Dumbass gubernatorial ratings from pundits
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Author Topic: Dumbass gubernatorial ratings from pundits  (Read 1707 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM »
Colorado is rated a "tossup" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Georgia is rated "Safe R" by Charlie Cook.

Illinois is rated a "tossup" by Charlie Cook.

Kansas is rated "Likely R" by Cook, Inside, and Daily Kos.

Massachusetts is rated "Likely R" by Cook and RCP.

Minnesota is rated a "tossup" by Sabato.

Oklahoma is rated "Safe R" by Cook.

Oregon is rated "Likely D" by Sabato, Inside, Cook and Daily Kos.

Pennsylvania is rated "Lean D" by Inside and Cook.

Wisconsin is rated "Lean R" by everyone.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2018, 07:09:45 AM »
I'm biased, but WI Lean R is #1 on my list.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2018, 12:50:00 PM »
I always get a laugh out of ratings that have Colorado as Toss-Up while Wisconsin is Lean R.
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« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2018, 12:52:41 PM »
Quote from: MassGuy on June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM
Colorado is rated a "tossup" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Georgia is rated "Safe R" by Charlie Cook.

Illinois is rated a "tossup" by Charlie Cook.

Kansas is rated "Likely R" by Cook, Inside, and Daily Kos.

Massachusetts is rated "Likely R" by Cook and RCP.

Minnesota is rated a "tossup" by Sabato.

Oklahoma is rated "Safe R" by Cook.

Oregon is rated "Likely D" by Sabato, Inside, Cook and Daily Kos.

Pennsylvania is rated "Lean D" by Inside and Cook.

Wisconsin is rated "Lean R" by everyone.


The race will be within single digits so Likely D is the correct rating



Safe rating should only be to races where winner will win by double digits
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2018, 12:53:10 PM »
Illinois is Safe D and WI is tilting D
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Badger
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« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2018, 01:15:38 PM »
Quote from: MassGuy on June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM
Colorado is rated a "tossup" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Georgia is rated "Safe R" by Charlie Cook.

Illinois is rated a "tossup" by Charlie Cook.

Kansas is rated "Likely R" by Cook, Inside, and Daily Kos.

Massachusetts is rated "Likely R" by Cook and RCP.

Minnesota is rated a "tossup" by Sabato.

Oklahoma is rated "Safe R" by Cook.

Oregon is rated "Likely D" by Sabato, Inside, Cook and Daily Kos.

Pennsylvania is rated "Lean D" by Inside and Cook.

Wisconsin is rated "Lean R" by everyone.

That seems correct for MA and OR. GA and WI are  perhaps only one degree off.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2018, 01:18:56 PM »
GA, KS and OK are likely GOP
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Solid4096
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« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2018, 01:42:12 PM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on June 04, 2018, 12:52:41 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM
Colorado is rated a "tossup" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Georgia is rated "Safe R" by Charlie Cook.

Illinois is rated a "tossup" by Charlie Cook.

Kansas is rated "Likely R" by Cook, Inside, and Daily Kos.

Massachusetts is rated "Likely R" by Cook and RCP.

Minnesota is rated a "tossup" by Sabato.

Oklahoma is rated "Safe R" by Cook.

Oregon is rated "Likely D" by Sabato, Inside, Cook and Daily Kos.

Pennsylvania is rated "Lean D" by Inside and Cook.

Wisconsin is rated "Lean R" by everyone.


The race will be within single digits so Likely D is the correct rating



Safe rating should only be to races where winner will win by double digits

I guarantee you that Kate Brown will win by double digits.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2018, 02:07:55 PM »
RCP rates Texas as safe Republican while Massachusetts only likely. Also ridiculous they have Wisconsin as lean Republican.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2018, 02:09:22 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on June 04, 2018, 02:07:55 PM
RCP rates Texas as safe Republican while Massachusetts only likely. Also ridiculous they have Wisconsin as lean Republican.
Because it is.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2018, 02:16:19 PM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on June 04, 2018, 12:52:41 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM
Colorado is rated a "tossup" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Georgia is rated "Safe R" by Charlie Cook.

Illinois is rated a "tossup" by Charlie Cook.

Kansas is rated "Likely R" by Cook, Inside, and Daily Kos.

Massachusetts is rated "Likely R" by Cook and RCP.

Minnesota is rated a "tossup" by Sabato.

Oklahoma is rated "Safe R" by Cook.

Oregon is rated "Likely D" by Sabato, Inside, Cook and Daily Kos.

Pennsylvania is rated "Lean D" by Inside and Cook.

Wisconsin is rated "Lean R" by everyone.


The race will be within single digits so Likely D is the correct rating



Safe rating should only be to races where winner will win by double digits

It'll probably be high single digits, but I don't think a low double digit win is impossible. And I don't think safe has to mean a double digit win, simply that there's no realistic chance of the other party winning, which I think is appropriate for Oregon this year.
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wxtransit
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« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2018, 02:17:21 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on June 04, 2018, 02:07:55 PM
RCP rates Texas as safe Republican while Massachusetts only likely. Also ridiculous they have Wisconsin as lean Republican.

Texas is Safe Republican, though. Abbott's a fairly popular and uncontroversial governor, so barring a #metoo moment or some previously unknown scandal, I really don't see Valdez winning.
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Computer89
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« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2018, 02:40:30 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on June 04, 2018, 01:42:12 PM
Quote from: Old School Republican on June 04, 2018, 12:52:41 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM
Colorado is rated a "tossup" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Georgia is rated "Safe R" by Charlie Cook.

Illinois is rated a "tossup" by Charlie Cook.

Kansas is rated "Likely R" by Cook, Inside, and Daily Kos.

Massachusetts is rated "Likely R" by Cook and RCP.

Minnesota is rated a "tossup" by Sabato.

Oklahoma is rated "Safe R" by Cook.

Oregon is rated "Likely D" by Sabato, Inside, Cook and Daily Kos.

Pennsylvania is rated "Lean D" by Inside and Cook.

Wisconsin is rated "Lean R" by everyone.


The race will be within single digits so Likely D is the correct rating



Safe rating should only be to races where winner will win by double digits

I guarantee you that Kate Brown will win by double digits.


That didn’t even happen in 2006
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Solid4096
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« Reply #13 on: June 04, 2018, 04:14:56 PM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on June 04, 2018, 02:40:30 PM
Quote from: Solid4096 on June 04, 2018, 01:42:12 PM
Quote from: Old School Republican on June 04, 2018, 12:52:41 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM
Colorado is rated a "tossup" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Georgia is rated "Safe R" by Charlie Cook.

Illinois is rated a "tossup" by Charlie Cook.

Kansas is rated "Likely R" by Cook, Inside, and Daily Kos.

Massachusetts is rated "Likely R" by Cook and RCP.

Minnesota is rated a "tossup" by Sabato.

Oklahoma is rated "Safe R" by Cook.

Oregon is rated "Likely D" by Sabato, Inside, Cook and Daily Kos.

Pennsylvania is rated "Lean D" by Inside and Cook.

Wisconsin is rated "Lean R" by everyone.


The race will be within single digits so Likely D is the correct rating



Safe rating should only be to races where winner will win by double digits

I guarantee you that Kate Brown will win by double digits.


That didn’t even happen in 2006

Oregon has trended substantially to the left since 2006, and Kate Brown won by 7 in 2016 under a much less favorable national environment, and she was an unelected governor back then. There is no reason to believe that she will not win by double digits in 2018.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #14 on: June 04, 2018, 05:05:30 PM »
Anti-intellectualism is spreading like wildfire among young liberals. Disgusting to watch.
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Computer89
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« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2018, 05:06:50 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on June 04, 2018, 04:14:56 PM
Quote from: Old School Republican on June 04, 2018, 02:40:30 PM
Quote from: Solid4096 on June 04, 2018, 01:42:12 PM
Quote from: Old School Republican on June 04, 2018, 12:52:41 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM
Colorado is rated a "tossup" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Georgia is rated "Safe R" by Charlie Cook.

Illinois is rated a "tossup" by Charlie Cook.

Kansas is rated "Likely R" by Cook, Inside, and Daily Kos.

Massachusetts is rated "Likely R" by Cook and RCP.

Minnesota is rated a "tossup" by Sabato.

Oklahoma is rated "Safe R" by Cook.

Oregon is rated "Likely D" by Sabato, Inside, Cook and Daily Kos.

Pennsylvania is rated "Lean D" by Inside and Cook.

Wisconsin is rated "Lean R" by everyone.


The race will be within single digits so Likely D is the correct rating



Safe rating should only be to races where winner will win by double digits

I guarantee you that Kate Brown will win by double digits.


That didn’t even happen in 2006

Oregon has trended substantially to the left since 2006, and Kate Brown won by 7 in 2016 under a much less favorable national environment, and she was an unelected governor back then. There is no reason to believe that she will not win by double digits in 2018.


LOL no
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Computer89
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« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2018, 05:08:36 PM »
Quote from: Technocracy Timmy on June 04, 2018, 04:53:27 PM
Quote from: Solid4096 on June 04, 2018, 04:14:56 PM
Oregon has trended substantially to the left since 2006

Substantially?

It trended 2.3 points Dem from 2004-2016 and 0.1 points Republican from 2008-2016.


Or did it just become way more Dem friendly statewide?

It hasnt trended Democratic since 2006


Also Republicans win in 2010 if not for a third party

In 2014 they did pretty good despite running a pretty bad campaign and would have won if Kitzhaber coverup was discovered before he won
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PAK Man
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« Reply #17 on: June 04, 2018, 09:51:24 PM »
Quote from: MassGuy on June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM
Kansas is rated "Likely R" by Cook, Inside, and Daily Kos.

Oregon is rated "Likely D" by Sabato, Inside, Cook and Daily Kos.

Wisconsin is rated "Lean R" by everyone.

Kansas is probably because of Orman's presence. He'll likely take more votes away from Dems.

Oregon is because of Brown's less-than-impressive victory margin in 2016.

Wisconsin I agree with. No clear frontrunner on the Democratic side, plus Walker has survived when he wasn't supposed to before. There's really no indication that he's in danger of losing.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2018, 06:00:19 AM »
Walker won't survive.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #19 on: June 05, 2018, 06:09:10 AM »
Quote from: PAK Man on June 04, 2018, 09:51:24 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM

Wisconsin I agree with. No clear frontrunner on the Democratic side, plus Walker has survived when he wasn't supposed to before. There's really no indication that he's in danger of losing.

What about muh bloo wave? That means any rating the that doesnt have a Democrat automatically winning is a dumbass rating.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: June 05, 2018, 08:27:45 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Reactionary on June 05, 2018, 06:09:10 AM
Quote from: PAK Man on June 04, 2018, 09:51:24 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on June 04, 2018, 06:53:08 AM

Wisconsin I agree with. No clear frontrunner on the Democratic side, plus Walker has survived when he wasn't supposed to before. There's really no indication that he's in danger of losing.

What about muh bloo wave? That means any rating the that doesnt have a Democrat automatically winning is a dumbass rating.
What about muh generic ballot? Democrats are only leading by 1 according to a poll therefore they are going to lose. Any rating where the Republicans lose is dumb.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2018, 10:27:00 AM »
None as bad as Solid's Senate ratings though
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #22 on: June 05, 2018, 10:27:43 AM »
Quote from: dfwlibertylover on June 05, 2018, 10:27:00 AM
None as bad as Solid's Senate ratings though

That's a supremely low bar.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #23 on: June 05, 2018, 12:30:49 PM »
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