R win CO, VA or D win OH, IA, which is more likely to happen/happens first?

[David Hume]

Seeing so many post asking unlikely things, I am adding my own contribution.

[_.]

D win IA (~3% chance IMHO)

The Selzer poll has Biden's net approval rating at +3% in Iowa, and the Selzer's never wrong.

[CookieDamage]

R wins in CO and VA are borderline impossible. I'd think that a D win in OH is slightly more plausible than one in OH specifically because there are more big cities and suburban areas where Dems can increase their margins.

[Chips]

D win OH
D win IA
R win VA
R win CO

I think VA will be closer than IA but the fact that IA is more prone to wild swings makes IA more likely in my opinion.

[MT Treasurer]

I thought the "IA is intrinsically prone to wild swings" meme would have been on its way out by now, but apparently not...

D win IA (~3% chance IMHO)

The Selzer poll has Biden's net approval rating at +3% in Iowa, and the Selzer's never wrong.

Governor Hubbell agrees with your assessment.

(Anyway, OH in the fairly long run, but that’s saying more about how gone IA/VA/CO are than how "competitive" OH still is.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's win OH, NC or OH in a D PVI 3.1 Election along with GA will vote D

[Person Man]

What’s more likely? Republicans solidifying their gains with say generally anti-civil liberty Hispanics or generally anti-immigration White tradesmen and laborers? If the former, maybe they eventually start winning downballot in Colorado again but maybe holes open up in Ohio. There’s not really enough of any of these people in Virginia and Iowa is small enough to change by just people moving there. Ohio definitely has gotten more Republican with people moving out.

[_.]

I thought the "IA is intrinsically prone to wild swings" meme would have been on its way out by now, but apparently not...

D win IA (~3% chance IMHO)

The Selzer poll has Biden's net approval rating at +3% in Iowa, and the Selzer's never wrong.

Governor Hubbell agrees with your assessment.

(Anyway, OH in the fairly long run, but that’s saying more about how gone IA/VA/CO are than how "competitive" OH still is.)

Fine, I suppose my statement was a bit hyperbolic.

You have to admit though that Selzer is one of the best if not the best pollster in the business.

[TDAS04]

One of the last two options.

[Pink Panther]

Dems winning OH, though it would be very difficult.

[Hope For A New Era]

In order of probability:

D win IA
D win OH
R win VA
R win CO

[Roll Roons]

Do Republicans have much more room to gain in rural Ohio? I feel like Democrats can definitely improve in the Columbus and Cincy metros.

[Xing]

Democrats winning Ohio, by process of elimination. Still not at all likely, though.

[Non Swing Voter]

Probably Democrats winning Ohio.  At least in that state there are cross currents (cities and near in suburbs that could trend D to offset general R trend).  I don't see that in the other 3 states.

[pbrower2a]

D winning Ohio. Such suggests some revival of the industrial activity in what have been Ohio's many troubled cities (Akron, Canton, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dayton, Lima, Mansfield, Springfield, Toledo, and Youngstown -- I mentioned everything but Columbus!), and Democrats will get the credit. Rural Ohio is not growing; it is stagnant, but it is strongly R.