IN-SEN Gravis: Braun +1
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #75 on: May 17, 2018, 11:10:37 PM »

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html


Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.
Don't forget the Supreme Court. If Scalia had lived until November 2016, Trump would have lost.

I doubt the Supreme Court had any effect. Two-Thirds Of Americans Can’t Name ONE Supreme Court Justice (POLL)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #76 on: May 17, 2018, 11:13:58 PM »

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html


Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.
Don't forget the Supreme Court. If Scalia had lived until November 2016, Trump would have lost.

I doubt the Supreme Court had any effect. Two-Thirds Of Americans Can’t Name ONE Supreme Court Justice (POLL)

Haha, good lord. Americans are even dumber than I thought, and that's saying something. Democracy is a failed experiment.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #77 on: May 17, 2018, 11:16:59 PM »

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html


Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.
Don't forget the Supreme Court. If Scalia had lived until November 2016, Trump would have lost.

I doubt the Supreme Court had any effect. Two-Thirds Of Americans Can’t Name ONE Supreme Court Justice (POLL)

Haha, good lord. Americans are even dumber than I thought, and that's saying something. Democracy is a failed experiment.

It gets worse:

From the article:

"Only one percent could name all nine members."
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IceSpear
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« Reply #78 on: May 17, 2018, 11:18:28 PM »

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html


Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.
Don't forget the Supreme Court. If Scalia had lived until November 2016, Trump would have lost.

I doubt the Supreme Court had any effect. Two-Thirds Of Americans Can’t Name ONE Supreme Court Justice (POLL)

Haha, good lord. Americans are even dumber than I thought, and that's saying something. Democracy is a failed experiment.

It gets worse:

From the article:

"Only one percent could name all nine members."

So Atlas posters are in the top 1% of political awareness, yet people here continue to pretend irrelevant sh**t that we overreact to is going to matter to Generic American who will forget it in a week, assuming they even heard it to begin with.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #79 on: May 17, 2018, 11:26:41 PM »

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html


Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.
Don't forget the Supreme Court. If Scalia had lived until November 2016, Trump would have lost.

I doubt the Supreme Court had any effect. Two-Thirds Of Americans Can’t Name ONE Supreme Court Justice (POLL)

Haha, good lord. Americans are even dumber than I thought, and that's saying something. Democracy is a failed experiment.

It gets worse:

From the article:

"Only one percent could name all nine members."

So Atlas posters are in the top 1% of political awareness, yet people here continue to pretend irrelevant sh**t that we overreact to is going to matter to Generic American who will forget it in a week, assuming they even heard it to begin with.

Because ironically, the most informed voters are often the most badly misled:

Quote
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We're doomed
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IceSpear
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« Reply #80 on: May 17, 2018, 11:46:07 PM »

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html


Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.
Don't forget the Supreme Court. If Scalia had lived until November 2016, Trump would have lost.

I doubt the Supreme Court had any effect. Two-Thirds Of Americans Can’t Name ONE Supreme Court Justice (POLL)

Haha, good lord. Americans are even dumber than I thought, and that's saying something. Democracy is a failed experiment.

It gets worse:

From the article:

"Only one percent could name all nine members."

So Atlas posters are in the top 1% of political awareness, yet people here continue to pretend irrelevant sh**t that we overreact to is going to matter to Generic American who will forget it in a week, assuming they even heard it to begin with.

Because ironically, the most informed voters are often the most badly misled:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

We're doomed

The idea pushed by the pundits and those with "faith in the electorate" that American voters take the time to carefully consider and weigh facts and opinions in their mind before voting needs to die yesterday. It has zero basis in reality.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #81 on: May 18, 2018, 12:09:58 AM »



The idea pushed by the pundits and those with "faith in the electorate" that American voters take the time to carefully consider and weigh facts and opinions in their mind before voting needs to die yesterday. It has zero basis in reality.

I gave up.on that after reading Larry Bartels book Democracy for Realists.

My favorite fact from that book is that 59% of American voters couldn't even name their own governor. Rotflmao at Atlasians thinking clowns like Walker are unbeatable cuz of muh name recognition and informed electorate
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« Reply #82 on: May 18, 2018, 12:12:40 AM »

most people I know vote on the issues
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #83 on: May 18, 2018, 12:22:29 AM »


Here's how people actually vote:

1) Your either left or right politically

2) You adopt the positions of your party or political leanings the majority of the time without much thought

3) You then seek out information from your preffered biased sources to justify a position on an issue you know nothing about

4) But you never actually give a shìt if the issue is achieved and never check up on it again (notice Trumps base doesn't care he failed to build the wall)
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Computer89
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« Reply #84 on: May 18, 2018, 12:24:50 AM »


Here's how people actually vote:

1) Your either left or right politically

2) You adopt the positions of your party or political leanings the majority of the time without much thought

3) You then seek out information from your preffered biased sources to justify a position on an issue you know nothing about

4) But you never actually give a shìt if the issue is achieved and never check up on it again (notice Trumps base doesn't care he failed to build the wall)


- Actually, no most of my friends(and my dad's friends) who are conservative are mad at Republicans for not cutting spending , and mad at Trump for imposing Tariffs.


- Under Obama most my friends(and my dad's friends) who were liberal were mad at Obama for continuing Bush's Foreign Policy



Most of the people I know get their news from PBS
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Virginiá
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« Reply #85 on: May 18, 2018, 12:29:51 AM »


Here's how people actually vote:

1) Your either left or right politically

2) You adopt the positions of your party or political leanings the majority of the time without much thought

3) You then seek out information from your preffered biased sources to justify a position on an issue you know nothing about

4) But you never actually give a shìt if the issue is achieved and never check up on it again (notice Trumps base doesn't care he failed to build the wall)

^^ Pretty much. This is the not-so-secret secret of the American electorate, and it's something a lot of people not only disagree with but sometimes find objectionable. They can't handle that elections are driven by legions of dumb people and partisan zombies who will do whatever it takes to rationalize their pre-determined choices.

I think there are exceptions - anything involving people will have many exceptions, but this explains most of the behavior.

This is a decent article that touches on the issue somewhat:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/opinion/trump-republicans.html

Quote
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Unfortunately it really is that simple for many, many people.

No offense to OSR, but I'm going to take the studies, polls and general behavior of elections on a macroscopic view to his anecdotal evidence - evidence that he could just as easily have misinterpreted (who is to say these people wouldn't have rationalized their choices a differently in another context?). I think it's fair to say that OSR fits into the category of people who may take umbrage with the idea that people on a mass scale really don't make good, objective and sound decisions.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #86 on: May 18, 2018, 12:33:24 AM »


Here's how people actually vote:

1) Your either left or right politically

2) You adopt the positions of your party or political leanings the majority of the time without much thought

3) You then seek out information from your preffered biased sources to justify a position on an issue you know nothing about

4) But you never actually give a shìt if the issue is achieved and never check up on it again (notice Trumps base doesn't care he failed to build the wall)


- Actually, no most conservatives I know just like me are mad at Republicans for not cutting spending , and mad at Trump for imposing Tariffs.


- Under Obama most my friends who were liberal were mad at Obama for continuing Bush's Foreign Policy



Most of the people I know get their news from PBS

Majority of voters don't actually care and will continue to vote for their party. GOP has never cut spending yet they keep winning elections and they still dominate the political narrative today ammasing the most power they've had in a century.

Voters will say their angry but they probably get more pissed at missing the new episode of Storage Wars on TV or WalMart being out of stock of their favorite lard.

Being politically active in this country is sadomasochism if you really care about the issues
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Computer89
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« Reply #87 on: May 18, 2018, 12:41:47 AM »


Here's how people actually vote:

1) Your either left or right politically

2) You adopt the positions of your party or political leanings the majority of the time without much thought

3) You then seek out information from your preffered biased sources to justify a position on an issue you know nothing about

4) But you never actually give a shìt if the issue is achieved and never check up on it again (notice Trumps base doesn't care he failed to build the wall)


- Actually, no most conservatives I know just like me are mad at Republicans for not cutting spending , and mad at Trump for imposing Tariffs.


- Under Obama most my friends who were liberal were mad at Obama for continuing Bush's Foreign Policy



Most of the people I know get their news from PBS

Majority of voters don't actually care and will continue to vote for their party. GOP has never cut spending yet they keep winning elections and they still dominate the political narrative today ammasing the most power they've had in a century.

Voters will say their angry but they probably get more pissed at missing the new episode of Storage Wars on TV or WalMart being out of stock of their favorite lard.

Being politically active in this country is sadomasochism if you really care about the issues


- Yes Cause of the Lesser of Two Evil reasons. We all think the dems are even worse thats why we prefer the GOP as a whole.


- When the Blazers got swept I got super pissed, but that does not mean I dont get pissed about policy failures too.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #88 on: May 18, 2018, 12:54:39 AM »


Here's how people actually vote:

1) Your either left or right politically

2) You adopt the positions of your party or political leanings the majority of the time without much thought

3) You then seek out information from your preffered biased sources to justify a position on an issue you know nothing about

4) But you never actually give a shìt if the issue is achieved and never check up on it again (notice Trumps base doesn't care he failed to build the wall)

^^ Pretty much. This is the not-so-secret secret of the American electorate, and it's something a lot of people not only disagree with but sometimes find objectionable. They can't handle that elections are driven by legions of dumb people and partisan zombies who will do whatever it takes to rationalize their pre-determined choices.

I think there are exceptions - anything involving people will have many exceptions, but this explains most of the behavior.

This is a decent article that touches on the issue somewhat:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/opinion/trump-republicans.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Unfortunately it really is that simple for many, many people.

No offense to OSR, but I'm going to take the studies, polls and general behavior of elections on a macroscopic view to his anecdotal evidence - evidence that he could just as easily have misinterpreted (who is to say these people wouldn't have rationalized their choices a differently in another context?). I think it's fair to say that OSR fits into the category of people who may take umbrage with the idea that people on a mass scale really don't make good, objective and sound decisions.

Even though Trump's base is dumb as hell and most voters are clueless....there is one positive though about the American political system:

American politics is led by the intransigent minority. A small level, about 1% - 3% of the total population, which basically forces the entire population to have to submit to their political preferences.

The majority of Americans voters just blindly vote for the same party every election but they don't actually care that much about what gets legislated. Policy and legislation is actually dictated by the small intransigent minority that is very politically and civically active. This is why Evangelicals can keep dictating abortion policies despite the fact the majority of the country doesn't agree with them (they are exceptionally civically active with a cult like dedication). Most of the important legislation in American history has come from Civic groups that were extremely active but never made up more than 3% of the total voting population. (Labor unions, Suffargette movement, Civil Rights movement,etc....)

This is why candidate quality matters so much in American elections. Majority don't care about the policies but that small civically engaged group that make up your grassroots do.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #89 on: May 18, 2018, 02:24:53 AM »

This is close to the result that I expect. Granted, it's gravis, but I don't think this poll is inaccurate.

It'd be a shame for Donnelly to go, though. We have way too much polarization in Congress, and Donnelly is one of the few people who works with the other side. Braun looks like he will just be a reliable Republican vote, which we already have far too much of in Congress.

You must be kidding.  You say you do not like polarization, but you support most of the Democrats.  If anything will create massive polarization, it would be a Democrat Senate driven by a Trump hating Democrat base squared off against Trump.

Please point out substantive examples of Donnelly working with Republicans.


Joe Donnelly has voted for most of Trump's appointees, and has voted for a ton of bills that mostly Republicans voted yes on. I don't have many examples off the top of my head, but he did support Trump's immigration plan, the 20 week abortion ban, & the banking bill. So he is clearly a bipartisan senator.

You can see his voting record here: https://voteview.com/person/20717/joe-donnelly

He is also ranked 4th most bipartisan according to Richard Lugar Center (meaning he seeks out a lot of GOP co-sponsors on his bills) http://www.thelugarcenter.org/ourwork-Bipartisan-Index.html

Also I mostly support democrats (right now) because I don't like when one party has control of everything, Trump is potentially dangerous when not left in check, Republicans are becoming extremists on immigration, and the tax bill & health care bill were incredibly poorly done - many Republicans did not like these bills (as shown by Conor Lamb & Tipinerni getting a significant amount of Republican defections). I will probably not be so enthusiastic about voting dem if they keep moving to the left.

Also, the 2018 Republican Senate candidates are quite poor too... Bob Hugin seems fairly good and I like John James, but they are otherwise crummy, grandstanding, far right hacks. Braun doesn't seem so bad, but Donnelly is a fine person and doesn't deserve to lose re-election.

I am a swing voter; you are such a big GOP hack that you would have voted Roy Moore instead of Doug Jones. You are a small, polarized minority. Not even far right Alabama voted for Roy Moore, so you are a special sort of polarized loony. I know your type very well - both of my parents are just like you. I love my parents but they are a special type of insane when it comes to politics.


Well Donnelly (in a similar manner to Manchin and Collins) votes with his party on everything that matters. He would never be the 50th vote for a GOP bill. He’s taken some token votes against his party but the same can be said of Collins and Murkowski (with the exception that Collins and Murkowski made one vote against the AHCA that was substantial and against the party line). Voting to confirm reasonable nominees is really not bipartisan just the Democrats have decided they don’t want anyone running the country if a Republican is president. Even fking McConnell voted for most of Obama’s nominees both times and he’s as big of a partisan hack swamp creature as there is.

The reality is there is no such thing as a bipartisan or moderate senator in this day and age. Only rarely will anyone truly buck the party line or support or sponsor something his or her party does not support. Donnelly is just another fake moderate like all the other senators from the wrong color state who try and play at working across the aisle sometimes.

It is perfectly reasonable to prefer Donnelly to Braun or policy or even just to oppose Trump. But it’s a bit disingenuous to suggest that Donnelly has done anything to deserve moderate accolades, just as the same argument would be disingenuous if applied to practically any other senator. MAYBE you could argue for Collins being moderate but the truth is she’s a hack at heart who supports abortion and gay rights and is saavy enough not to piss off her constituents. And she’s the closest thing there is right now.

Also I think Braun will win this once Pence campaigns for him. Indiana is really tough territory for the Dems and unless Braun has a Mourdock moment or a big ass skeleton in his closet I think Donnelly just got really unlucky on this one. I think he could’ve capitalized on either Rokita or Messer’s negativity and unpopularity but Braun is so formless and Ill-defined he kind of reminds me of Todd Young. Nothing really to attack with him, he will run on being a generic pro trump outsider with strong support from the establishment and plenty of money. He’s exactly the kind of candidate that a brandless and bland but positive figure like Donnelly will struggle with. The upside to being bland is that fewer people dislike you, allowing you to beat more negative opponents among swing voters. The downside is it is harder to build a personal brand necessary to beat an amorphous R blob like Braun.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #90 on: May 18, 2018, 05:23:43 AM »

As of right now, Braun has the advantage in my opinion. The undecideds are soft Republicans who will default to an inoffensive Republican unless Braun gives them a reason not to.

Mourdoch gave them a reason to vote for Donnelly.
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« Reply #91 on: May 18, 2018, 08:17:41 AM »


3/51 republicans voted against a war criminal or would have if not for health (McCain) = 5.8% chance he wouldn't vote for a war criminal. Which is greater than the 0.0% chance from Donnelly.
what? um... you must see the faulty logic... after all, braun would likely be a standard trumplican. Also, as bad as torture is, I think giving the rich more tax cuts will likely have more widespread bad effects pon our country

I don't. Tax cuts can be repealed or tweaked. Tacit acceptance of torture can't.
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« Reply #92 on: May 18, 2018, 09:12:13 AM »

Why would Braun vote against Gina Haspel? He's not a moderate, he's a semi-Trumpist who is quite conservative.
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« Reply #93 on: May 18, 2018, 11:01:41 AM »

Why would Braun vote against Gina Haspel? He's not a moderate, he's a semi-Trumpist who is quite conservative.

Saying Donnelly deserves to lose after voting for a war crimal ≠ saying Braun would be better.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #94 on: May 18, 2018, 03:46:14 PM »


3/51 republicans voted against a war criminal or would have if not for health (McCain) = 5.8% chance he wouldn't vote for a war criminal. Which is greater than the 0.0% chance from Donnelly.
what? um... you must see the faulty logic... after all, braun would likely be a standard trumplican. Also, as bad as torture is, I think giving the rich more tax cuts will likely have more widespread bad effects pon our country

I don't. Tax cuts can be repealed or tweaked. Tacit acceptance of torture can't.
that was a bad example, braun would have voted haspel anyway
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« Reply #95 on: May 18, 2018, 04:13:13 PM »


3/51 republicans voted against a war criminal or would have if not for health (McCain) = 5.8% chance he wouldn't vote for a war criminal. Which is greater than the 0.0% chance from Donnelly.
what? um... you must see the faulty logic... after all, braun would likely be a standard trumplican. Also, as bad as torture is, I think giving the rich more tax cuts will likely have more widespread bad effects pon our country

I don't. Tax cuts can be repealed or tweaked. Tacit acceptance of torture can't.
that was a bad example, braun would have voted haspel anyway

I'm going to direct you to this:
Why would Braun vote against Gina Haspel? He's not a moderate, he's a semi-Trumpist who is quite conservative.

Saying Donnelly deserves to lose after voting for a war crimal ≠ saying Braun would be better.

I understand that our two party system necessitates making ethical compromises in the voting booth, but ultimately, every voter must draw the line at what he or she seems an appropriate compromise. My line is voting to confirm a person who I very much consider to be a war criminal. If I still lived in Indiana, I'd leave the Senate race blank or vote for the green party candidate, if there is one
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« Reply #96 on: May 18, 2018, 04:46:39 PM »


3/51 republicans voted against a war criminal or would have if not for health (McCain) = 5.8% chance he wouldn't vote for a war criminal. Which is greater than the 0.0% chance from Donnelly.
what? um... you must see the faulty logic... after all, braun would likely be a standard trumplican. Also, as bad as torture is, I think giving the rich more tax cuts will likely have more widespread bad effects pon our country

I don't. Tax cuts can be repealed or tweaked. Tacit acceptance of torture can't.
that was a bad example, braun would have voted haspel anyway

I'm going to direct you to this:
Why would Braun vote against Gina Haspel? He's not a moderate, he's a semi-Trumpist who is quite conservative.

Saying Donnelly deserves to lose after voting for a war crimal ≠ saying Braun would be better.

I understand that our two party system necessitates making ethical compromises in the voting booth, but ultimately, every voter must draw the line at what he or she seems an appropriate compromise. My line is voting to confirm a person who I very much consider to be a war criminal. If I still lived in Indiana, I'd leave the Senate race blank or vote for the green party candidate, if there is one
well, sadly, in our current that is the equivalent of throwing away your vote.
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« Reply #97 on: May 19, 2018, 01:23:23 PM »

Looks about right. I think this will be the closest race of the night.
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« Reply #98 on: May 19, 2018, 07:26:04 PM »

[Snip - this has gotten way too long!]
well, sadly, in our current that is the equivalent of throwing away your vote.

There are plenty of Democratic-leaning voters who'd refuse to vote for a pro-life candidate or a gun control candidate or any number of other "things." The Haspel vote is my "thing." I'm a single issue voter on torture and to me, it's worth a protest vote.
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« Reply #99 on: May 20, 2018, 01:55:12 PM »


Here's how people actually vote:

1) Your either left or right politically

2) You adopt the positions of your party or political leanings the majority of the time without much thought

3) You then seek out information from your preffered biased sources to justify a position on an issue you know nothing about

4) But you never actually give a shìt if the issue is achieved and never check up on it again (notice Trumps base doesn't care he failed to build the wall)

^^ Pretty much. This is the not-so-secret secret of the American electorate, and it's something a lot of people not only disagree with but sometimes find objectionable. They can't handle that elections are driven by legions of dumb people and partisan zombies who will do whatever it takes to rationalize their pre-determined choices.

I think there are exceptions - anything involving people will have many exceptions, but this explains most of the behavior.

This is a decent article that touches on the issue somewhat:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/opinion/trump-republicans.html

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Unfortunately it really is that simple for many, many people.

No offense to OSR, but I'm going to take the studies, polls and general behavior of elections on a macroscopic view to his anecdotal evidence - evidence that he could just as easily have misinterpreted (who is to say these people wouldn't have rationalized their choices a differently in another context?). I think it's fair to say that OSR fits into the category of people who may take umbrage with the idea that people on a mass scale really don't make good, objective and sound decisions.

Even though Trump's base is dumb as hell and most voters are clueless....there is one positive though about the American political system:

American politics is led by the intransigent minority. A small level, about 1% - 3% of the total population, which basically forces the entire population to have to submit to their political preferences.

The majority of Americans voters just blindly vote for the same party every election but they don't actually care that much about what gets legislated. Policy and legislation is actually dictated by the small intransigent minority that is very politically and civically active. This is why Evangelicals can keep dictating abortion policies despite the fact the majority of the country doesn't agree with them (they are exceptionally civically active with a cult like dedication). Most of the important legislation in American history has come from Civic groups that were extremely active but never made up more than 3% of the total voting population. (Labor unions, Suffargette movement, Civil Rights movement,etc....)

This is why candidate quality matters so much in American elections. Majority don't care about the policies but that small civically engaged group that make up your grassroots do.

this is also why turnout is key; campaigns are not going to be able to flip many voters from the other party (Obama-Trump voters in the rust belt were looking for a reason to vote GOP), so you simply need to increase your turnout through rhetoric/inflammatory statements
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