IN-SEN Gravis: Braun +1

[junior chįmp]

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html

Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.

[junior chįmp]

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html

Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.

Don't forget the Supreme Court. If Scalia had lived until November 2016, Trump would have lost.

I doubt the Supreme Court had any effect. Two-Thirds Of Americans Can’t Name ONE Supreme Court Justice (POLL)

[junior chįmp]

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html

Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.

Don't forget the Supreme Court. If Scalia had lived until November 2016, Trump would have lost.

I doubt the Supreme Court had any effect. Two-Thirds Of Americans Can’t Name ONE Supreme Court Justice (POLL)

Haha, good lord. Americans are even dumber than I thought, and that's saying something. Democracy is a failed experiment.

It gets worse:

From the article:

"Only one percent could name all nine members."

[junior chįmp]

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html

Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.

Don't forget the Supreme Court. If Scalia had lived until November 2016, Trump would have lost.

I doubt the Supreme Court had any effect. Two-Thirds Of Americans Can’t Name ONE Supreme Court Justice (POLL)

Haha, good lord. Americans are even dumber than I thought, and that's saying something. Democracy is a failed experiment.

It gets worse:

From the article:

"Only one percent could name all nine members."

So Atlas posters are in the top 1% of political awareness, yet people here continue to pretend irrelevant sh**t that we overreact to is going to matter to Generic American who will forget it in a week, assuming they even heard it to begin with.

Because ironically, the most informed voters are often the most badly misled:

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We're doomed

[junior chįmp]

The idea pushed by the pundits and those with "faith in the electorate" that American voters take the time to carefully consider and weigh facts and opinions in their mind before voting needs to die yesterday. It has zero basis in reality.

I gave up.on that after reading Larry Bartels book Democracy for Realists.

My favorite fact from that book is that 59% of American voters couldn't even name their own governor. Rotflmao at Atlasians thinking clowns like Walker are unbeatable cuz of muh name recognition and informed electorate

[junior chįmp]

most people I know vote on the issues

Here's how people actually vote:

1) Your either left or right politically

2) You adopt the positions of your party or political leanings the majority of the time without much thought

3) You then seek out information from your preffered biased sources to justify a position on an issue you know nothing about

4) But you never actually give a shìt if the issue is achieved and never check up on it again (notice Trumps base doesn't care he failed to build the wall)

[junior chįmp]

most people I know vote on the issues

Here's how people actually vote:

1) Your either left or right politically

2) You adopt the positions of your party or political leanings the majority of the time without much thought

3) You then seek out information from your preffered biased sources to justify a position on an issue you know nothing about

4) But you never actually give a shìt if the issue is achieved and never check up on it again (notice Trumps base doesn't care he failed to build the wall)

- Actually, no most conservatives I know just like me are mad at Republicans for not cutting spending , and mad at Trump for imposing Tariffs.


- Under Obama most my friends who were liberal were mad at Obama for continuing Bush's Foreign Policy



Most of the people I know get their news from PBS

Majority of voters don't actually care and will continue to vote for their party. GOP has never cut spending yet they keep winning elections and they still dominate the political narrative today ammasing the most power they've had in a century.

Voters will say their angry but they probably get more pissed at missing the new episode of Storage Wars on TV or WalMart being out of stock of their favorite lard.

Being politically active in this country is sadomasochism if you really care about the issues

[junior chįmp]

most people I know vote on the issues

Here's how people actually vote:

1) Your either left or right politically

2) You adopt the positions of your party or political leanings the majority of the time without much thought

3) You then seek out information from your preffered biased sources to justify a position on an issue you know nothing about

4) But you never actually give a shìt if the issue is achieved and never check up on it again (notice Trumps base doesn't care he failed to build the wall)

^^ Pretty much. This is the not-so-secret secret of the American electorate, and it's something a lot of people not only disagree with but sometimes find objectionable. They can't handle that elections are driven by legions of dumb people and partisan zombies who will do whatever it takes to rationalize their pre-determined choices.

I think there are exceptions - anything involving people will have many exceptions, but this explains most of the behavior.

This is a decent article that touches on the issue somewhat:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/opinion/trump-republicans.html

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Unfortunately it really is that simple for many, many people.

No offense to OSR, but I'm going to take the studies, polls and general behavior of elections on a macroscopic view to his anecdotal evidence - evidence that he could just as easily have misinterpreted (who is to say these people wouldn't have rationalized their choices a differently in another context?). I think it's fair to say that OSR fits into the category of people who may take umbrage with the idea that people on a mass scale really don't make good, objective and sound decisions.

Even though Trump's base is dumb as hell and most voters are clueless....there is one positive though about the American political system:

American politics is led by the intransigent minority. A small level, about 1% - 3% of the total population, which basically forces the entire population to have to submit to their political preferences.

The majority of Americans voters just blindly vote for the same party every election but they don't actually care that much about what gets legislated. Policy and legislation is actually dictated by the small intransigent minority that is very politically and civically active. This is why Evangelicals can keep dictating abortion policies despite the fact the majority of the country doesn't agree with them (they are exceptionally civically active with a cult like dedication). Most of the important legislation in American history has come from Civic groups that were extremely active but never made up more than 3% of the total voting population. (Labor unions, Suffargette movement, Civil Rights movement,etc....)

This is why candidate quality matters so much in American elections. Majority don't care about the policies but that small civically engaged group that make up your grassroots do.