TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Within range of expectations. Throw it in the average.

[KingSweden]

I like how a poll that aligns with expectations that pretty much everyone had still triggers a flame war lol

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Just take the average of the polls. This poll looks off, but so did the other QPAC poll which had Cruz up by only 3. Average of Cruz + 3 and Cruz + 11 is Cruz + 7.

[krazen1211]

The poll has Cruz up on O'Rourke 46-44% among Hispanics.

FWIW, Trump lost Texas Hispanics 61-34% in 2016.

Even Gov. Abbott lost them 55-44% in 2014, even while he was winning statewide by 20 points.

Now check out the Texas white vote and repeat.

Abbott carried whites by 47 points in 2014, the exact same amount he's carrying them by in the new Q-poll. We don't know how Cruz did among whites in 2012 because there was no exit polling. But Trump carried them by 43 points in 2016. Cruz is currently carrying them by not much less than that (34 points).

So I'm not sure I see your point...

Cornyn got 74% of the white vote and won whites by 52%. 9% less margin among whites greatly skews the overall margins against Cruz compared to reality by at least 5%. It is in fact much less.

[TPIG]

Good! Keep Texas (Atlas) blue!

[The Mikado]

I still think that, at the end of the day, result will be somewhere between Cruz+6 and Cruz+8. Enough to give Lyin' Ted a scare, but not enough to actually topple him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Dominating victory for Cruz.

Has your kiddie diddler conceded yet?

[KingSweden]

I still think that, at the end of the day, result will be somewhere between Cruz+6 and Cruz+8. Enough to give Lyin' Ted a scare, but not enough to actually topple him.

A reasonable prediction (and in line with DTC’s point up above)

[UncleSam]

Cruz was only ever going down in a D+10 or more environment. We will see if that’s how it is looking come November.

[Doimper]

Tossup.

[Politician]

Still Lean Republican, but an upset possible.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah, that April poll was probably a bit funky.

[Politician]

Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.

[JG]

Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.

WV and TX are both incredibly overhyped races, especially by the so-called “experts”. I think Manchin is actually the safest Romney state Democrat at this point, even safer than you-know-who.

Is TX overhyped by experts though? It seems to be overhyped mostly by the base than by anyone else. Most ''experts'' I've read seem to be a bit on the ''meh'' side and not very convinced that this race will be anywhere close.

[RFayette]

Terrific Ted is terrific.  News at 11.

[Thunder98]

Toss-up ====> Lean-R

[Bidenworth2020]

Here we go! Teddu Ballgame? gonna wreck Robert “beta”

Teddy Ballgame? I think you mean eduardo

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This is about what can be expected of Texas. At the end of the day, the votes are just not really there for a Democrat to win. The most that can be realistically hoped for O'Rourke is that maybe he will come somewhat close and build the TX Democratic party for the future. If O'Rourke can come within 5-8 points or so, he can show that maybe in a decade or two Democrats may start having a more realistic chance of winning statewide races in Texas.

This also means that Democratic hopes at winning the Senate basically require pulling an inside straight. Certainly quite possible given the strength of some of the Red State Dem incumbents and likely pickups in AZ and NV, but a tall order.

Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.

WV and TX are both incredibly overhyped races, especially by the so-called “experts”. I think Manchin is actually the safest Romney state Democrat at this point, even safer than you-know-who.

It is pretty natural that both WV and TX get overhyped.

TX naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:

1) It is a large and populous state. Similar to California or New York, it gets a disproportionated amount of the national attention no matter whether their races are really more competitive than other races.

2) It plays into the narrative about demographic change and hype about that.


WV naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:

1) It is close to Washington DC, and part of West Virginia is in the Washington DC media market. That means that national news reporters in DC are more likely to see occasional TV ads (or at least radio) targeted at WV voters. A handful of their co-workers also commute in to DC from the WV panhandle, which is more and more part of the DC exurbs. So as far as red states go, WV is one of the easier places for the national press to relate to. It is more accessible than Nebraska.

2) It plays into the 'racist WV hick' stereotype.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Here we go! Teddu Ballgame? gonna wreck Robert “beta”

Teddy Ballgame? I think you mean eduardo

Rafael Eduardo Cruz vs. Robert O'Rourke

[Bidenworth2020]

Here we go! Teddu Ballgame? gonna wreck Robert “beta”

Teddy Ballgame? I think you mean eduardo

Rafael Eduardo Cruz vs. Robert O'Rourke

lol. I wonder who wins latinos

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beto is too good of a candidate to lose Latinos...probably

[Xing]

Yeah, not too surprised. Rambunctious Rafael is probably safe. It's going to be far easier for Democrats to win back WI/MI/PA than to flip TX, and the "Demographics are destiny" folks really do need to realize that there has always been regional variation in the U.S., and that's not about to go away. Texas whites will continue to vote far to the right of Michigan whites for the foreseeable future.

Likely R, close to Safe R. Tennessee is definitely a better investment for Democrats, at this point.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

This is about what can be expected of Texas. At the end of the day, the votes are just not really there for a Democrat to win. The most that can be realistically hoped for O'Rourke is that maybe he will come somewhat close and build the TX Democratic party for the future. If O'Rourke can come within 5-8 points or so, he can show that maybe in a decade or two Democrats may start having a more realistic chance of winning statewide races in Texas.

This also means that Democratic hopes at winning the Senate basically require pulling an inside straight. Certainly quite possible given the strength of some of the Red State Dem incumbents and likely pickups in AZ and NV, but a tall order.

Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.

WV and TX are both incredibly overhyped races, especially by the so-called “experts”. I think Manchin is actually the safest Romney state Democrat at this point, even safer than you-know-who.

It is pretty natural that both WV and TX get overhyped.

TX naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:

1) It is a large and populous state. Similar to California or New York, it gets a disproportionated amount of the national attention no matter whether their races are really more competitive than other races.

2) It plays into the narrative about demographic change and hype about that.


WV naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:

1) It is close to Washington DC, and part of West Virginia is in the Washington DC media market. That means that national news reporters in DC are more likely to see occasional TV ads (or at least radio) targeted at WV voters. A handful of their co-workers also commute in to DC from the WV panhandle, which is more and more part of the DC exurbs. So as far as red states go, WV is one of the easier places for the national press to relate to. It is more accessible than Nebraska.

2) It plays into the 'racist WV hick' stereotype.

Good, comprehensive, balanced post.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Re: the poll itself, it isn't exactly a surprising result. The range of reasonable expectations was and always has been a nail-biter O'Rourke win to a comfortable low-to-mid-double digit Cruz win, with a sizeable majority of outcomes falling into the Cruz win category.

In other words, his average polling lead of roughly 7% is large enough that he's considered the probable winner or prohibitive favorite, but narrow enough that a slightly larger than average polling error for Senate races is all that stands between Ted Cruz and the unemployment office. Well, more plausibly, DLA Piper, but whatever.

[Pandaguineapig]

Robert Francis O'Rourke is probably another Wendy Davis; a liberal who is the darling of monied interests and national media but has little natural appeal in Texas. Like Davis he'll start out somewhat close and raise a ton of money from NY and California but fall behind the more the race goes on