IN-SEN Gravis: Braun +1
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  IN-SEN Gravis: Braun +1
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Author Topic: IN-SEN Gravis: Braun +1  (Read 8324 times)
Predictor
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« on: May 17, 2018, 10:06:51 AM »

Braun - 45% (+1)
Donnelly - 44%
Uncertain - 11%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Indiana_Senate_May_17_2018.pdf
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2018, 10:10:57 AM »

Primary Bounce, just like the case of Morrisey
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mds32
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« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2018, 10:12:28 AM »

New Poll: Indiana Senator by Gravis Marketing on 2018-05-15

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Predictor
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2018, 10:13:59 AM »


I already have the full source linked in the initial post.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2018, 10:14:43 AM »

Told you guys. This is Bayh 2.0, R+10 election day.  Where are those mocking me now?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2018, 10:14:59 AM »

I was actually expecting a bit worse for Donnelly. Not a bad poll, but obviously a toss up.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2018, 10:18:30 AM »

Told you guys. This is Bayh 2.0, R+10 election day.  Where are those mocking me now?

Bayh was a retread, just like the case of Pawlenty.  And the GOP aren't winning MN either. But, Donnelly isn't ethically challenged like Evan Bayh, John Edwards or Ted Strickland.

MO is gonna be the bellweather, and if the GOP don't win MO, they're not winning the Senate.
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mds32
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2018, 10:27:26 AM »


I already have the full source linked in the initial post.


That was just linking the post to the site's poll tracker is all
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2018, 10:36:29 AM »

Great poll. Victory for Braun.
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mds32
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2018, 10:38:56 AM »

The Gravis Indiana poll is interesting.

SoS Race: Lawson (R) 33%, Harper (D) 23%, Rutherford (L) 10%, Wolfe (G) 4%

Voters give Trump a 47/47 approval rating
Voters give Trump a 44/51 favorability rating

Iran Deal Decision: 41-35 Support
Tax Reform: 43/32 Support
Tarriffs: 40/40 Tie
Ban on Abortions After 20 Weeks: 51/36 Support
Ban on Abortions: 41/43 Oppose
LGBTQ Non-Discrimination Law: 60-24 Support
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2018, 10:40:13 AM »

Still a toss-up, though this is better than expected. Braun seems like a very strong candidate, but too many unknowns for me to be confident.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2018, 10:41:24 AM »

Senator Braun. Donnelly is losing in a sample where Trump isn't even above water...
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2018, 10:42:33 AM »

>Gravis
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2018, 10:44:02 AM »

Pence is very well respected in the state.  But, its a Trump presidency, and Red state Dems are less at risk than under a Hillary Clinton presidency.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2018, 10:44:26 AM »

Senator Braun. Donnelly is losing in a sample where Trump isn't even above water in...
Yep. People had the nerve to get at me when I rightly told everyone that Rokita and Messer imploding was the worst news for Donnelly.
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Predictor
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2018, 10:49:13 AM »

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2018, 10:56:06 AM »

Besides the usual Gravis warning, this poll suggests what we already know - Donnelly is the most at risk incumbent of the cycle.

Also, Trump has regularly been tied or break even on approvals in Indiana, so that number ain't dem friendly at all.
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mds32
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« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2018, 10:58:17 AM »

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval
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Kodak
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« Reply #18 on: May 17, 2018, 11:00:34 AM »

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval
What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #19 on: May 17, 2018, 11:01:16 AM »

Tossup before primary, Tossup after. Not a good poll for Donnelly, but also not a super great poll for Braun. This one will be close.

Some of the crosstabs were interesting.
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YE
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« Reply #20 on: May 17, 2018, 11:02:35 AM »

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval
What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.
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mds32
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« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2018, 11:05:21 AM »

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval
What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

It could have been people just liking Donnelly over his two "main" opponents. But now that there is a different opponent who is targeting Donnelly and not fellow Republicans he could be seeing a negative effect on his approvals.
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mds32
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« Reply #22 on: May 17, 2018, 11:06:35 AM »

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval
What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

I don't see CNN or CBS polling there right now. We have to take what we can get.
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Predictor
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« Reply #23 on: May 17, 2018, 11:07:01 AM »

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval
What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.
It's a bit more complicated than that, kiddo.
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Blair
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« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2018, 11:07:16 AM »

Pence is very well respected in the state.  But, its a Trump presidency, and Red state Dems are less at risk than under a Hillary Clinton presidency.

I remember when it looked like Pence would face a very tough fight for re-election in 2016, how times change.

Overall, I've always thought that Donnelly is by far the most vulnerable D facing re-election, and Braun is certainly a good candidate
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