Special Election CA-48

[Sam Spade]

For the Californians on this site.

As if anyone really cares.   

This is Chris Cox's former seat.  Orange County, CA, really Newport Beach.

Turnout, from reports I have, was extremely light.

You can follow the results here, if you want to:

http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/Live/e26/results.htm

If one candidate gets over 50% of the vote, there will be no runoff.

[AuH2O]

There is some interest because of Gilchrist's candidacy.

If no one gets 50% +1, by the way, any qualifying party's top candidate makes the runoff. So no matter how many votes they get, the Green, Libertarian, and American Independent parties would all participate, as well of course as the GOP and DNC.

[AuH2O]

Gilchrist is in 3rd right now, behind 2 Republicans, and he's gaining ground on Brewer (endorsed by McCain and various moderate GOP elements). He's got a decent lead over the leading Democrat, who is in 4th.

Looks like Gilchrist did the worst among absentee voters... in part perhaps because he's gained some momentum of late. Campbell appears unlikely to get 50%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hey, it's got the city that almost banned water, Aliso Viejo. Needless to say, the people in this district aren't that smart.

[MAS117]

  Orange County
48th Congressional District Primary Election
October 4, 2005, 10:46 PM

Unofficial Results for Election

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 268 of 268
   Reg/Turnout    Percentage
Total Registered Voters    402006    
Precinct Registration    402006    
Precinct Ballots Cast    31959    7.9%
Early Ballots Cast    962    0.2%
Absentee Ballots Cast    47440    11.8%
Total Ballots Cast    80361    20.0%

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th District
   Vote Count    Percentage
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP)    36640    46.0%
MARILYN C. BREWER (REP)    13272    16.7%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI)    11490    14.4%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM)    7110    8.9%
JOHN GRAHAM (DEM)    3242    4.1%
BEA FOSTER (DEM)    2606    3.3%
DON UDALL (REP)    1284    1.6%
JOHN KELLY (REP)    955    1.2%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN)    698    0.9%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB)    667    0.8%
DAVID R. CROUCH (REP)    455    0.6%
SCOTT MACCABE (REP)    353    0.4%
MARSHA A. MORRIS (REP)    322    0.4%
TOM PALLOW (DEM)    270    0.3%
GUY E. MAILLY (REP)    138    0.2%
MARSHALL SAMUEL SANDERS (REP)    94    0.1%
EDWARD A. SUPPE (REP)    87    0.1%

Looks like another election.

[AuH2O]

Gilchrist finished in 3rd, with 14.4%, more than the top 2 Democrats combined. My rough math indicates he got over 20% of those that voted today as opposed to absentee. The 2nd place finisher, Republican Marilyn Brewer, got more votes than all Democrats combined.

Campbell finished with 46% after getting ~52% of absentees; those ballots however numbered over half the total. His election day performance was around 40%.

The runoff will be:

GOP: Campbell- 46%
AIP: Gilchrist- 14.4%
DNC: Young- 8.9%
GRN: Tiritilli- .9%
LP: Cohen- .8%

Campbell is the overwhelming favorite. There is the potential for a 3-way race if Gilchrist gets an infusion of funds, though neither he nor Young stands a serious chance of winning. Gilchrist should at least be able to put some fear into Campbell.

[socaldem]

Gilchrist is in 3rd right now, behind 2 Republicans, and he's gaining ground on Brewer (endorsed by McCain and various moderate GOP elements). He's got a decent lead over the leading Democrat, who is in 4th.

Looks like Gilchrist did the worst among absentee voters... in part perhaps because he's gained some momentum of late. Campbell appears unlikely to get 50%.

Does the abject failure of the McCain-endorsed candidate say anything about McCain's chances with the rank and file in a Presidential primary in 2008?

If anything, though, it seems McCain has burned some bridges with the O.C. gop establishment because they worked very hard for Campbell and chastized--and even censured--Brewer.  I suppose that donor base might drift to Rudy or Allen....