|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 29, 2020, 09:43:18 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7  (Read 3019 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 738
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 22, 2018, 10:40:17 am »

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Texas-Executive-Summary.pdf

Cruz 47
O'Rourke 40
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,733
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2018, 10:41:12 am »

Shocking.

I expect O'Rourke to perform very well.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,481
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2018, 10:41:19 am »

As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.
Logged
Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,390
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2018, 10:44:57 am »

Robert “Beta” O’Rourke will lose. Final prediction:

Rafaél Eduardo: 54
Beta Bob: 42
Some Dudes: 4
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,002
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2018, 10:46:52 am »

Not bad, still very competitive for a slightly right-leaning polling company.
Logged
Pollster
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,726


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2018, 10:50:42 am »

Cruz at -2 favorability, O'Rourke at +15.
Logged
adrac
adracman42
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 724


Political Matrix
E: -9.99, S: -9.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2018, 10:57:41 am »

A final result like this is in line with my expectations, but it is slightly worrisome for him to see this coming from his personal pollster. Seems like the race should be moderately competitive.
Logged
President Biden
Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,055
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2018, 11:02:44 am »

Not bad, O'Rourke clearly has a good chance. Besides, this is a Cruz internal so it might be even closer.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2018, 11:04:44 am »

JMC is not Cruz’s pollster, that’s WPA.

Still - suggests the CV is right on this race. Competitive, but Cruz is plainly the favorite.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,929
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2018, 11:05:05 am »

Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,661
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2018, 11:05:53 am »

Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...
Logged
President Biden
Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,055
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2018, 11:10:29 am »

Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2018, 11:13:22 am »

Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...
Logged
Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,596


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2018, 11:19:22 am »

So why the delay in releasing this, particularly if this is Cruz's internal pollster?

Were they originally getting numbers showing it closer, so they had to poll a bit more until they got numbers showing Cruz with a somewhat decent lead?

Is that what "more fieldwork" means?

I am referring to this from a few days ago, where they said they were going to release a poll but then said, oops, need more fieldwork first...:

Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2018, 11:40:55 am »

There’s some really goofy crosstabs - Cruz doing counterintuitively well with black people and young people, Beto doing oddly well with whites.
Logged
Hindsight is 2020
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,358
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2018, 11:50:24 am »

The cross tabs look weird
Logged
"Deeply Troubled"
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,474
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2018, 11:53:28 am »

There’s some really goofy crosstabs - Cruz doing counterintuitively well with black people and young people, Beto doing oddly well with whites.

My thoughts as well.
Logged
Lean Branson
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,035


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2018, 11:54:39 am »

Tossup.
Logged
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,967
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2018, 11:54:45 am »

Cruz is at 58% amongst 18-35 year olds???!!!!
Logged
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,344
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2018, 11:55:49 am »

As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,568
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2018, 11:56:31 am »

Who TF is Jenkins?! No way he's getting 6% of the vote
Logged
🌋🌋🌋🌋🌋🌋
DTC
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,357


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2018, 11:59:24 am »


46% of people barely know who Beto is and Cruz is only leading by 7. He's far from "secure", especially when his favorable ratings are 42-44.

If democrats can win in places like North Dakota, West Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri Montana, Indiana, etc (all places where Trump did significantly better in than in TX), it's not hard to see why an unpopular & far-right dysfunctional senator like Ted Cruz can lose if conditions get a bit worse for Republicans.

Not that I think Texas is purple or anything (I am a huge doubter in the blue TX pipedream). I actually think dems only gain 1 house seat from TX. Only reason I think there's a chance republicans can lose is Ted Cruz is a godawful incumbent. Abbott is obviously going to safely cruise to reelection. But I can definitely easily see Ted Cruz being held down to less than a 5 point victory, especially when democrats are coming close to winning places like AZ-08 (a suburban district that voted +20 for every Republican in the past 50 years).
Logged
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,967
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2018, 12:00:46 pm »

A 7-point lead means Cruz is “Safe”, but a 4-point lead for McCaskill means she’s doomed?
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,517
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2018, 12:01:51 pm »

Cruz at -2 favorability, O'Rourke at +15.

yeah an O'Rourke win is definitely possible.
Logged
🌋🌋🌋🌋🌋🌋
DTC
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,357


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2018, 12:04:38 pm »

A 7-point lead means Cruz is “Safe”, but a 4-point lead for McCaskill means she’s doomed?

And this is from the pollster that never had Roy Moore below a 5 point lead.

Spoiler alert: Moore lost by 1.7
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.113 seconds with 15 queries.