Is Florida turning in to a Tilt D swing state

[Da2017]

...

[dw93]

It'll be swing. On the one hand, a growing minority population will keep it competitive for the Democrats. On the other hand, white boomer/Xer retires will keep it competitive for the GOP.

[Politician]

It will be a major swing state for a while.

Georgia and North Carolina will be turned blue first.

[Person Man]

Our country is ageing and become more diverse. These trends are equal in Florida and is why Florida may not trend at all.

I think how it will trend post-Trump ( after 2021/2025) or even post-post-Trump (after 2025- 2039) will depend on two things-


1) Will Trump be succesful in reducing the rate of change in the population towards diversity?
2) Will the retirement of the Baby Boomers be sustainable or will there be many more people who will not be able to either retire at all or move to retire?

[ON Progressive]

Hasn’t voted to the left of the nation since Carter, so the answer is no.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It will be a major swing state for a while.

Georgia and North Carolina will be turned blue first.

[Skunk]

Florida has been hyped as turning into a Tilt D for a while now. Hasn't happened yet, probably isn't going to happen for a while.

[TDAS04]

No, it’s still a tilt R swing state.

[fluffypanther19]

No, it’s still a tilt R swing state.

yep, florida is a nearly perfectly balanced state, but it will lean ever so slightly to the right for the foreseeable future (assuming there isn't a massive demographic shift)

[Progressive Pessimist]

It will be a major swing state for a while.

Georgia and North Carolina will be turned blue first.

[Del Tachi]

Hasn’t voted to the left of the nation since Carter, so the answer is no.

[henster]

I think it will trending R for awhile actually, baby boomers are going to retiring en masse soon.

[Devils30]

It may, once voters are 55% white instead of the current 62-65% it gets hard for the GOP. On the other hand, it hasn't happened yet and you never know what new trends can happen.

[Person Man]

I think it will trending R for awhile actually, baby boomers are going to retiring en masse soon.

Haven't they since the last 10 years? I give it another 10 years. By then, the youngest boomer turns 65. At that point, the oldest will be almost 85. Another 10 years after that, most of them will be very old and the oldest will be at or near what could be considered the average age people die of unaccelerated sencesence.

It may, once voters are 55% white instead of the current 62-65% it gets hard for the GOP. On the other hand, it hasn't happened yet and you never know what new trends can happen.

Like I said, look more racial make up AND median age.

[Yellowhammer]

No, or at least not until 2028 or so. I expect Florida 2020 to be similar to Florida 2004; it will swing towards Trump. It might even vote to the right of Georgia.

[Xing]

It may start trending D at a glacial pace, but I think it'll be a swing state for a long time to come. If Ohio keeps trending right, it'll probably be the ultimate bellwhether, though I could see Pennsylvania being a bellwhether as well.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

In the near term, Florida trends perhaps slightly D because of its rising minority population. However, there is also the Senior demographic to consider, and here there are two trends moving against each other. On the one hand, GOP leaning Silent Generation retirees start to get replaced by less GOP leaning Baby Boomers, which should mean that Seniors become a bit less strongly Republican. But on the other hand, there are a larger number of Boomers, so even if they may give Republicans a less large vote share, they could give the GOP just as much of a vote margin. Putting all these things together, in the near term, it looks like maybe a slow drift a bit to the left, or maybe just staying as it is.

In the medium term, diversification continues to drive Florida left, but then when Generation X starts to join the retirees, they bring positive memories of Reagan to the voting booth and shift the Senior demographic rightwards. Due to medical advances, Seniors will also be living marginally longer as time goes on, so there are more of them helping to offset the leftward drift caused by diversification. Possibly by this time Republicans might also start doing somewhat better with minorities (on the assumption that they can't do any worse, can they?), which could potentially offset and even reverse any leftward drift.

In the long term, the most important consideration is that the Miami area - the heart of the Democratic base in Florida - starts to go under water. This leads to population loss, many Democratic voters flee to Georgia and other nearby states, which shifts Florida significantly rightwards. One might think that in response to this, the remaining voters in Florida would shift towards the Democratic party because they will care more about the environment and climate change. However, that won't happen because (after it is too late) the GOP starts to take global warming seriously. The reason why Republicans start to finally take it seriously is because Florida is now taking it seriously, and Florida is just too big of an electoral prize to ignore, so the GOP simply has no choice but to take it seriously. So this shift in the GOP's attitude forestalls that.



To review -

1) Diversification drives Florida left.
2) But competing trends among a growing population of Seniors keep things hotly contested and may even entirely offset the effect of rising non-white population.
3) Eventually Miami goes underwater, all the Democrats flee to avoid drowning, and Florida becomes safe R, but loses electoral votes due to the population loss.

[Person Man]

In the near term, Florida trends perhaps slightly D because of its rising minority population. However, there is also the Senior demographic to consider, and here there are two trends moving against each other. On the one hand, GOP leaning Silent Generation retirees start to get replaced by less GOP leaning Baby Boomers, which should mean that Seniors become a bit less strongly Republican. But on the other hand, there are a larger number of Boomers, so even if they may give Republicans a less large vote share, they could give the GOP just as much of a vote margin. Putting all these things together, in the near term, it looks like maybe a slow drift a bit to the left, or maybe just staying as it is.

In the medium term, diversification continues to drive Florida left, but then when Generation X starts to join the retirees, they bring positive memories of Reagan to the voting booth and shift the Senior demographic rightwards. Due to medical advances, Seniors will also be living marginally longer as time goes on, so there are more of them helping to offset the leftward drift caused by diversification. Possibly by this time Republicans might also start doing somewhat better with minorities (on the assumption that they can't do any worse, can they?), which could potentially offset and even reverse any leftward drift.

In the long term, the most important consideration is that the Miami area - the heart of the Democratic base in Florida - starts to go under water. This leads to population loss, many Democratic voters flee to Georgia and other nearby states, which shifts Florida significantly rightwards. One might think that in response to this, the remaining voters in Florida would shift towards the Democratic party because they will care more about the environment and climate change. However, that won't happen because (after it is too late) the GOP starts to take global warming seriously. The reason why Republicans start to finally take it seriously is because Florida is now taking it seriously, and Florida is just too big of an electoral prize to ignore, so the GOP simply has no choice but to take it seriously. So this shift in the GOP's attitude forestalls that.



To review -

1) Diversification drives Florida left.
2) But competing trends among a growing population of Seniors keep things hotly contested and may even entirely offset the effect of rising non-white population.
3) Eventually Miami goes underwater, all the Democrats flee to avoid drowning, and Florida becomes safe R, but loses electoral votes due to the population loss.

They won't just go to Orlando? Which, by then, will probably have a climate like Miami's now.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

They won't just go to Orlando? Which, by then, will probably have a climate like Miami's now.

True, some will go to Orlando, but most will flee further afield, out of state. Like in Hurricane Katrina, most people in New Orleans didn't just go to Baton Rouge.

[Person Man]

They won't just go to Orlando? Which, by then, will probably have a climate like Miami's now.

True, some will go to Orlando, but most will flee further afield, out of state. Like in Hurricane Katrina, most people in New Orleans didn't just go to Baton Rouge.

They eventually came back but I could see a lot folks moving to Puerto Rico because they have higher elevations.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida, isn't the resort like it use to be. Granted, for retired persons, it is a home. More liberals are leaving the Midwest and moving to California, rather than FL.

[Person Man]

Florida, isn't the resort like it use to be. Granted, for retired persons, it is a home. More liberals are leaving the Midwest and moving to California, rather than FL.

There is that price difference.

[Skill and Chance]

If anything, it could be going right.  Polled Trump approvals in FL are way higher than in other swing states, and sometimes on par with Trump's shakier Republican base states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why Adam Putnam and Scott are leading

[Person Man]

Although who knows. This time in Bush's presidency, Colorado, though it had a lot of popular liberal views, went Republican by 9 points, had two Republican senators and a 2-5 R delegation and total control state Government. In just a few years that feel apart as institutional changes in the parties helped mobilize different voters. Maybe with better leadership, Democrats can do well in Florida. The votes for a strong D coalition are there at least on paper but the FL GOP has just these amazing social skills and can get a lot of partisan and demographic crossovers.