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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7  (Read 3015 times)
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,074

« on: May 22, 2018, 12:37:20 pm »

I also want to use this poll to reiterate my point: despite the tightening of the GCB, the individual race polls still signal a blue wave. Cruz winning by only single digits is a part of a Blue Wave.
Although I still believe in a blue wave I'd urge caution when trying to choose between individual race polls and the generic ballot. Remember in 2016 it was the individual race polls that were far off. The national polls were only off by a few points but that didn't matter since the polling for key swing states vastly overestimated Clinton.

Personally I believe things will break towards the Dems last minute. Nate's first rule of polling seems like it could come into play in 2018. Almost everybody is afraid to be bullish on Democrats after 2016 so we'll likely see it break in favor of Democrats if the rule is correct.
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