IN-SEN Gravis: Braun +1

[Coastal Elitist]

This poll shows that this race is a tossup. Neither candidate is at 50% and like most elections it will come down to who Independents vote for. Donnelly is leading among Independents in this poll and if he wins Independent voters by the same amount that he is currently leading he will win the election. I would say that Donnelly is still favored, since he leads among Independents.

[brand_allen]

So Gravis Marketing would have you believe that Trump's favorability rating is higher in California, a state with a PVI of D+12, than in Indiana, a state with a PVI of R+9.

At least, that's what their California poll from last week showed. They found Trump with a 47/51% favorability rating.

Their Indiana poll out today has him at 44/51%.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[brand_allen]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

That's a typo. Donnelly's approval rating in April was 37/32%. So while his *net* approval fell from +5 to +1, his approval rating rose four points (from 37% to 41%).

[Politician]

So Gravis Marketing would have you believe that Trump's favorability rating is higher in California, a state with a PVI of D+12, than in Indiana, a state with a PVI of R+9.

At least, that's what their California poll from last week showed. They found Trump with a 47/51% favorability rating.

Their Indiana poll out today has him at 44/51%.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

LOL, people need to learn what a "junk poll" is. Gravis, Rasmussen, internals, Emerson, Zogby, etc.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

According to this forum, who isn’t a crappy pollster?

PPP, CNN, YouGov, Marist, Siena, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Trafalgar, Fox.

But muh Faux News

[Bidenworth2020]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

It's a bit more complicated than that, kiddo.

is it though?

[KingSweden]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

According to this forum, who isn’t a crappy pollster?

PPP, CNN, YouGov, Marist, Siena, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Trafalgar, Fox.

But muh Faux News

As I said earlier, Fox’s polling is pretty good. It can and should be distinguished from the remainder of the organization, especially its evening opinion programming

[Bidenworth2020]

He deserves to lose after voting to confirm a war criminal.

braun wouldnt do that?

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

He deserves to lose after voting to confirm a war criminal.

braun wouldnt do that?

3/51 republicans voted against a war criminal or would have if not for health (McCain) = 5.8% chance he wouldn't vote for a war criminal. Which is greater than the 0.0% chance from Donnelly.

[cvparty]

So Gravis Marketing would have you believe that Trump's favorability rating is higher in California, a state with a PVI of D+12, than in Indiana, a state with a PVI of R+9.

At least, that's what their California poll from last week showed. They found Trump with a 47/51% favorability rating.

Their Indiana poll out today has him at 44/51%.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

LOL, people need to learn what a "junk poll" is. Gravis, Rasmussen, internals, Emerson, Zogby, etc.

no a poll can't be junk if it fits your narrative!!!

[Arkansas Yankee]

This is close to the result that I expect. Granted, it's gravis, but I don't think this poll is inaccurate.

It'd be a shame for Donnelly to go, though. We have way too much polarization in Congress, and Donnelly is one of the few people who works with the other side. Braun looks like he will just be a reliable Republican vote, which we already have far too much of in Congress.

You must be kidding.  You say you do not like polarization, but you support most of the Democrats.  If anything will create massive polarization, it would be a Democrat Senate driven by a Trump hating Democrat base squared off against Trump.

Please point out substantive examples of Donnelly working with Republicans.

[Maxwell]

hmmmm generic ballot in Indiana (an R+huge state) is R+3

hmmmm...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This is close to the result that I expect. Granted, it's gravis, but I don't think this poll is inaccurate.

It'd be a shame for Donnelly to go, though. We have way too much polarization in Congress, and Donnelly is one of the few people who works with the other side. Braun looks like he will just be a reliable Republican vote, which we already have far too much of in Congress.

You must be kidding.  You say you do not like polarization, but you support most of the Democrats.  If anything will create massive polarization, it would be a Democrat Senate driven by a Trump hating Democrat base squared off against Trump.

Please point out substantive examples of Donnelly working with Republicans.

Joe Donnelly has voted for most of Trump's appointees, and has voted for a ton of bills that mostly Republicans voted yes on. I don't have many examples off the top of my head, but he did support Trump's immigration plan, the 20 week abortion ban, & the banking bill. So he is clearly a bipartisan senator.

You can see his voting record here: https://voteview.com/person/20717/joe-donnelly

He is also ranked 4th most bipartisan according to Richard Lugar Center (meaning he seeks out a lot of GOP co-sponsors on his bills) http://www.thelugarcenter.org/ourwork-Bipartisan-Index.html

Also I mostly support democrats (right now) because I don't like when one party has control of everything, Trump is potentially dangerous when not left in check, Republicans are becoming extremists on immigration, and the tax bill & health care bill were incredibly poorly done - many Republicans did not like these bills (as shown by Conor Lamb & Tipinerni getting a significant amount of Republican defections). I will probably not be so enthusiastic about voting dem if they keep moving to the left.

Also, the 2018 Republican Senate candidates are quite poor too... Bob Hugin seems fairly good and I like John James, but they are otherwise crummy, grandstanding, far right hacks. Braun doesn't seem so bad, but Donnelly is a fine person and doesn't deserve to lose re-election.

I am a swing voter; you are such a big GOP hack that you would have voted Roy Moore instead of Doug Jones. You are a small, polarized minority. Not even far right Alabama voted for Roy Moore, so you are a special sort of polarized loony. I know your type very well - both of my parents are just like you. I love my parents but they are a special type of insane when it comes to politics.

[UWS]

This is close to the result that I expect. Granted, it's gravis, but I don't think this poll is inaccurate.

It'd be a shame for Donnelly to go, though. We have way too much polarization in Congress, and Donnelly is one of the few people who works with the other side. Braun looks like he will just be a reliable Republican vote, which we already have far too much of in Congress.

You must be kidding.  You say you do not like polarization, but you support most of the Democrats.  If anything will create massive polarization, it would be a Democrat Senate driven by a Trump hating Democrat base squared off against Trump.

Please point out substantive examples of Donnelly working with Republicans.

Joe Donnelly has voted for most of Trump's appointees, and has voted for a ton of bills that mostly Republicans voted yes on. I don't have many examples off the top of my head, but he did support Trump's immigration plan, the 20 week abortion ban, & the banking bill. So he is clearly a bipartisan senator.

You can see his voting record here: https://voteview.com/person/20717/joe-donnelly

He is also ranked 4th most bipartisan according to Richard Lugar Center (meaning he seeks out a lot of GOP co-sponsors on his bills) http://www.thelugarcenter.org/ourwork-Bipartisan-Index.html

Also I mostly support democrats (right now) because I don't like when one party has control of everything, Trump is potentially dangerous when not left in check, Republicans are becoming extremists on immigration, and the tax bill & health care bill were incredibly poorly done - many Republicans did not like these bills (as shown by Conor Lamb & Tipinerni getting a significant amount of Republican defections). I will probably not be so enthusiastic about voting dem if they keep moving to the left.

Also, the 2018 Republican Senate candidates are quite poor too... Bob Hugin seems fairly good and I like John James, but they are otherwise crummy, grandstanding, far right hacks. Braun doesn't seem so bad, but Donnelly is a fine person and doesn't deserve to lose re-election.

I am a swing voter; you are such a big GOP hack that you would have voted Roy Moore instead of Doug Jones. You are a small, polarized minority. Not even far right Alabama voted for Roy Moore, so you are a special sort of polarized loony. I know your type very well - both of my parents are just like you. I love my parents but they are a special type of insane when it comes to politics.

But Donnelly voted against tax cuts in 2017, supported Dodd-Frank and voted to raise the deficit 7 times at least. So I guess this record will demonstrate he’s too liberal for Indiana.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This is close to the result that I expect. Granted, it's gravis, but I don't think this poll is inaccurate.

It'd be a shame for Donnelly to go, though. We have way too much polarization in Congress, and Donnelly is one of the few people who works with the other side. Braun looks like he will just be a reliable Republican vote, which we already have far too much of in Congress.

You must be kidding.  You say you do not like polarization, but you support most of the Democrats.  If anything will create massive polarization, it would be a Democrat Senate driven by a Trump hating Democrat base squared off against Trump.

Please point out substantive examples of Donnelly working with Republicans.

Joe Donnelly has voted for most of Trump's appointees, and has voted for a ton of bills that mostly Republicans voted yes on. I don't have many examples off the top of my head, but he did support Trump's immigration plan, the 20 week abortion ban, & the banking bill. So he is clearly a bipartisan senator.

You can see his voting record here: https://voteview.com/person/20717/joe-donnelly

He is also ranked 4th most bipartisan according to Richard Lugar Center (meaning he seeks out a lot of GOP co-sponsors on his bills) http://www.thelugarcenter.org/ourwork-Bipartisan-Index.html

Also I mostly support democrats (right now) because I don't like when one party has control of everything, Trump is potentially dangerous when not left in check, Republicans are becoming extremists on immigration, and the tax bill & health care bill were incredibly poorly done - many Republicans did not like these bills (as shown by Conor Lamb & Tipinerni getting a significant amount of Republican defections). I will probably not be so enthusiastic about voting dem if they keep moving to the left.

Also, the 2018 Republican Senate candidates are quite poor too... Bob Hugin seems fairly good and I like John James, but they are otherwise crummy, grandstanding, far right hacks. Braun doesn't seem so bad, but Donnelly is a fine person and doesn't deserve to lose re-election.

I am a swing voter; you are such a big GOP hack that you would have voted Roy Moore instead of Doug Jones. You are a small, polarized minority. Not even far right Alabama voted for Roy Moore, so you are a special sort of polarized loony. I know your type very well - both of my parents are just like you. I love my parents but they are a special type of insane when it comes to politics.

But Donnelly voted against tax cuts in 2017, supported Dodd-Frank and voted to raise the deficit 7 times at least. So I guess this record will demonstrate he’s too liberal for Indiana.

The tax cuts was a poorly done bill in an ultra partisan process to use as a wedge issue against red state democrats. If the GOP cared about working people, they would have made the corporate tax rate 25%, not cut the top tax rate, and used those billions of dollars to expand the Earned Income Tax Credit, which would have massively help low-income family.

I was very excited for tax reform and it ended up being a pretty poorly done bill. It's polling terribly for a tax cut. Tax cuts should have widespread approval because everyone likes their taxes going down.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html

[IceSpear]

Not sure why there's so many scorching hot takes in this thread. Pretty much everyone thought this was a toss up, and a poll...shows it as a toss up.

And for the statistically illiterate, Braun +1 is no different than Donnelly +1.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, tilt D--->tilt D.

[Yellowhammer]

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html

Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why are people acting like this means doom for Donnelly? Don't get me wrong, he is definitely the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent but, with that in mind, I thought it would be much worse. At best for Donnelly it's a tossup, and he could very well still lose. But it could end up being closer than expected.

[ON Progressive]

All this poll shows is that it is a tossup, which is something we already knew. It's also Gravis, so the MOE is 1 billion.

[Bidenworth2020]

He deserves to lose after voting to confirm a war criminal.

braun wouldnt do that?

3/51 republicans voted against a war criminal or would have if not for health (McCain) = 5.8% chance he wouldn't vote for a war criminal. Which is greater than the 0.0% chance from Donnelly.

what? um... you must see the faulty logic... after all, braun would likely be a standard trumplican. Also, as bad as torture is, I think giving the rich more tax cuts will likely have more widespread bad effects pon our country

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Those cross tabs are really iffy

[junior chįmp]

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html

Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.

[Kodak]

Gravis is not as bad as everyone says and they are one of the only pollsters to actually poll these harder states, they also nailed the 2016 Nevada result btw, but all of that aside, here is what the 2016 Senate polls looked like:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html

Looks like they overestimated Bayh by 13 points.

Lol at comparing this to 2016....there is no boogie man Obama in the White House or Hillary on the ballot.

Those 2 were the only thing motivating GOP voters in 2016.

Don't forget the Supreme Court. If Scalia had lived until November 2016, Trump would have lost.