WI Rep Primary-AV: Nicholson +2

[Predictor]

Nicholson - 32%
Vukmir - 30%

500 LV, +/- 4.4%, conducted May 29-31

https://leahvukmir.com/post-convention-poll-shows-leah-momentum-moves-statistical-tie/

This is a Vukmir internal. Other interesting things to note:

• Nicholson has higher name recognition (by 7%)
• Nicholson has higher favorable rating (by 3%)

[Politician]

Still Safe D.

[Xing]

Nicholson probably wins the primary, but he’s not beating Baldwin in this environment.

[ON Progressive]

Nicholson probably wins the primary, but he’s not beating Baldwin in this environment.

[UWS]

Nicholson probably wins the primary, but he’s not beating Baldwin in this environment.

Even with low approval ratings that gave her 40 % approve?

But on the other hand, it's sure that Trump's tariffs could play a role in the race.

[ON Progressive]

Nicholson probably wins the primary, but he’s not beating Baldwin in this environment.

Even with low approval ratings that gave her 40 % approve?

But on the other hand, it's sure that Trump's tariffs could play a role in the race.

1) Her approval is closer to 50% than 40%, and net approval matters more. Her net approval is positive.
2) Both Nicholson and Vukmir are C list candidates at best
3) Wisconsin only voted Trump marginally, and so she will not even have to outperform Clinton much at all (she will outperform Clinton by a lot)

[Lamda]

Nicholson probably wins the primary, but he’s not beating Baldwin in this environment.

Even with low approval ratings that gave her 40 % approve?

But on the other hand, it's sure that Trump's tariffs could play a role in the race.

Trump's traffis didn't helped Rick Saccone to dafeat Conor Lamb.

[UWS]

Nicholson probably wins the primary, but he’s not beating Baldwin in this environment.

Even with low approval ratings that gave her 40 % approve?

But on the other hand, it's sure that Trump's tariffs could play a role in the race.

Trump's traffis didn't helped Rick Saccone to dafeat Conor Lamb.

No I said the tariffs could help Baldwin. That's what I meant.

[Maxwell]

lol Nicholson's lead is shrinking rapidly. So much for the star recruit!

[ElectionsGuy]

Both these candidates are pretty awful. Baldwin is lucky.

[Gass3268]

Both these candidates are pretty awful. Baldwin is lucky.

Do plan for voting for either in the primary?

[Politician]

Both these candidates are pretty awful. Baldwin is lucky.

[ElectionsGuy]

Both these candidates are pretty awful. Baldwin is lucky.

Do plan for voting for either in the primary?

I'm leaning Vukmir at the moment but it will be more of a participatory vote than anything. I'll have to watch the debates eventually.

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans would have been better off sacrificing the Governor's mansion and getting Walker to run here (besides Kleefisch probably wouldn't have been that bad a recruit for Governor).

[TJ in Oregon]

I'm starting to root for Nicholson. Vukmir has sacrificial lamb party hack written all over her. Not saying Nicholson is the perfect candidate, but it's at least plausible he could establish some broader appeal that's needed to win in a hostile environment. I don't see Vukmir winning any other way besides riding a favorable statewide environment.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nicholson probably wins the primary, but he’s not beating Baldwin in this environment.

Even with low approval ratings that gave her 40 % approve?

But on the other hand, it's sure that Trump's tariffs could play a role in the race.

Trump's traffis didn't helped Rick Saccone to dafeat Conor Lamb.

No I said the tariffs could help Baldwin. That's what I meant.

We know. But just to show how ineffective Trump's tarrif ploy is he brought up the PA12 race. Exit polls showed that the tariffs only influenced 2% of voters in the special.

[mcmikk]

I'm starting to root for Nicholson. Vukmir has sacrificial lamb party hack written all over her. Not saying Nicholson is the perfect candidate, but it's at least plausible he could establish some broader appeal that's needed to win in a hostile environment. I don't see Vukmir winning any other way besides riding a favorable statewide environment.

Somewhat agreed. But I'm rooting for Vukmir for that reason

She comes off as much more snide and unlikable than Nicholson does. I just think Nicholson is a clown, but I really hate Vukmir, so I'm hoping she wins the primary(I think she will) so she can get smacked by Baldwin in November.

[redjohn]

I'm starting to root for Nicholson. Vukmir has sacrificial lamb party hack written all over her. Not saying Nicholson is the perfect candidate, but it's at least plausible he could establish some broader appeal that's needed to win in a hostile environment. I don't see Vukmir winning any other way besides riding a favorable statewide environment.

Somewhat agreed. But I'm rooting for Vukmir for that reason

She comes off as much more snide and unlikable than Nicholson does. I just think Nicholson is a clown, but I really hate Vukmir, so I'm hoping she wins the primary(I think she will) so she can get smacked by Baldwin in November.

Exactly. Reaaaaally hoping Vukmir wins the primary.

[Senator Incitatus]

I'm starting to root for Nicholson. Vukmir has sacrificial lamb party hack written all over her. Not saying Nicholson is the perfect candidate, but it's at least plausible he could establish some broader appeal that's needed to win in a hostile environment. I don't see Vukmir winning any other way besides riding a favorable statewide environment.

Somewhat agreed. But I'm rooting for Vukmir for that reason

She comes off as much more snide and unlikable than Nicholson does. I just think Nicholson is a clown, but I really hate Vukmir, so I'm hoping she wins the primary(I think she will) so she can get smacked by Baldwin in November.

Exactly. Reaaaaally hoping Vukmir wins the primary.

This continues to be the most garbage line of reasoning in electoral politics and is actively making the world a worse place.

[ON Progressive]

I'm starting to root for Nicholson. Vukmir has sacrificial lamb party hack written all over her. Not saying Nicholson is the perfect candidate, but it's at least plausible he could establish some broader appeal that's needed to win in a hostile environment. I don't see Vukmir winning any other way besides riding a favorable statewide environment.

Somewhat agreed. But I'm rooting for Vukmir for that reason

She comes off as much more snide and unlikable than Nicholson does. I just think Nicholson is a clown, but I really hate Vukmir, so I'm hoping she wins the primary(I think she will) so she can get smacked by Baldwin in November.

Exactly. Reaaaaally hoping Vukmir wins the primary.

This continues to be the most garbage line of reasoning in electoral politics and is actively making the world a worse place.

It's perfectly fine reasoning. A good way to win elections is having your opponent's candidate be absolute trash. It also helps with downballot races thanks to coattails.

And FWIW, I don't particularly care who wins the R primary since both are going to lose by double digits. It's just Nicholson would lose by 10 or something and Vukmir loses by 15+.