Why is northern SLC so democratic?
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  Why is northern SLC so democratic?
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: May 27, 2018, 01:19:27 PM »

It is still white,although n20% hispanic and half mormon
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2018, 02:39:45 PM »

Half Mormon is below the Utah average, right?  Non-Mormons in Utah are around 70/30 Dem in most surveys, and urban Mormons likely vote less R than the statewide Mormon vote.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2018, 03:40:44 PM »

It's a lot less Mormon heavy than other parts of the state.    Without Mormons, Utah would actually vote a lot like Colorado,  it might be a swing state with a small R tilt.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2018, 03:56:19 PM »

SLC is 51% Mormon and the state is a tad over 60%. While that could make a difference, it shouldn't be that big of one. Now, if the northern part of the city is substantially less Mormon than the city or county as a whole...

For instance, Mayor Ben McAdams noted that his (old; did he move south to run for UT-4 or did he stay put?) neighborhood is well under 20% Mormon. The article also notes that Mormons are increasingly moving to the southern end of the county, closer to Utah County.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2018, 04:09:03 PM »

It's a lot less Mormon heavy than other parts of the state.    Without Mormons, Utah would actually vote a lot like Colorado,  it might be a swing state with a small R tilt.

I wouldn't go that far. It's hard to speculate what urban centers without the Mormons would look like, but unless SLC had a huge influx of outsiders like the Front Range, I don't think Utah comes anywhere close to being CO-levels of swing. In addition to the Front Range (or maybe in conjunction with), CO has two major universities/college towns which draw in a lot of liberal influence in a way that Utah and Utah State do not (in a Mormon-less hypothetical, BYU does not exist). Plus, CO's hard left turn has been solidified by the plethora of ski towns and resorts (e.g., Aspen, Breckenridge, Telluride, Steamboat); Utah's only comparable area for wealthy resorters is Park City.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2018, 05:46:21 PM »

Been awhile since I've been in SLC and can't really break down the population by Religious Affiliation within the City, but there are some noteworthy Demographic considerations to consider....

1.) There is a significant Latino Population of 42-45% in the North-Central neighborhoods of Rose Park and Fairpark, and about 36% in the NW neighborhood of Westpointe.

Although the Latino population skews younger, it still accounts for for a significant chunk of the population aged 18-44....

There are also significant African-American and Asian-American population in these same neighborhoods.....

2.) Although the Central and Northeastern Parts of North SLC are much more heavily Anglo, they also include some constituencies that for different reasons have tended to skew a bit more Democratic in recent years....

A.) University Populations----  This part of SLC is home to the University of Utah, where the Campus precincts combined with the off-campus precincts with an overwhelmingly Undergrad Aged population went +52% D in the 2016 Presidential election (66% D- 14% R- 21% Others).

Here's a link to some research that I did on a thread I created on the voting patterns of Undergrad populations within Division I-A football Universities:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5926059#msg5926059

Now, the important thing to note here, is that I used a very "conservative criteria" for inclusion of Undergrad student precincts, so these numbers aren't really representative of the of the overall "reach" of the campus population in these neighborhoods, which would likely include not only additional undergrads, but grad students, professors, and faculty as well.

B.) Government Sector Employees----

This part of SLC is home to the State Capitol, and although I'm sure that State Employees live in various locations throughout the City and County, it wouldn't surprise me if those workers that have chosen to live in a more centrally located part of the City, tend to skew a bit more Democratic than those who reside elsewhere.

C.) Younger Populations---

This generally a pretty youthful part of the City, with extremely high concentrations of younger populations located in the Downtown and Central City neighborhoods, and relatively small populations of Middle-Aged and Older voters....

This is obviously an age demographic, even in Utah that will tend to skew quite a bit more Democratic.

D.) Upper-Middle Class Voters----

Although in general most of the neighborhoods in North SLC aren't particularly impressive in terms of Median Household Income (MHI) compared to a few neighborhoods in the SE part of the City, you do have some neighborhoods such as Greater Avenues, and the Northern part of Eastbench that are pretty well off compared to much of the City.

To summarize, even without doing a comprehensive precinct level analysis overlapping with social-demographics for the '12 and '16 Presidential elections, let alone trying to map the LDS / Mormon vote by region within SLC, it does appear that we might have at least something to work with when trying to explain the Northern SLC Democratic voting habits.....
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jamestroll
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2018, 05:58:08 PM »

As someone who lived in Utah for 6 years I can shed light on this.

1) Mormon Population: Salt Lake County is only 51% Mormon and the city proper of Salt Lake City is 35% Mormon.  The city proper of Salt Lake City also attracts a lot of ex and jack Mormons. They would be inclined to vote Democratic. Salt Lake County has just over 1,000,000 residents while the capital city has under 200,000.

2) This goes for Salt Lake County and City.. it is an urban county with some diversity. Literally when you drive on the border between Salt Lake County and Utah County you can literally feel the atmosphere change. Even the Southern and especially the southeastern part of the county are much more Democratic friendly compared to as heavily LDS areas in Utah County and elsewhere in the state.

A cultural difference. Salt Lake County is more mainstream while the LDS Church influences day to day life up and down in Utah County.

3) Out of state move ins will typically move to Salt Lake County unless they are working in the recreational or hospitality industry. The latter largely moves to Summit County Utah.

These are basically my own thoughts. Everyone else who posted in the thread covered it quite well before I jumped in.

Should be noted that the city proper of Salt Lake has a significant crime rate which often stuns visitors to the city. It is not what they expect. You drive from the airport to downtown you immediately see druggies and homeless on the streets. Once you leave the city proper you will NEVER see that.

Continuing my rant.. due to Democrats often winning county wide offices in Salt Lake County due to Salt Lake City, West Valley City and a few others it does make the southern part of the county more "used to" being governed by Democrats so to speak. West Jordan, UT and Saratoga Springs, UT are probably equally conservative in ideology but the former is a lot more open to Democrats than the latter.
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jamestroll
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2018, 06:05:22 PM »



This is the map by county. Note that Northern Salt Lake County is dominated by Salt Lake City and is well under half Mormon.

Also West Valley City has a large Hispanic population... oh how I miss it.. and many of them will be Catholic.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2018, 06:12:52 PM »



This is the map by county. Note that Northern Salt Lake County is dominated by Salt Lake City and is well under half Mormon.

Also West Valley City has a large Hispanic population... oh how I miss it.. and many of them will be Catholic.

Just to clarify, this appears to be a map of Mormon / LDS population by County.... in case anyone not particularly familiar with Utah politics and demographics were curious.... Smiley
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jamestroll
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2018, 06:15:55 PM »



This is the map by county. Note that Northern Salt Lake County is dominated by Salt Lake City and is well under half Mormon.

Also West Valley City has a large Hispanic population... oh how I miss it.. and many of them will be Catholic.

Just to clarify, this appears to be a map of Mormon / LDS population by County.... in case anyone not particularly familiar with Utah politics and demographics were curious.... Smiley

Oh thank you!

Basically, with some exception, you can take the LDS % and construct a county map of a hypothetical Democratic victory in the state. Would likely me Salt Lake County D over 60% and winning Weber, Summit, and Grand. Carbon may be too far gone but Democrats hold decent locally there.

And after doing all that the Democrat would have to pull a hail mary and earn 35% in Utah County minimum.
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