IN-SEN Gravis: Braun +1

[Sestak]

I take this poll with a grain of salt, but I do think Donnelly is the most vulnerable incumbent this cycle.

[KingSweden]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

I don't see CNN or CBS polling there right now. We have to take what we can get.

I mean, yeah, this. And Indiana has really strict rules around polling so this may be all we get for a while

Also:

I take this poll with a grain of salt, but I do think Donnelly is the most vulnerable incumbent this cycle.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Muy fantastico! Los Republicanos ganara en Indiana! Adios Senador Donnelly

[LimoLiberal]

Muy fantastico! Los Republicanos ganara en Indiana! Adios Senador Donnelly

The caucasity reeks from this post.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It seems far to say Donnelly and Nelson are the two most vulnerable senators

[Politician]

Muy fantastico! Los Republicanos ganara en Indiana! Adios Senador Donnelly

LMAO

Gravis is a junk poll though, hopefully some better polls come in a state that needs them.

[mds32]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

It's a bit more complicated than that, kiddo.

[john cage bubblegum]

With Braun getting nominated, I believe Donnelly is the most endangered incumbent.  Still, it's a tossup, and these close races tend to all break for the same party in non-neutral environments.

Also, it'd be nice to see a poll from someone other than Gravis.

[OneJ]

By the way Atlas has been hyping him up (and a little bit of my worrying about Donnelly as well) I assumed that Braun would be up a little more. This is going to be a very competitive race as expected, however this is Gravis so take this with caution.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This is close to the result that I expect. Granted, it's gravis, but I don't think this poll is inaccurate.

It'd be a shame for Donnelly to go, though. We have way too much polarization in Congress, and Donnelly is one of the few people who works with the other side. Braun looks like he will just be a reliable Republican vote, which we already have far too much of in Congress.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

According to this forum, who isn’t a crappy pollster?

[Xing]

McCaskill +4 -> Lean R, can’t assume McCaskill’s numbers will stay up, things could easily improve for the GOP

Donnelly -1 -> Donnelly’s finished, he’ll lose by like 10!

It seems like the idea of consistency is lost on many here, and a lot of people will stick to their narrative like glue. 2018 could end up being better for Republicans than the fundamentals currently suggest, but to cherry pick data to scrounge for tidbits of info that could be interpreted as good for Republicans, while ignoring the mountain of data suggesting that it will be an ugly year for Republicans is ridiculous. The fact is Democrats have made gains pretty much across the map, but especially in places like the Midwest, with a lot of Obama/Trump voters. Will that be enough for Donnelly to hold on? Maybe not, but this race is definitely a Toss-Up, maybe Tilt R.

tl;dr Make your narrative after looking at the data, not before.

[mds32]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

According to this forum, who isn’t a crappy pollster?

Truth

[MT Treasurer]

Pretty awful poll for Donnelly, but it’s still a Tossup (at least for now) simply because of the national environment.

[YE]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

According to this forum, who isn’t a crappy pollster?

PPP, CNN, YouGov, Marist, Siena, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Trafalgar, Fox.

[_]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

According to this forum, who isn’t a crappy pollster?

PPP, CNN, YouGov, Marist, Siena, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Trafalgar, Fox.

This is probably one of the funniest things about Atlas, they actually think Fox is decent for polling, but hate them for everything else

[Pollster]

Both good and bad signs for Donnelly here.

Good: Within MOE, winning >10% of Trump voters, strong lead with independents, most undecideds are Dem-leaning groups (racial minorities, young voters, women).

Bad: Obviously trailing, running behind Trump disapproval, low name rec for an incumbent Senator, Trump policies more popular than not.

Slight advantage Donnelly, but this is looking like the most competitive race of the cycle.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Gah, this may be Tilt R, really not feeling good about this

[Blackacre]

This IS concerning for Team Donnelley, but I'll have to see more data to change my perception of the race from Leans D. Gravis... is not the best. It's not Rasmussen or an internal, but it's not a strong enough singular data point.

[KingSweden]

Anyone remember that Gravis poll from April 11 that had Joe up by 10? Good times.

Those were both of the other Republican opponents Rotika and Messer. Braun stayed out of the fray and rightfully has a positive impression as well.

Donnelly's Approval rating meanwhile has slipped.
Change in Gravis Polls:
April - 47/32 Approval
May - 41/40 Approval

What has Donnelly done in the past month to warrant a 14-point swing in approval?

Gravis is a crappy pollster. It's as simple as that.

According to this forum, who isn’t a crappy pollster?

PPP, CNN, YouGov, Marist, Siena, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Trafalgar, Fox.

This is probably one of the funniest things about Atlas, they actually think Fox is decent for polling, but hate them for everything else

Well, Fox’s polling operation is solid. It’s worth distinguishing from the rest of the network

[Hoosier_Nick]

Gosh, I just want to point out that these crosstabs are so funky, and the entire poll seems weird. Almost every single one has at least a few things that seem really weird.

[KingSweden]

Gosh, I just want to point out that these crosstabs are so funky, and the entire poll seems weird. Almost every single one has at least a few things that seem really weird.

Well, it IS a Gravis Poll, and unfortunately he only data point available

[JG]

I honestly feel Donnelly is in much more danger than McCaskill is.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

He deserves to lose after voting to confirm a war criminal.

[Lamda]

He deserves to lose after voting to confirm a war criminal.

Which is still better than what you are going to get from Braun:100% voting record with Trump