Oklahoma and West Virginia

[christian peralta]

Do you think that in 2020, Oklahoma and West Virginia will have all of they counties go to the republican nominee or some might go democratic?

[Canis]

It depends if the dem is winning by a lot nationally and there's a conservative third party bid then possibly

[HAnnA MArin County]

I'll go out on a limb and say that a Democrat wins Oklahoma County, OK before flipping any county in West Virginia. Muskogee County, OK could be a close second to drop from the basket of deplorables. As for West Virginia, it's a three-way tie between Monongalia, Kanawha, and Jefferson.

[Oryxslayer]

I'll go out on a limb and say that a Democrat wins Oklahoma County, OK before flipping any county in West Virginia. Muskogee County, OK could be a close second to drop from the basket of deplorables. As for West Virginia, it's a three-way tie between Monongalia, Kanawha, and Jefferson.

Seconding this. OKC is eventually going to be voting dem if the current coalitions hold, I'm just not sure that 2020 is that year unless there is a big dem wave. It is definitely coming up soon, the 2020 gerrymandering talk already mentions cutting the county to preserve the 5-0 for later cycles.

[Gass3268]

I'll go out on a limb and say that a Democrat wins Oklahoma County, OK before flipping any county in West Virginia. Muskogee County, OK could be a close second to drop from the basket of deplorables. As for West Virginia, it's a three-way tie between Monongalia, Kanawha, and Jefferson.

Seconding this. OKC is eventually going to be voting dem if the current coalitions hold, I'm just not sure that 2020 is that year unless there is a big dem wave. It is definitely coming up soon, the 2020 gerrymandering talk already mentions cutting the county to preserve the 5-0 for later cycles.

Which is why I think there is a referendum in place to do something to create more independent redistricting.

Also, I could see Monongalia (college kids) and/or Jefferson (DCers) going Dem before Oklahoma.

[TML]

I think a Democratic nominee is much more likely to win counties in WV before OK, for the following reasons:

-OK's PVI is R+20 compared to WV's R+19.
-The last time Democrats won any counties in OK was 2000, while they last won any WV counties in 2008.
-Democrats have a plurality of registered voters in WV, but Republicans have a majority of registered voters in OK.

I think that if the next Democratic nominee is an establishment candidate, he or she will probably be shut out in both states again; if the Democratic nominee is an economic populist, then he or she will likely win some counties in WV, but whether or not any counties in OK flip will depend on how big the national PV margin is.

[Politician]

West Virginia

First county in WV to flip: Monongolia
First county in OK to flip: Oklahoma

[Skill and Chance]

Oklahoma.  I think it has peaked for Republicans.  Don't get me wrong, they'll win it for another 30 years, but the statewide margin has peaked.  OKC will eventually go the way of NE-02 and KS-03.

[ElectionsGuy]

The most likely scenario I think is Oklahoma County either in a Democratic mini-landslide in the next 2-3 election cycles or regularly after that. I don't see any flipping in West Virginia besides 3 counties (Jefferson, Kanawha, and Monongalia) getting close.

[fluffypanther19]

West Virginia

First county in WV to flip: Monongolia
First county in OK to flip: Oklahoma