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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  WV-GSG: Manchin internal shows him leading by 8
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Author Topic: WV-GSG: Manchin internal shows him leading by 8  (Read 2251 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: May 23, 2018, 09:07:43 am »
« edited: May 23, 2018, 10:47:03 am by LimoLiberal »

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mds32
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2018, 10:01:40 am »



And by 7 with a Libertarian in the race
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KingSweden
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« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2018, 10:08:06 am »

This is more or less where I think the final margin would land
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2018, 10:13:54 am »

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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2018, 10:17:41 am »

WV-Global Strategy

https://joemanchinwv.com/manchin-leads-morrisey-by-8/

The PDF itself is here: https://joemanchinwv.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/WV-Sen-Polling-Memo-for-Release-5.22.18.pdf
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2018, 10:57:53 am »

This means Manchin is probably losing by a couple points, considering it's an internal.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2018, 10:59:01 am »
« Edited: May 23, 2018, 11:04:01 am by Gass3268 »

This means Manchin is probably losing by a couple points, considering it's an internal.

Lol, general rule of thumb is 4 points, unless bats**t crazy.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2018, 11:00:00 am »

So the average of the two polls we have would be Manchin+3? Not at all safe, but he probably has a slight advantage.

This means Manchin is probably losing by a couple points, considering it's an internal.

#UnskewTheBlue
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2018, 11:17:01 am »

This means Manchin is probably losing by a couple points, considering it's an internal.
Same with Amy McGrath. Her internal had her up by only 7. She must have lost by a couple points.
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President Biden
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2018, 11:17:13 am »

This is more or less where I think the final margin would land
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2018, 11:26:58 am »

MANCHIN!!! MANCHIN!!! MANCHIN!!! Let's go come on get em Manchin, lets wins this!!!!!
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UWS
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« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2018, 11:48:45 am »

Morrisey can still win this senatorial race against Manchin despite Blankenship’s third-party candidacy. After all, Marco Rubio won the Florida senate race in 2010 by a landslide despite Charlie Crist’s third-party candidacy who, at that time, shifted from Republican to Independent.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2018, 11:55:01 am »

BLANKENSHIP
LEGALLY
CAN'T
RUN

Why are you all still acting like he's magically going to ignore the Sore Loser Law and get on the ballot?
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Ses
jk2020
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« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2018, 11:59:29 am »

BLANKENSHIP
LEGALLY
CAN'T
RUN

Why are you all still acting like he's magically going to ignore the Sore Loser Law and get on the ballot?

Because the stricter sore loser law doesn't go into effect for another few months. So he could get on the ballot before then.
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UWS
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« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2018, 12:02:30 pm »

BLANKENSHIP
LEGALLY
CAN'T
RUN

Why are you all still acting like he's magically going to ignore the Sore Loser Law and get on the ballot?

So since Morrisey is still Attorney General, maybe he should launch a lawsuit against Blankenship like Josh Hawley did for Eric Greitens due to sexual assault allegations.
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mds32
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« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2018, 12:29:26 pm »

Gravis is putting out a WV poll soon I see. It seems they have a questions w/ and w/o Blankenship for fun

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/999333217399443458
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2018, 12:31:49 pm »

BLANKENSHIP
LEGALLY
CAN'T
RUN

Why are you all still acting like he's magically going to ignore the Sore Loser Law and get on the ballot?

These have been successfully challenged before.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2018, 12:46:47 pm »

BLANKENSHIP
LEGALLY
CAN'T
RUN

Why are you all still acting like he's magically going to ignore the Sore Loser Law and get on the ballot?
He doesn't need to be on the ballot. He can run as a write-in.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2018, 01:18:09 pm »

Blankenship is irrelevant, but this seat is Lean D regardless.
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brand_allen
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« Reply #19 on: May 23, 2018, 02:26:30 pm »

I know West Virginia Democrats aren't your standard Democrats, but Trump has a 39% favorability rating among them (and a 90% favorable rating among Republicans).

Meanwhile Manchin has a 29% favorable rating among West Virginia Republicans (which would be enviable for an incumbent Democrat almost anywhere else), but just 70% among his own party.

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Young Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2018, 05:06:04 pm »

This probably means Manchin is actually Up by around 2-5.  Tossup.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2018, 05:25:10 pm »

This is nice, though a public poll would be much better
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President Pericles
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« Reply #22 on: May 23, 2018, 06:57:20 pm »

Manchin's internal has him up by 8, while Morrisey's has him up by 2. It's probable that Manchin is in the lead, but by less than 8. Based on the middle of the two internals, I'd say Manchin is up by 3.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #23 on: May 23, 2018, 07:08:07 pm »

Manchin's internal has him up by 8, while Morrisey's has him up by 2. It's probable that Manchin is in the lead, but by less than 8. Based on the middle of the two internals, I'd say Manchin is up by 3.

It is noteworthy that Morrisey's poll gives dems only a 4 pt lead over the GOP on interviewees, in reality, dems usually lead by low double digits in this department. Manchin is probably leading by 5 to 6 at this point.
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westroopnerd
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« Reply #24 on: May 23, 2018, 07:08:52 pm »

Yeah, don't trust internals, but we really haven't gotten any real polling on the race since the primary. Manchin is still the slight favorite here, but he's not winning by 8. Business as usual.

Also, Blankenship isn't completely irrelevant. Even if he's not on the ballot, his interference can be nothing but bad news for Morrisey.
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