Which state will become Blue first

[OSR stands with Israel]

I actually think MS will become a Blue State before TX does .


Reason for that is African Americans are significantly more Democratic than Hispanics, and the only reason the GOP wins in MS is due to winning 80%+ of the White Vote in MS. If the Dems are able to get that number down to 65% GOP I think Dems win MS.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Mississippi. All they need is high black turnout, depressed white turnout, and get a few extra points with whites. It could happen in a bizarre yet feasible scenario.

Looking at the exit polls in Texas, Latinos and Blacks are actually less Democratic there than the national average. Factor that plus blacks being such a small part of the electorate, hideously low turnout among Latinos, and the unwavering support for the Republican party by whites. I don’t see it being competitive for 30 years at least.

[Xing]

Maybe Mississippi, but honestly we're a long way from either even being purple.

[Politician]

Texas, and it will be purple by late 2020's.

[cvparty]

racial demographics are not destiny
the only thing the concept of blue mississippi has going for it is that the state is becoming less white but even then 1) so is the rest of country and 2) minorities in the state would have to maintain their support for democrats for the next several decades until the actual composition of the population that votes becomes majority-minority
texas is a more plausible case because 1) the vast majority of the growth is actually happening in urban, blue/blue-trending areas and 2) college grads are moving there at high rates

[OSR stands with Israel]

racial demographics are not destiny
the only thing the concept of blue mississippi has going for it is that the state is becoming less white but even then 1) so is the rest of country and 2) minorities in the state would have to maintain their support for democrats for the next several decades until the actual composition of the population that votes becomes majority-minority
texas is a more plausible case because 1) the vast majority of the growth is actually happening in urban, blue/blue-trending areas and 2) college grads are moving there at high rates

Actually no if Dems can reduce GOP share of the white vote in MS to 65% they will win the state

[cvparty]

racial demographics are not destiny
the only thing the concept of blue mississippi has going for it is that the state is becoming less white but even then 1) so is the rest of country and 2) minorities in the state would have to maintain their support for democrats for the next several decades until the actual composition of the population that votes becomes majority-minority
texas is a more plausible case because 1) the vast majority of the growth is actually happening in urban, blue/blue-trending areas and 2) college grads are moving there at high rates

Actually no if Dems can reduce GOP share of the white vote in MS to 65% they will win the state

why would that happen

[Skill and Chance]

Texas, easily.  I don't think Democrats will be winning anywhere near 90% of the black vote in 20 years, which would seemingly close the door on Mississippi barring a dramatic realignment of the Southern white vote.

[ON Progressive]

Mississippi definitely.

[RINO Tom]

I'll actually go with Mississippi.

[Sir Mohamed]

I go with Texas: All Dems have to do is improve in the suburbs and a few more points in the inner cities (in votes and turnout).

Why are southern whites so extrmely GOP? Usually MS should be a swing state because of the huge number of blacks.

[fluffypanther19]

Mississippi. All they need is high black turnout, depressed white turnout, and get a few extra points with whites. It could happen in a bizarre yet feasible scenario.

Looking at the exit polls in Texas, Latinos and Blacks are actually less Democratic there than the national average. Factor that plus blacks being such a small part of the electorate, hideously low turnout among Latinos, and the unwavering support for the Republican party by whites. I don’t see it being competitive for 30 years at least.

i don't think it will be 30 years, but if republicans are smart, they can maybe extend their reign over texas until the early 30s or so

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Can Harris help bring out African Americans to turnout in Mississippi enough it can be a battleground state in 2020 or most likely 2024?

[Del Tachi]

Can Harris help bring out African Americans to turnout in Mississippi enough it can be a battleground state in 2020 or most likely 2024?

Most definitely not.  Obama was much better fit for Mississippi in 2008 than Harris would be in 2020 even given the demographic changes that have happened since then.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Both vote Democrat in the same election.