Day 35: Ohio

[danwxman]

Franklin county is trending Democrat. A good example of how urbanization can "liberalize" an area.

[danwxman]

As mentioned, there is a lot going on in Ohio. This state is traditionally Republican, contributing the Taft family to American politics. No Democrat has won greater than 50% here since LBJ's landslide 1964 election. Ross Perot did well in Ohio in the 1990s election, suggesting that many in Ohio are unsatisfied with both parties. Presidential elections are usually close. and that fact along with a large electoral vote make for a very important state every four years.
The most surprising results come in the Cincinnatti area. Kerry lost by huge margins in the suburbs that suround Cincy (no shock here), but he also lost Hamilton County, the county that contains the city of Cincinnatti. This is amazing considering that the he almost always won counties that contain large urban areas, especially if significant suburbs in other counties exist. This is true even in the most conservative parts of the country. Contrast with Kerry wins Marion County, Indiana; DeKalb/Fulton Counties, Georgia; Wyandotte County, Kansas.  Anybody know why Hamilton is so Republican?
Rural Ohio is Republican, of course, just like rural areas everywhere. However, western rural Ohio looks more like Wyoming than the Midwest, with overwhelming Republican victories, another key to Bush's 2004 win.
Dems have their base in large cities in Northern Ohio, a region that is aptly nicknamed the "Rust Belt."  Cities like Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, and Youngstown provided John Kerry with good vote total, although not enough to win, obviously.  This part of the state has long been Democratic, but it has become more so in recent years with the loss of many manufacturing jobs. Perhaps if Clinton had not pushed for NAFTA, the Dems could do even better here.
To win, the Dems must work on Cincinnatti. Losing Hamilton County is simply not acceptable. The nearby Dayton area also ought to give the Dems better results than it does.
The Republicans are currently tied up in coin-gate (I'll defer to a local to describe the scandal) which may give the Dems some leverage, along with Bush's bad poll numbers. Nonetheless, they will probably be helped by gay-marriage type wedge issue in Southeast Ohio, which is adjacent to West Virginia. I'll predict another nail-biter here in 2008.

Cincy is conservative because of the industrial heritage favors conservative policies, not liberal ones. Ohio's rural areas aren't typical of rural areas either, just look at some of the eastern rural counties that voted for Kerry. And you left out the Columbus area, which is the only part of Ohio really seeing strong growth.

[danwxman]

As mentioned, there is a lot going on in Ohio. This state is traditionally Republican, contributing the Taft family to American politics. No Democrat has won greater than 50% here since LBJ's landslide 1964 election. Ross Perot did well in Ohio in the 1990s election, suggesting that many in Ohio are unsatisfied with both parties. Presidential elections are usually close. and that fact along with a large electoral vote make for a very important state every four years.
The most surprising results come in the Cincinnatti area. Kerry lost by huge margins in the suburbs that suround Cincy (no shock here), but he also lost Hamilton County, the county that contains the city of Cincinnatti. This is amazing considering that the he almost always won counties that contain large urban areas, especially if significant suburbs in other counties exist. This is true even in the most conservative parts of the country. Contrast with Kerry wins Marion County, Indiana; DeKalb/Fulton Counties, Georgia; Wyandotte County, Kansas.  Anybody know why Hamilton is so Republican?
Rural Ohio is Republican, of course, just like rural areas everywhere. However, western rural Ohio looks more like Wyoming than the Midwest, with overwhelming Republican victories, another key to Bush's 2004 win.
Dems have their base in large cities in Northern Ohio, a region that is aptly nicknamed the "Rust Belt."  Cities like Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, and Youngstown provided John Kerry with good vote total, although not enough to win, obviously.  This part of the state has long been Democratic, but it has become more so in recent years with the loss of many manufacturing jobs. Perhaps if Clinton had not pushed for NAFTA, the Dems could do even better here.
To win, the Dems must work on Cincinnatti. Losing Hamilton County is simply not acceptable. The nearby Dayton area also ought to give the Dems better results than it does.
The Republicans are currently tied up in coin-gate (I'll defer to a local to describe the scandal) which may give the Dems some leverage, along with Bush's bad poll numbers. Nonetheless, they will probably be helped by gay-marriage type wedge issue in Southeast Ohio, which is adjacent to West Virginia. I'll predict another nail-biter here in 2008.

Cincy is conservative because of the industrial heritage favors conservative policies, not liberal ones. Ohio's rural areas aren't typical of rural areas either, just look at some of the eastern rural counties that voted for Kerry. And you left out the Columbus area, which is the only part of Ohio really seeing strong growth.

I must be misunderstanding you when you say that "industrial heritage favors conservative policies." The industrial parts of the state are the Dem strongholds.

I meant that wrt the Cincinnatti metro.

[danwxman]

Indeed, Columbus is a traditionally Rep city trending Dem, but still represented by Reps in Congress (partly due to gerrymandering, but only partly.) It's the state capital, I suppose it's got a lot of state employees. It's also growing healthily, unlike certain other areas of the state, I suppose it's got some modern industries.

Overall it's a pretty white collar metro. Not too much traditional industry, actually. The suburbs are Republican, I would assume....but one also has to assume that the suburbs are trending Democrat or at least attracting a lot of Democrats from out of the area. The outer rim of Franklin county is still seeing a lot of suburban growth, and even some areas within the city of Columbus are seeing some suburban residential growth...yet the area is trending Democrat.

One thing is for sure, the city and inner suburbs are seeing a lot of immigration which could certainly be contributing to the Dem trend.

[danwxman]

I suppose much of the immigration to Columbus is actually from NE Ohio...and perhaps the Ohio River Valley as well.

Sure, but by immigration I mean from other countries. Mostly the Middle East and Asia.