TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7

[Politician]

Not bad, O'Rourke clearly has a good chance. Besides, this is a Cruz internal so it might be even closer.

[Politician]

Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...

[Politician]

As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

46% of people barely know who Beto is and Cruz is only leading by 7. He's far from "secure", especially when his favorable ratings are 42-44.

If democrats can win in places like North Dakota, West Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri Montana, Indiana, etc (all places where Trump did significantly better in than in TX), it's not hard to see why an unpopular & far-right dysfunctional senator like Ted Cruz can lose if conditions get a bit worse for Republicans.

Not that I think Texas is purple or anything (I am a huge doubter in the blue TX pipedream). I actually think dems only gain 1 house seat from TX. Only reason I think there's a chance republicans can lose is Ted Cruz is a godawful incumbent. Abbott is obviously going to safely cruise to reelection. But I can definitely easily see Ted Cruz being held down to less than a 5 point victory, especially when democrats are coming close to winning places like AZ-08 (a suburban district that voted +20 for every Republican in the past 50 years).

Of course O'Rourke has a fighting chance. He is running a great campaign and really putting up a fight against Lyin' Ted. But of course Wulfric will believe in his "unbeatable Cruz" religion.

[Politician]

how is mid-single digits for an incumbent 5 months before the election safe lmfao

Because Atlas believes an unpopular incumbent in a red-leaning state is Safe, an unpopular incumbent in a blue-leaning state (Nevada) is favored, and a popular incumbent in a red state (North Dakota) is DOA, in a blue year even.