Day 38: Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

Delaware County Dems are doing VERY well as of late.  Curt Weldon's seat when retired will highly likely have a Democrat.  Even your boy Rick Santorum was shocked at well Delaware Co. is doing.

But the big question is: Who do you guys have down there? Don't expect Weldon to leave anytime soon, Flyers. The guy has some major seniority. If he stays in longer than two more terms, the GOP really won't have to worry because of redistricting. If PA 7 really becomes a problem, they'll find a way to fix it.

If the Democrats were serious, they would go with State Rep. Greg Vitali.  Oh and it's good of you to admit you have to win with gerrymandering, but BRTD is right- you need the governorship!  Weldon isn't no spring chicken either and I think he'll leave by 2010 or 2012 and possibly run for Senate. 

Uh...no. I never said we need gerrymandering to win. I said if we ever found ourselves in serious trouble.

Weldon isn't running for Senate either. You just don't get the seniority he has in the House.

[Keystone Phil]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

[Smash255]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

[Jake]

"All politics is local" I believe is Al's favorite quote. That applies to Weldon's seat most certainly. Weldon is more or less safe, at least as safe as most Congressmen are.

[Keystone Phil]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

I told you I misread the chances of victory. Yes, Delco is Dem in a 50/50 election. Saying that Weldon would face trouble against Vitali is foolish. Delco is not trending that much Dem.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"All politics is local" I believe is Al's favorite quote.

Indeed it is

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True. Like I said earlier, before Weldon first won in the early '80's the district was held by a Democrat (who IIRC first won in '74; the Watergate-Backlash midterms).
PA voters seem to ticket split more than anywhere north of the Mason-Dixon line, btw. Compare all the statewide races in 2004...

[Smash255]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

I told you I misread the chances of victory. Yes, Delco is Dem in a 50/50 election. Saying that Weldon would face trouble against Vitali is foolish. Delco is not trending that much Dem.

Yes you mentioned you misread the calculations, but even after that  you went on to say that the 90% chance # was still to high, which is just silly.

I agree that weldon against Vitali, weldon shouldn't have much of a problem.  Point I was making was about your insane comment that in a 50/50 election saying Delaware  county has a 90% chance mis a bit too high.

Also as far as how much Delaware has trended to the Dems..

In 1988 Delaware County was 13.3% more GOP than the national average
In 1992 Delaware County was 4.6% more GOP than the national avearge
In 1996 Delaware county was 1.5% more dem than the national average
in 2000 Delaware County was 11.2% more Dem than the national average
in 2004 Delawrae County was 17.5% more Dem than the national average

Phil, and you don't think thats a pretty strong Dem shift??

[Jake]

That's very true. I know quite a few Kerry/Specter people and handful of Bush/Hoeffel voters. It becomes even more apparent when you look at state officer results (ie Casey in 2004).

[TeePee4Prez]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

I told you I misread the chances of victory. Yes, Delco is Dem in a 50/50 election. Saying that Weldon would face trouble against Vitali is foolish. Delco is not trending that much Dem.

I realize PA 7 is not MA 7, but it has a lot of similarities with NY 3 and Pete King.  Problem is the Democrats are just beginning to organize in Delco and still have to catch up with Montgomery County, PA and Nassau, NY.  Also, Weldon has slightly more seniority than King which does not help us.  All I'm saying is Weldon is safe for now, but it is plausible to think that in a Dem landslide and a good candidate he is definitely vulnerable.  Remember, this area voted for the liberal Bob Edgar in the late 1970s and early 1980s when even NE Philly had a conservative Republican in Charlie Dougherty.  

[Keystone Phil]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

I told you I misread the chances of victory. Yes, Delco is Dem in a 50/50 election. Saying that Weldon would face trouble against Vitali is foolish. Delco is not trending that much Dem.

Yes you mentioned you misread the calculations, but even after that  you went on to say that the 90% chance # was still to high, which is just silly.

Uh...ok.

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Not on the local/Congressional level and that's what we're talking about with Weldon, genius.

[Keystone Phil]

 All I'm saying is Weldon is safe for now, but it is plausible to think that in a Dem landslide and a good candidate he is definitely vulnerable.  

Here's what you would need:

1) It would need to be in a Presidential election year where the national GOP is falling apart. That's not happening in '08.

2) A strong Dem candidate (not just good).

3) Some scandal for Weldon.

[Jake]

Results for Weldon since 1992

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 196,556 
 Paul Scoles, Democrat 134,932 
 David Jahn, Libertarian 3,039 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 146,296 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 75,055 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 172,569 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 93,687 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 119,491 
 Martin J. D’Urso, Democrat 46,920

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 165,087 
 John F. Innelli, Democrat 79,875 
 John Pronchik, Natural Law 1,688 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 137,480 
 Sara Nichols, Democrat 59,845

7. Frank Daly, Democrat 91,623 
 Curt Weldon, Republican 180,648 
 William Alan Hickman, Natural Law 1,627 

Obviously, a mark of somebody about to lose re-election

[Smash255]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

I told you I misread the chances of victory. Yes, Delco is Dem in a 50/50 election. Saying that Weldon would face trouble against Vitali is foolish. Delco is not trending that much Dem.

Yes you mentioned you misread the calculations, but even after that  you went on to say that the 90% chance # was still to high, which is just silly.

Uh...ok.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not on the local/Congressional level and that's what we're talking about with Weldon, genius.

However, a general shift is not unlikely on the local level, and it is possible a strong candidate could possibly pose problems for Weldon.  I think Flyers hit it on the head when he made the comparison to Peter King NY-03 (my congressman).  King & Weldon are safe, but could possibly face a tough race if they face a tough race.  I would say King would clearly be more vulnerable than Weldon.  Due to a more organized shift here & so far & a VERY STRONG possible opponent in Nassau county Executive Tom Suozzi (who would wipe the floor with King).  Now chances are even a strong Weldon opponent won't be nearly as a challenege to Weldon as Suozzi would to King, but point is their are similarities in the way Delco is compared to Long Island.  how its trended Dem, etc while Nassau & Montco Dems are more organized than Delco dems their is the possibilty that Delco dems could become a bit more organized & stronger on the local level (similar to how Monctco & Nassau are now).  Bottom line Weldon is pretty much safe, but it isn't out of the question that Delco dems could become more organized (similar to how Nassau Dems & Montco Dems are) and as a result a strong candidate could emerge that could give Weldon a challenge.

 Now  again it is very unlikely that weldon could face a challenge as hard as King would if Suozzi ran for his seat, but it isn't out of the question that he could potentially face a tough race down the road if delco follows the lead other similar suburban areas have had (Montco & Nassau) & for the Dems become stronger on the local level as well

[TeePee4Prez]

Results for Weldon since 1992

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 196,556 
 Paul Scoles, Democrat 134,932 
 David Jahn, Libertarian 3,039 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 146,296 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 75,055 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 172,569 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 93,687 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 119,491 
 Martin J. D’Urso, Democrat 46,920

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 165,087 
 John F. Innelli, Democrat 79,875 
 John Pronchik, Natural Law 1,688 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 137,480 
 Sara Nichols, Democrat 59,845

7. Frank Daly, Democrat 91,623 
 Curt Weldon, Republican 180,648 
 William Alan Hickman, Natural Law 1,627 

Obviously, a mark of somebody about to lose re-election

Did you read my post genius?  You know the part that says "given a strong candidate?"  Paul Scoles is gay and has AIDS (not kidding) and still had a decent showing against Weldon.  Vitali would cut that margin significantly and is an elected State Rep in Delaware County.  Not saying he'd win, but in a Presidential year and either a scandal or GOP collapse, it is very possible he could beat Weldon.

[Smash255]

Results for Weldon since 1992

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 196,556 
 Paul Scoles, Democrat 134,932 
 David Jahn, Libertarian 3,039 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 146,296 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 75,055 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 172,569 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 93,687 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 119,491 
 Martin J. D’Urso, Democrat 46,920

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 165,087 
 John F. Innelli, Democrat 79,875 
 John Pronchik, Natural Law 1,688 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 137,480 
 Sara Nichols, Democrat 59,845

7. Frank Daly, Democrat 91,623 
 Curt Weldon, Republican 180,648 
 William Alan Hickman, Natural Law 1,627 

Obviously, a mark of somebody about to lose re-election

I think we have already established its unlikely.  Point I think myslf & Flyers were trying to make is it  is possible (due to its hard left shift on the national level) for the Delco Dems to get more organized much the way MontCo Dems are & Nassau County Dems are, aand for a strong Dem to emerge.  still unlikely that Weldon would lose, but he could wind up facing a tough race down the line if the above mentioned happens.

Weldon has won in landslides, but that doesn't mean a more organized Delco Dems with a strong opponent couldn't make it a tough race, not saying he will lose, but a strong opponent & the seat is not safe anymore and while he would still probably win he would have a tough race.   My congressman Peter King has won by landslides, but Suozzi runs, not only does King have a tough race, he loses period.  

[Jake]

Okay, how will Viteli cut the margin from 59-40 to 50-50? How will he magicly maintain the absurd turnout levels in SE PA?

[TeePee4Prez]

Okay, how will Viteli cut the margin from 59-40 to 50-50? How will he magicly maintain the absurd turnout levels in SE PA?

Even with the Weldon results the Dems have improved dramatically in that area plus they never ran serious candidates.  If an non-serious, underfunded Dem is getting 40% or above, flags suggesting a pickup definitely fly.

[Keystone Phil]

Okay, how will Viteli cut the margin from 59-40 to 50-50? How will he magicly maintain the absurd turnout levels in SE PA?

Even with the Weldon results the Dems have improved dramatically in that area plus they never ran serious candidates.  If an non-serious, underfunded Dem is getting 40% or above, flags suggesting a pickup definitely fly.

And why do you think he got to 40%, Flyers? Is it really local improvement or was it the incredible turnout due to the Presidential race? Before last year, Weldon was always around 65%. Get real, Flyers.

[TeePee4Prez]

Okay, how will Viteli cut the margin from 59-40 to 50-50? How will he magicly maintain the absurd turnout levels in SE PA?

Even with the Weldon results the Dems have improved dramatically in that area plus they never ran serious candidates.  If an non-serious, underfunded Dem is getting 40% or above, flags suggesting a pickup definitely fly.

And why do you think he got to 40%, Flyers? Is it really local improvement or was it the incredible turnout due to the Presidential race? Before last year, Weldon was always around 65%. Get real, Flyers.

I know the Pres races add to the totals, but they Dems have steadily done better even at the local level and are flying at the Presidential.

[Keystone Phil]

I know the Pres races add to the totals, but they Dems have steadily done better even at the local level and are flying at the Presidential.

In which races have they really improved on the local level?

[Bacon King]

Wow, 5 pages in two days... there are too many Pennsylvanians on this site.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wow, 5 pages in two days... there are too many Pennsylvanians on this site.

You cannot sh*te for 'em . I think the Forum Pennyslvaniniates are a pretty good bunch

Dave