Day 35: Ohio

[danwxman]

I suppose much of the immigration to Columbus is actually from NE Ohio...and perhaps the Ohio River Valley as well.

Sure, but by immigration I mean from other countries. Mostly the Middle East and Asia.

[OSR stands with Israel]

As mentioned, there is a lot going on in Ohio. This state is traditionally Republican, contributing the Taft family to American politics. No Democrat has won greater than 50% here since LBJ's landslide 1964 election. Ross Perot did well in Ohio in the 1990s election, suggesting that many in Ohio are unsatisfied with both parties. Presidential elections are usually close. and that fact along with a large electoral vote make for a very important state every four years.
The most surprising results come in the Cincinnatti area. Kerry lost by huge margins in the suburbs that suround Cincy (no shock here), but he also lost Hamilton County, the county that contains the city of Cincinnatti. This is amazing considering that the he almost always won counties that contain large urban areas, especially if significant suburbs in other counties exist. This is true even in the most conservative parts of the country. Contrast with Kerry wins Marion County, Indiana; DeKalb/Fulton Counties, Georgia; Wyandotte County, Kansas.  Anybody know why Hamilton is so Republican?
Rural Ohio is Republican, of course, just like rural areas everywhere. However, western rural Ohio looks more like Wyoming than the Midwest, with overwhelming Republican victories, another key to Bush's 2004 win.

Dems have their base in large cities in Northern Ohio, a region that is aptly nicknamed the "Rust Belt."  Cities like Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, and Youngstown provided John Kerry with good vote total, although not enough to win, obviously.  This part of the state has long been Democratic, but it has become more so in recent years with the loss of many manufacturing jobs. Perhaps if Clinton had not pushed for NAFTA, the Dems could do even better here.
To win, the Dems must work on Cincinnatti. Losing Hamilton County is simply not acceptable. The nearby Dayton area also ought to give the Dems better results than it does.
The Republicans are currently tied up in coin-gate (I'll defer to a local to describe the scandal) which may give the Dems some leverage, along with Bush's bad poll numbers. Nonetheless, they will probably be helped by gay-marriage type wedge issue in Southeast Ohio, which is adjacent to West Virginia. I'll predict another nail-biter here in 2008.

Interesting how the script changed but this poster was spot on what the Democratic path to winning Ohio was in 2008 and 2012

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As mentioned, there is a lot going on in Ohio. This state is traditionally Republican, contributing the Taft family to American politics. No Democrat has won greater than 50% here since LBJ's landslide 1964 election. Ross Perot did well in Ohio in the 1990s election, suggesting that many in Ohio are unsatisfied with both parties. Presidential elections are usually close. and that fact along with a large electoral vote make for a very important state every four years.
The most surprising results come in the Cincinnatti area. Kerry lost by huge margins in the suburbs that suround Cincy (no shock here), but he also lost Hamilton County, the county that contains the city of Cincinnatti. This is amazing considering that the he almost always won counties that contain large urban areas, especially if significant suburbs in other counties exist. This is true even in the most conservative parts of the country. Contrast with Kerry wins Marion County, Indiana; DeKalb/Fulton Counties, Georgia; Wyandotte County, Kansas.  Anybody know why Hamilton is so Republican?
Rural Ohio is Republican, of course, just like rural areas everywhere. However, western rural Ohio looks more like Wyoming than the Midwest, with overwhelming Republican victories, another key to Bush's 2004 win.

Dems have their base in large cities in Northern Ohio, a region that is aptly nicknamed the "Rust Belt." Cities like Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, and Youngstown provided John Kerry with good vote total, although not enough to win, obviously.  This part of the state has long been Democratic, but it has become more so in recent years with the loss of many manufacturing jobs. Perhaps if Clinton had not pushed for NAFTA, the Dems could do even better here.
To win, the Dems must work on Cincinnatti. Losing Hamilton County is simply not acceptable. The nearby Dayton area also ought to give the Dems better results than it does.
The Republicans are currently tied up in coin-gate (I'll defer to a local to describe the scandal) which may give the Dems some leverage, along with Bush's bad poll numbers. Nonetheless, they will probably be helped by gay-marriage type wedge issue in Southeast Ohio, which is adjacent to West Virginia. I'll predict another nail-biter here in 2008.

Interesting how the script changed but this poster was spot on what the Democratic path to winning Ohio was in 2008 and 2012

The scripted changed because Boehner became Speaker and brought Earmarks back to OH like Ryan did.

This is why Brown won in 2018 and we have a shot in 2022Boehner is now retired and now OH is more winnable now

Underestimate Tim Ryan if you want, it's to the Rs detriment and Ryan will beat Mandel whom is a weak candidate

[Chips]

As mentioned, there is a lot going on in Ohio. This state is traditionally Republican, contributing the Taft family to American politics. No Democrat has won greater than 50% here since LBJ's landslide 1964 election. Ross Perot did well in Ohio in the 1990s election, suggesting that many in Ohio are unsatisfied with both parties. Presidential elections are usually close. and that fact along with a large electoral vote make for a very important state every four years.
The most surprising results come in the Cincinnatti area. Kerry lost by huge margins in the suburbs that suround Cincy (no shock here), but he also lost Hamilton County, the county that contains the city of Cincinnatti. This is amazing considering that the he almost always won counties that contain large urban areas, especially if significant suburbs in other counties exist. This is true even in the most conservative parts of the country. Contrast with Kerry wins Marion County, Indiana; DeKalb/Fulton Counties, Georgia; Wyandotte County, Kansas.  Anybody know why Hamilton is so Republican?
Rural Ohio is Republican, of course, just like rural areas everywhere. However, western rural Ohio looks more like Wyoming than the Midwest, with overwhelming Republican victories, another key to Bush's 2004 win.

Dems have their base in large cities in Northern Ohio, a region that is aptly nicknamed the "Rust Belt."  Cities like Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, and Youngstown provided John Kerry with good vote total, although not enough to win, obviously.  This part of the state has long been Democratic, but it has become more so in recent years with the loss of many manufacturing jobs. Perhaps if Clinton had not pushed for NAFTA, the Dems could do even better here.
To win, the Dems must work on Cincinnatti. Losing Hamilton County is simply not acceptable. The nearby Dayton area also ought to give the Dems better results than it does.
The Republicans are currently tied up in coin-gate (I'll defer to a local to describe the scandal) which may give the Dems some leverage, along with Bush's bad poll numbers. Nonetheless, they will probably be helped by gay-marriage type wedge issue in Southeast Ohio, which is adjacent to West Virginia. I'll predict another nail-biter here in 2008.

Interesting how the script changed but this poster was spot on what the Democratic path to winning Ohio was in 2008 and 2012

They even mentioned that the Dems must flip Hamilton.

[OSR stands with Israel]

As mentioned, there is a lot going on in Ohio. This state is traditionally Republican, contributing the Taft family to American politics. No Democrat has won greater than 50% here since LBJ's landslide 1964 election. Ross Perot did well in Ohio in the 1990s election, suggesting that many in Ohio are unsatisfied with both parties. Presidential elections are usually close. and that fact along with a large electoral vote make for a very important state every four years.
The most surprising results come in the Cincinnatti area. Kerry lost by huge margins in the suburbs that suround Cincy (no shock here), but he also lost Hamilton County, the county that contains the city of Cincinnatti. This is amazing considering that the he almost always won counties that contain large urban areas, especially if significant suburbs in other counties exist. This is true even in the most conservative parts of the country. Contrast with Kerry wins Marion County, Indiana; DeKalb/Fulton Counties, Georgia; Wyandotte County, Kansas.  Anybody know why Hamilton is so Republican?
Rural Ohio is Republican, of course, just like rural areas everywhere. However, western rural Ohio looks more like Wyoming than the Midwest, with overwhelming Republican victories, another key to Bush's 2004 win.

Dems have their base in large cities in Northern Ohio, a region that is aptly nicknamed the "Rust Belt." Cities like Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, and Youngstown provided John Kerry with good vote total, although not enough to win, obviously.  This part of the state has long been Democratic, but it has become more so in recent years with the loss of many manufacturing jobs. Perhaps if Clinton had not pushed for NAFTA, the Dems could do even better here.
To win, the Dems must work on Cincinnatti. Losing Hamilton County is simply not acceptable. The nearby Dayton area also ought to give the Dems better results than it does.
The Republicans are currently tied up in coin-gate (I'll defer to a local to describe the scandal) which may give the Dems some leverage, along with Bush's bad poll numbers. Nonetheless, they will probably be helped by gay-marriage type wedge issue in Southeast Ohio, which is adjacent to West Virginia. I'll predict another nail-biter here in 2008.

Interesting how the script changed but this poster was spot on what the Democratic path to winning Ohio was in 2008 and 2012

They even mentioned that the Dems must flip Hamilton.

And mentioned how SE Ohio wont be part of their path to winning OH anymore. Really Ohio has always been a tough state for the dems and required Dems to dominate in North East Ohio(like Kerry actually did) along with winning either SE OH(like Carter and Clinton did) or win Hamilton and do pretty well in Franklin County(like Obama did).

Basically the timing has to be right for both those factors like it was for Carter, Clinton and then Obama and even for Clinton he only barely won the state with Perot on the ballot in 1992.

Even Ohio bellwether could have been broken many times before 2020 in :


1992: Without Perot on the Ballot Bush wins this even though he loses overall and Clinton only won it by less than 2 points anyway

2000: a few hundred votes in Florida go the other way and Gore wins without Ohio

2016: Hillary would have had at least 334 EV before Ohio became flippable

[pbrower2a]

The urban areas other than Greater Columbus have been hemorrhaging jobs, and people who lose their jobs are going to greater Columbus or leaving the state altogether. What remains is the rural areas which are as Republican-leaning as ever. Trump flooded rural areas with crop subsidies, and even if he is the most obnoxious city slicker who has ever been a major political figure attempting to win nationwide, he got that right politically. This was enough to keep Michigan and Wisconsin close. 

The Biden administration is more likely to reduce crop subsidies while supporting free trade because he has little chance to make inroads upon the rural vote. (See also Iowa).