Delegate

Montana Republican Primary (100% in) FPTP, 27 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 66.2%, 27 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 33.8%

South Dakota Democratic Primary (100% in), 16 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 75.3%, 12 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 22.1%, 4 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 2.6%

South Dakota Republican Primary (100% in) FPTP, 29 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 65.8%, 29 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 34.2%

It's Official: Crapo is the Presumptive Nominee
-FOX News, 6/4/24

New Mexico Democratic Primary (100% in), 34 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 80.4%, 27 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 17.3%, 6 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 2.3%, 1 Delegate

New Mexico Republican Primary (100% in) 15% Threshold, 22 Delegates
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 50.8%, 11 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 49.2%, 11 Delegates

New Jersey Democratic Primary (100% in), 126 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 78.8%, 99 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 19.1%, 24 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 2.1%, 3 Delegates

New Jersey Republican Primary (100% in) FPTP, 49 Delegates
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 53.3%, 49 Delegates ✔
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 46.7%

Washington D.C. Democratic Primary (100% in), 20 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 85.9%, 17 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 11.8%, 2 Delegates
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 2.3%, 1 Delegate

Washington, D.C. Republican Primary (100% in) 15% Threshold, Take-All >50%, 19 Delegates
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 70.7%, 19 Delegates ✔
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 29.3%

Virgin Islands Democratic Primary (100% in), 7 Delegates
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 78.7%, 6 Delegates ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 20.5%, 1 Delegate
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 0.7%

Virgin Islands Republican Caucus (100% in) Proportional, 9 Delegates
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 61.9%, 6 Delegates ✔
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 38.1%, 3 Delegates

1,991 needed to win
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 34 states+DA+MP+GU+VI, 1,924 Delegates
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 15 states, 1,355 Delegates
Mayor Andrew Yang (D-NY): 1 state, 336 Delegates (Endorsed Ocasio-Cortez)
Vice Pres. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 2 states, 283 Delegates (Endorsed Sinema)
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 0 states+AS, 74 Delegates
Sec. of HUD Pete Buttigieg (D-IN): 11 Delegates (Endorsed Sinema)
Att. Paul T. Ferrell Jr. (D-WV): 2 Delegates
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA): 1 Delegate (Endorsed Klobuchar, then Sinema)

OCASIO-CORTEZ+569 (↑197)

1,279 needed to win
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 32 states, 1,314 Delegates✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 20 states+MP+VI 1,167 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA): 37 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)
Uncommitted: AS+GU, 24 Delegates
Fmr. Vice Pres. Mike Pence (R-IN): 12 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)
Mr. Donald Trump Jr. (R-NY): 3 Delegates (Endorsed Crapo)
Fmr. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX): 0 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)

CRAPO+147 (↑4)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

with that, I'm ending Part 2. Over the course of nearly 2 years, it's done. Part 3 will be the 2024 election.