Day 36: Oklahoma

[Rob]

Count on a dozen-odd counties in Little Dixie going Democratic in 2008.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Count on a dozen-odd counties in Little Dixie going Democratic in 2008.

Why is that?  From what I've read Oklahoma nationally may be solidly Republican but there are still a lot of blue collar, blue dog Democrats in the state.  Urban Oklahoma - Oklahoma City and Tulsa was previously the most Republican part of the state while Little Dixie in Southern Oklahoma was traditionally Democratic; these voting patterns emerged in the 2002 Gubernatorial race.  Brad Henry won by the narrowest of margins, 43%-43% because of high turnout in rural Oklahoma in opposition to a ban on cock fighting.  The ban passed statewide 56%-44% I think but esentially enough of the rural Democratic block turned out to hand the election to Henry. 

2004 was the first election in which the Republican share of the vote was the same statewide.  66% in Oklahoma City and Tulsa, and 66% in Little Dixie.  Another interesting fact about 2004 is that 28% of African Americans voted for Bush, I suppose J.C. Watts must have swung a few but I believe that was his highest support amongst blacks in the nation. 

[Rob]

Yes; 2004 was highly unusual. Huge evangelical turnout accounted for the Bush 77-county sweep, and that's not going to happen in 2008. Look at this:



Kerry was relatively strong in Little Dixie, as Democrats always are. If we assume a strong candidate (*cough* Mark Warner *cough*), I see no reason why we can't have a result like this...



And that was Mike Dukakis!

Democrats aren't going to carry Oklahoma in a presidential race outside of an LBJ-style sweep (and maybe not even then), but we can break 40 percent and kick GOP ass in Little Dixie.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...do also note that the Democratic candidate in the OK-2 CD (which includes almost all of rural Eastern Oklahoma) in 2004 actually won every single county in the district. It was an open seat as well.

John Kerry just had sod all appeal to working class voters (something that cost him the White House IMO).

[minionofmidas]

How come Oklahoma Native Americans didn't turn out for Kerry last year? All those other Reservation counties throughout the west were strong Democrat, like Sioux/Rolette, ND, Thurston NE, Apache, AZ.

Because not enough of Oklahoma's Native Americans are anything like the Dakota, Turtle Mountain Ojibwa, Winnebago or Navajo?
Most Oklahoma Indians speak only English, and have done so for two generations and more. Many are descendants of now very small Indian Nations, often with a long history of deracination and halfway acculturation even before they arrived in Oklahoma (they are the descendants of the original stereotype "Drunken Indians", if you must ) - and of course, next to none of these are fullbloods. They might be fullblood Indians, or they might not be but still check only "Indian", or they might check both White and Indian, but there are next to no fullblood Kaws or fullblood Peorias or fullblood Eastern Shawnee etc left.
Then there are the Cherokee. The Cherokee are the largest Indian Nation in the US simply because they have no blood quantum requirement for membership - any decendant of anyone who was a tribal member in 1907 can be a member now. Needless to say, many of these people - including many who identify as Indian - are well over half White. When you looked at Carson, did you feel you were looking at an "Indian"? Since that's what he is, in the Oklahoma scheme of things.
Nuclei of relatively traditional full blood Indians who remember their language can be found in Oklahoma - mostly among the Creek and Choctaw - but I'm not sure of their voting patterns.

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The funny thing is, had the GOP's early frontrunner, Humphreys, who was more of a suburban whitecollar moderate (think Bob Corker), been the candidate, Carson would almost certainly have won. Coburn had far more appeal to Oklahoma's rural Democrats than Humphreys, and (like Carson) was from Little Dixie.

[Rob]

John Kerry just had sod all appeal to working class voters (something that cost him the White House IMO).

True.

I'm appalled that he lost Wyoming County, West Virginia and Harlan, Kentucky (not even breaking 40 percent in the latter). By all rights, these places should have gone heavily Democratic.

But God bless Elliot, Kentucky. He fell just short of 70 percent there.

Elliot: Democratic since the days of Andrew Jackson.

[minionofmidas]

John Kerry just had sod all appeal to working class voters (something that cost him the White House IMO).

True.

I'm appalled that he lost Wyoming County, West Virginia and Harlan, Kentucky (not even breaking 40 percent in the latter). By all rights, these places should have gone heavily Democratic.

But God bless Elliot, Kentucky. He fell just short of 70 percent there.

Elliot: Democratic since the days of Andrew Jackson.

Unlike you.

[Rob]

[Joe Biden 2020]

I guess an Oklahoma thread just wouldn't be the same without an Okie posting in it.

Oklahoma at the state level is primarily a one-party state, Democrat.  Only recently have the Republicans started making some inroads.  At the national level, we are conservative more than we are Republican.  Given the right candidate, especially a few elections down the road, say 2012, 2016, or 2020, Oklahoma could go blue federally. 

Brad Carson was a relatively weak candidate and thats why he didn't do so good.  Tom Coburn, though, has fulfilled his promises while in Washington that he made to the people of Oklahoma.  He's trying to reduce the wasteful spending in Washington.  For that, he's been a good Senator, a little better than the hot-aired Jim Inhofe.

Democrats will continue to keep control of Oklahoma at the state level well past our centennial (which by the way, is November 16, 2007).  Republicans will continue to be the rule of thumb for Oklahoma federally until the Democrats really moderate their social stances.