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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11 (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11  (Read 6181 times)
krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,376


« on: May 30, 2018, 12:57:41 pm »
« edited: May 31, 2018, 07:46:10 am by Brittain33 »

This poll indicates a likely victory for Cruz.
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krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,376


« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2018, 01:32:03 pm »

The poll has Cruz up on O'Rourke 46-44% among Hispanics.

FWIW, Trump lost Texas Hispanics 61-34% in 2016.

Even Gov. Abbott lost them 55-44% in 2014, even while he was winning statewide by 20 points.

Now check out the Texas white vote and repeat.
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krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,376


« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2018, 01:49:20 pm »

The poll has Cruz up on O'Rourke 46-44% among Hispanics.

FWIW, Trump lost Texas Hispanics 61-34% in 2016.

Even Gov. Abbott lost them 55-44% in 2014, even while he was winning statewide by 20 points.

Now check out the Texas white vote and repeat.

Abbott carried whites by 47 points in 2014, the exact same amount he's carrying them by in the new Q-poll. We don't know how Cruz did among whites in 2012 because there was no exit polling. But Trump carried them by 43 points in 2016. Cruz is currently carrying them by not much less than that (34 points).

So I'm not sure I see your point...

Cornyn got 74% of the white vote and won whites by 52%. 9% less margin among whites greatly skews the overall margins against Cruz compared to reality by at least 5%. It is in fact much less.
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