Fallout from Trump tariffs

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So tonight is the beginning of the destruction of Trump and the Republican Party.

Not following.

China's tariffs are targeting red states.

[BudgieForce]

So tonight is the beginning of the destruction of Trump and the Republican Party.

Not following.

China's tariffs are targeting red states.

Yeah, but I think your overselling the economic damage. At least right now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So tonight is the beginning of the destruction of Trump and the Republican Party.

Not following.

China's tariffs are targeting red states.

Yeah, but I think your overselling the economic damage. At least right now.

Well maybe I overestimated the the damage to the GOP long term, but this definitely will hurt Trump a lot.

[longtimelurker]

And the stock market is up the past two days.  We all have heard about all the stores that are closing but unemployment is at a record low and companies can't find people to work.  So, when exactly does the **** hit the fan?  Ever?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

And the stock market is up the past two days.  We all have heard about all the stores that are closing but unemployment is at a record low and companies can't find people to work.  So, when exactly does the **** hit the fan?  Ever?

There is not a single economist from either side of the aisle that believes the US will come out of this trade war unscathed. The jobs report released this morning showed the unemployment rate ticking up to 4%.

And didn't your mother ever tell you that stock markets are not accurate indicators of economic growth?

[GeorgiaModerate]

And the stock market is up the past two days.  We all have heard about all the stores that are closing but unemployment is at a record low and companies can't find people to work.  So, when exactly does the **** hit the fan?  Ever?

There is not a single economist from either side of the aisle that believes the US will come out of this trade war unscathed. The jobs report released this morning showed the unemployment rate ticking up to 4%.

And didn't your mother ever tell you that stock markets are not accurate indicators of economic growth?

The tick up to 4% was caused by more people joining the labor force.  It's not an unhealthy sign.

538 has a nice visual representation of the current labor market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/jobs-report-growth-unemployment/.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

And the stock market is up the past two days.  We all have heard about all the stores that are closing but unemployment is at a record low and companies can't find people to work.  So, when exactly does the **** hit the fan?  Ever?

There is not a single economist from either side of the aisle that believes the US will come out of this trade war unscathed. The jobs report released this morning showed the unemployment rate ticking up to 4%.

And didn't your mother ever tell you that stock markets are not accurate indicators of economic growth?

The tick up to 4% was caused by more people joining the labor force.  It's not an unhealthy sign.

538 has a nice visual representation of the current labor market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/jobs-report-growth-unemployment/.

Fair enough, my first point still stands.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The tariffs aren't designed to help everyone, only those who are in key swing states.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The tariffs aren't designed to help everyone, only those who are in key swing states.

So because Trump won Iowa and Ohio in one election, they're now safe R?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The tariffs aren't designed to help everyone, only those who are in key swing states.

So because Trump won Iowa and Ohio in one election, they're now safe R?

The problem with Donnelly's point is that U.S. tariffs might be designed to help certain states, but that strategy works only if there's no retaliation.  Other countries are targeting their tariffs specifically to hurt Trump-supporting regions; for example, U.S. soybean prices have cratered, and the 30 largest soybean-producing CDs all voted for Trump.  It's folly to think that the U.S. could impose tariffs and not provoke retaliation.

[longtimelurker]

And the stock market is up the past two days.  We all have heard about all the stores that are closing but unemployment is at a record low and companies can't find people to work.  So, when exactly does the **** hit the fan?  Ever?

There is not a single economist from either side of the aisle that believes the US will come out of this trade war unscathed. The jobs report released this morning showed the unemployment rate ticking up to 4%.

And didn't your mother ever tell you that stock markets are not accurate indicators of economic growth?

Touche.  But what my mother knew about the stock market would fit inside Trump's soul, so no.

[ajc0918]

Soybean prices tumbling? My thoughts and prayers are with the soybean farmers who voted for this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Soybean prices tumbling? My thoughts and prayers are with the soybean farmers who voted for this upon themselves.

U.S. Soybean Prices Crumble as Trade War Sparks Brazil Rally

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[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Soybean prices tumbling? My thoughts and prayers are with the soybean farmers who voted for this upon themselves.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

And the stock market is up the past two days.  We all have heard about all the stores that are closing but unemployment is at a record low and companies can't find people to work.  So, when exactly does the **** hit the fan?  Ever?

I think there's a quote about the market/economy and irrationality...

But if I had to bet... December. A general slowdown starts to manifest in low holiday sales, then controlled panic starts. And that's if the GOP is lucky.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So tonight is the beginning of the destruction of Trump and the Republican Party.

How many times has this been said in the last 3 years?

It is never happening.

[136or142]

And the stock market is up the past two days.  We all have heard about all the stores that are closing but unemployment is at a record low and companies can't find people to work.  So, when exactly does the **** hit the fan?  Ever?

This is regarded as a truism in economics: the short term impacts of an event (like tariffs) are always overstated, the long term impacts are always understated.  This is because there are always time lags. So what happens is nothing happens in the short term and the supporters of the policy claim the other side was just 'crying wolf' but it's really nothing more than the proponents don't understand the time lag effect and nor do most of the half wits working in the media.

In this case, the time lags may be caused by either the products having already been paid for on the futures markets (although that wouldn't make any difference as the tariff is a direct tax over and above the future market price) or, more likely that it takes time for purchasers to shift to suppliers who aren't subject to the tariffs.  In other cases, businesses (especially exporters) that will now have to pay higher input prices keep up production for various reasons: they hope to wait Trump out and maintain market share, so they'll eat the losses, it costs money to wind down operations...

I think, for those who were paying attention, we clearly saw this with Brexit, and it hasn't even been implemented yet.

[ProudModerate2]

Soybean prices tumbling? My thoughts and prayers are with the soybean farmers who voted for this upon themselves.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Soybean prices tumbling? My thoughts and prayers are with the soybean farmers who voted for this upon themselves.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Soybean prices tumbling? My thoughts and prayers are with the soybean farmers who voted for this upon themselves.

My thoughts are how far out to buy options so as to be reasonably safe in assuming that the trade war will have ended by then. (It's not as if I can keep Trump from being crazy while he's President.)

[Badger]

An import tax is just a tariff by another name. Why in hell would calling it an import tax be more diplomatic?

The source of this theory is one of the last people to think that Trump is still somehow playing 4-D chess rather than acting on every whim and shiny object that passes through his narcissism addled Id.

[GeorgiaModerate]

BMW to shift some SUV production to China as a result of tariffs

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Could someone remind me again how this is supposed to help the U.S. economy?

[pbrower2a]

Slogan for sgurts for farmers:

I voted for Trump, and all I got was lower crop prices and higher fuel prices,

[Progressive Pessimist]

Slogan for sgurts for farmers:

I voted for Trump, and all I got was lower crop prices and higher fuel prices,

But the "libtards" are triggered, so it's all worth it.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

BMW to shift some SUV production to China as a result of tariffs

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Could someone remind me again how this is supposed to help the U.S. economy?

Perhaps it isn't?

Trump Is Fulfilling Russia’s Dream of Splitting the Western Alliance

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Trump’s tariff bombshell could ignite full-blown trade war & Russia could be the winner

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Will Trump Be Meeting With His Counterpart — Or His Handler?

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I obviously have no way of knowing whether or not Trump is a Russian puppet.

But he sure acts like one.