PPP poll of WI-Gov: Evers (D) 49%, Walker (R) 45%

[junior chįmp]

https://www.scribd.com/document/379973946/WI-Gov-PPP-for-Tony-Evers-May-2018

[BudgieForce]

In before people falsely claim PPP has d-friendly poll numbers.

[YE]

Walker isn't "done" but this race is tossup or Lean D.

[RINO Tom]

In Wississippi?!  Yeah, right, bro!

[Gass3268]

It's an internal, so take it with a grain of salt, but the fact that the pundits still have this at Lean R is baffling.

Also to me the key point is the difference in favorability.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

In Wississippi?!  Yeah, right, bro!

Indeed; the solid R state of Wisoming won't allow for this.

>red avvies thinking Wisc Virginia is in play

[mds32]

It's an internal, so take it with a grain of salt, but the fact that the pundits still have this at Lean R is baffling.

Also to me the key point is the difference in favorability.

They probably are holding it here until the primary tbh, Evers is the best candidate but he has some issues at the moment. Therefore they probably want to wait to make sure that it is Evers in the race.

[KingSweden]

It's an internal, so take it with a grain of salt, but the fact that the pundits still have this at Lean R is baffling.

Also to me the key point is the difference in favorability.

They probably are holding it here until the primary tbh, Evers is the best candidate but he has some issues at the moment. Therefore they probably want to wait to make sure that it is Evers in the race.

^^^

[MT Treasurer]

Walker is obviously in trouble and could very well lose, but he’s about as “DOA” as Ron Johnson was at this point in 2016. Definitely one of the most difficult gubernatorial races to predict.

[President Johnson]

Fantastic news, freedom poll. Still toss-up, but closer to lean Democratic. Certainly not lean or likely Republican as some people and websites like RCP suggest.

[Politician]

Fantastic news, freedom poll. Still toss-up, but closer to lean Democratic. Certainly not lean or likely Republican as some people and websites like RCP suggest.

Or Charlie Cook/Inside Elections/Sabato/CNN's lean R rating, Inside Elections seriously believes Walker is more likely to win than Baldwin LOL.

[Xing]

A poll showing a Democrat ahead in Wisconsin!? Ruh-oh, my mind model tells me that this must be wrong. Time to #UnskewTheBlue!

The Presidential and Senate race were off by 7% in 2016, and that's the only polling bias in Wisconsin that matters to me, so let's adjust this poll seven points to the right. Walker +3.

Now, the fact that Wisconsin is trending sharply to the right, and thus will be even more Republican-leaning this year than it was in 2016, if we ignore special elections which we should, means we can add another 4 points. Walker +7.

Also, Republicans are spending a lot of money in Wisconsin, and we know how much money means in politics, plus muh Walker/Ryan machine and muh THREE TIMES IN FOUR YEARS means that we can easily add another 5 points. Walker +12.

My mind model means Wisconsin is Safe R, and even if demographics aren't destiny in most states, they must be in this state. Walker +16.

There we go, everyone. Feel free to unskew Wisconsin polls ~20% in Walker's favor to adjust how strongly Republican Wisconsin is now.

[Politician]

A poll showing a Democrat ahead in Wisconsin!? Ruh-oh, my mind model tells me that this must be wrong. Time to #UnskewTheBlue!

The Presidential and Senate race were off by 7% in 2016, and that's the only polling bias in Wisconsin that matters to me, so let's adjust this poll seven points to the right. Walker +3.

Now, the fact that Wisconsin is trending sharply to the right, and thus will be even more Republican-leaning this year than it was in 2016, if we ignore special elections which we should, means we can add another 4 points. Walker +7.

Also, Republicans are spending a lot of money in Wisconsin, and we know how much money means in politics, plus muh Walker/Ryan machine and muh THREE TIMES IN FOUR YEARS means that we can easily add another 5 points. Walker +12.

My mind model means Wisconsin is Safe R, and even if demographics aren't destiny in most states, they must be in this state. Walker +16.

There we go, everyone. Feel free to unskew Wisconsin polls ~20% in Walker's favor to adjust how strongly Republican Wisconsin is now.

Add another 4 points because Ron Johnson won in 2016.

[Young Conservative]

Tossup. Evers is obviously the best candidate. Mahlon would make this likely R in my opinion. Evers makes it tilt D.

[redjohn]

Evers is a lousy, incredibly uninspiring candidate. Mitchell has the best shot against Walker, but it's (slightly) possible this year is favorable enough to Dems that Evers squeaks by to beat Walker.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fantastic news, freedom poll. Still toss-up, but closer to lean Democratic. Certainly not lean or likely Republican as some people and websites like RCP suggest.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Feingold 2.0. There's no indication anything has changed in Wisconsin since 2014/2016. Polls this far out mean nothing.

[YE]

Feingold 2.0. There's no indication anything has changed in Wisconsin since 2014/2016. Polls this far out mean nothing.

So Evers winning by like 40 last year, and the Supreme Court race this year mean nothing?

[Sir Mohamed]

Feingold 2.0. There's no indication anything has changed in Wisconsin since 2014/2016. Polls this far out mean nothing.

Yup, and Tammy Baldwin is DOA. Try again.

[Politician]

Feingold 2.0. There's no indication anything has changed in Wisconsin since 2014/2016. Polls this far out mean nothing.

SUPREME COURT RESULTS

[redjohn]

Feingold 2.0. There's no indication anything has changed in Wisconsin since 2014/2016. Polls this far out mean nothing.

Yup, and Tammy Baldwin is DOA. Try again.

Yeah, not how this works. Baldwin is obviously favored in her race; to say Walker has a really good shot at winning (especially against the put-you-to-sleep boring Tony Evers) isn't crazy at all. Walker is just 4 points behind in a PPP poll. Walker could very easily make up that deficit.

[MasterJedi]

Evers is a lousy, incredibly uninspiring candidate. Mitchell has the best shot against Walker, but it's (slightly) possible this year is favorable enough to Dems that Evers squeaks by to beat Walker.

Lol, Mitchell is a nobody honestly, he's a non-factor in anything political in WI. A small boost in Milwaukee for an overall loss in the outstate areas.

[Skye]

Tossup.

[Maxwell]

Feingold 2.0. There's no indication anything has changed in Wisconsin since 2014/2016. Polls this far out mean nothing.

Grade A trolling friend.

[mcmikk]

But...but HOW?! WI is a Republican stronghold!! All the pundits told me this race was Lean R bc muh WI GOP machine and muh Johnson/Trump and muh THREE TIMES IN FOUR YEARS!! Clearly a junk poll. A Democrat winning in Titanium R Wisconsin is impossible.

Real talk though, Walker is probably going to get owned. I can't see him climbing any higher than that 45%. In all likelihood Evers will probably nab most of the undecideds as campaign season starts and people actually know who he is.