NV-PPP: Rosen +2
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #25 on: May 05, 2018, 01:00:07 PM »

Heller has an uphill battle no doubt but I find the glee from red avatars over a democratic poll showing Heller within the margin of error to be hilarious. The fact that Heller is that close despite his horrible approvals shows he has room to grow as he brings republicans back into the fold. People seem to forget that Trump only lost the state by 2% in 2016 and the Democratic base in Nevada typically doesn't turn out in great numbers in midterms
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #26 on: May 05, 2018, 04:14:11 PM »

Heller has an uphill battle no doubt but I find the glee from red avatars over a democratic poll showing Heller within the margin of error to be hilarious. The fact that Heller is that close despite his horrible approvals shows he has room to grow as he brings republicans back into the fold. People seem to forget that Trump only lost the state by 2% in 2016 and the Democratic base in Nevada typically doesn't turn out in great numbers in midterms

Yeah, like when Harry Reid got blanched in 2010 because the base didn't turn out.

Oh wait, he overperformed polls by 7% LOL... and basically every other democrat besides Masto was underestimated by 4%+ in Nevada because Nevada polls suck.

Also, challengers generally start to do better later on because they start out with low name ID. No one in Nevada knows who Jacky Rosen is besides the constituents she briefly represented. Once her name ID goes up, she will probably be doing better. Same with GOP challenges in WV like Evan Jenkins.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2018, 12:28:43 PM »

I think Heller wins all counties except Clark but loses a close race anyway. Clark I can see going 15-20% against him and he’s not going to blow Rosen out in Washoe to make up for that.

I don’t think he will lose by that much overall though. Probably a 3-5 points loss.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #28 on: May 08, 2018, 04:39:28 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2018, 12:05:12 PM by Yellowhammer »

Why hasn't this race already been declared safe D?

This poll is so GOP hackish and ridiculous because Rosen MUST be leading by double digits because muh Heller muh muh weak incumbent. Of course Heller will get blanched by double digits because Nevada, with a PVI of D +1, is a titanium D brick in the blue wall, and any poll that shows Heller ahead is junk. This is literally SO OBVIOUS. LMAO.

Remember guys, Heller being down by 2 in a poll means he is actually down by 20. I'd say that he will lose by about 20 points, but I'm probably being way too generous because Rosen is such a great fit for progressive, titanium D Nevada that I think she can easily beat him by 40 points or so, holding him to about ~25-35% of the vote. I mean let's be real, the only people who will be voting for Heller are the Pawn Stars guys and the deplorable Mormon cowboys like Cliven Bundy. Lol.

Trump losing this state by 2 points really demonstrates how Republicans will never be able to win in the solid blue progressive stronghold of Nevada ever again. Republicans should just cut Heller loose and send their money to races that they might win like Texas and Tennessee, which are still just Likely D for now.
Anyone who believes otherwise is either a GOP hack or is lying to themselves.
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here2view
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« Reply #29 on: May 11, 2018, 06:51:03 AM »

From now on I will refer to him as Dean 'Blanche' A. Heller.
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Xing
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« Reply #30 on: May 11, 2018, 04:41:56 PM »

Why hasn't this race already been declared safe D?

This poll is so GOP hackish and ridiculous because Rosen MUST be leading by double digits because muh Heller muh muh weak incumbent. Of course Heller will get blanched by double digits because Nevada, with a PVI of D +1, is a titanium D brick in the blue wall, and any poll that shows Heller ahead is junk. This is literally SO OBVIOUS. LMAO.

Remember guys, Heller being down by 2 in a poll means he is actually down by 20. I'd say that he will lose by about 20 points, but I'm probably being way too generous because Rosen is such a great fit for progressive, titanium D Nevada that I think she can easily beat him by 40 points or so, holding him to about ~25-35% of the vote. I mean let's be real, the only people who will be voting for Heller are the Pawn Stars guys and the deplorable Mormon cowboys like Cliven Bundy. Lol.

Trump losing this state by 2 points really demonstrates how Republicans will never be able to win in the solid blue progressive stronghold of Nevada ever again. Republicans should just cut Heller loose and send their money to races that they might win like Texas and Tennessee, which are still just Likely D for now.
Anyone who believes otherwise is either a GOP hack or is lying to themselves.


Yeah, it’s much more believable that NV is no better than a Toss-Up for Democrats, and anyone who even so much as pushes this to Tilt D is an insufferable Democratic hack who is underestimating Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller. Even though Trump winning Wisconsin by .8% proves that it’s a red state, Trump losing Nevada by 2.4 doesn’t in any way suggest that it’s a blue state, since it went the same way in 1992. It may have been the first time since 1908 that a Republican won without Nevada, but I’m sure that’s just a coincidence. Demographics are only destiny in the Midwest.

I mean, even though polls in Nevada in the past consistently underestimated Democrats (even Berkeley), surely they HAVE to be right THIS year. And it’s amazing that Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller  is even REMOTELY close to Rosen! Just like it was amazing that Hagan even came within 10 points of beating Tillis. Nothing unreasonable about assuming an incumbent whose approval rating is way worse than Trump’s in his state could possibly do worse than Trump, especially since Democrats always do badly in midterms, and surely Democratic turnout in Nevada will be the same as it was in 2014.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #31 on: May 11, 2018, 04:45:48 PM »

Dean Heller is a completely safe & super strong incumbent. His approval rating of sub 30% shows that he is an UNSTOPPABLE TITAN that will smite any candidate who dares to challenge him. Liberals are FOOLS for thinking dems are favored in this state that Hillary only won by 2. There is no possible way republicans can do any worse than they did in 2016 because special elections are COMPLETE FAKE NEWS. And Heller is beautiful & unstoppable and a moderate (even if he hasn't ever made a moderate vote this Congress, he's a beautiful, precious moderate in my heart).
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Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
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« Reply #32 on: May 11, 2018, 04:56:21 PM »

Heller is a mormon rockstar and a moderate hero who will win by double digits. Democrats don't vote in midterms and Nevada is an R-leaning swing state. I KNOW Reid would have gotten Blanched in 2010 had Angle not been the nominee. Rosen is a horrible candidate and polls only show barely up. And Nevada polls are extremely accurate.


I forgot that he is a mormon. This changes my prediction from R+6 to R+10. NeverTrump mormons will vote hugely for Hellstorm Dean Heller. At this point, Rosen should just quit and run for dog catcher to save herself from embarrassment.
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OneJ
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« Reply #33 on: May 11, 2018, 05:32:24 PM »

Heller has an uphill battle no doubt but I find the glee from red avatars over a democratic poll showing Heller within the margin of error to be hilarious. The fact that Heller is that close despite his horrible approvals shows he has room to grow as he brings republicans back into the fold. People seem to forget that Trump only lost the state by 2% in 2016 and the Democratic base in Nevada typically doesn't turn out in great numbers in midterms

Don’t say that those red avatars didn’t warn you if Heller loses by more than five.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #34 on: May 11, 2018, 05:33:36 PM »

Why hasn't this race already been declared safe D?

This poll is so GOP hackish and ridiculous because Rosen MUST be leading by double digits because muh Heller muh muh weak incumbent. Of course Heller will get blanched by double digits because Nevada, with a PVI of D +1, is a titanium D brick in the blue wall, and any poll that shows Heller ahead is junk. This is literally SO OBVIOUS. LMAO.

Remember guys, Heller being down by 2 in a poll means he is actually down by 20. I'd say that he will lose by about 20 points, but I'm probably being way too generous because Rosen is such a great fit for progressive, titanium D Nevada that I think she can easily beat him by 40 points or so, holding him to about ~25-35% of the vote. I mean let's be real, the only people who will be voting for Heller are the Pawn Stars guys and the deplorable Mormon cowboys like Cliven Bundy. Lol.

Trump losing this state by 2 points really demonstrates how Republicans will never be able to win in the solid blue progressive stronghold of Nevada ever again. Republicans should just cut Heller loose and send their money to races that they might win like Texas and Tennessee, which are still just Likely D for now.
Anyone who believes otherwise is either a GOP hack or is lying to themselves.


Yeah, it’s much more believable that NV is no better than a Toss-Up for Democrats, and anyone who even so much as pushes this to Tilt D is an insufferable Democratic hack who is underestimating Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller. Even though Trump winning Wisconsin by .8% proves that it’s a red state, Trump losing Nevada by 2.4 doesn’t in any way suggest that it’s a blue state, since it went the same way in 1992. It may have been the first time since 1908 that a Republican won without Nevada, but I’m sure that’s just a coincidence. Demographics are only destiny in the Midwest.

I mean, even though polls in Nevada in the past consistently underestimated Democrats (even Berkeley), surely they HAVE to be right THIS year. And it’s amazing that Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller  is even REMOTELY close to Rosen! Just like it was amazing that Hagan even came within 10 points of beating Tillis. Nothing unreasonable about assuming an incumbent whose approval rating is way worse than Trump’s in his state could possibly do worse than Trump, especially since Democrats always do badly in midterms, and surely Democratic turnout in Nevada will be the same as it was in 2014.

What the Heller is wrong with you two? Tongue
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IceSpear
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« Reply #35 on: May 14, 2018, 01:41:29 AM »

Why hasn't this race already been declared safe D?

This poll is so GOP hackish and ridiculous because Rosen MUST be leading by double digits because muh Heller muh muh weak incumbent. Of course Heller will get blanched by double digits because Nevada, with a PVI of D +1, is a titanium D brick in the blue wall, and any poll that shows Heller ahead is junk. This is literally SO OBVIOUS. LMAO.

Remember guys, Heller being down by 2 in a poll means he is actually down by 20. I'd say that he will lose by about 20 points, but I'm probably being way too generous because Rosen is such a great fit for progressive, titanium D Nevada that I think she can easily beat him by 40 points or so, holding him to about ~25-35% of the vote. I mean let's be real, the only people who will be voting for Heller are the Pawn Stars guys and the deplorable Mormon cowboys like Cliven Bundy. Lol.

Trump losing this state by 2 points really demonstrates how Republicans will never be able to win in the solid blue progressive stronghold of Nevada ever again. Republicans should just cut Heller loose and send their money to races that they might win like Texas and Tennessee, which are still just Likely D for now.
Anyone who believes otherwise is either a GOP hack or is lying to themselves.

Why hasn't this race already been declared safe D?

This poll is so GOP hackish and ridiculous because Rosen MUST be leading by double digits because muh Heller muh muh weak incumbent. Of course Heller will get blanched by double digits because Nevada, with a PVI of D +1, is a titanium D brick in the blue wall, and any poll that shows Heller ahead is junk. This is literally SO OBVIOUS. LMAO.

Remember guys, Heller being down by 2 in a poll means he is actually down by 20. I'd say that he will lose by about 20 points, but I'm probably being way too generous because Rosen is such a great fit for progressive, titanium D Nevada that I think she can easily beat him by 40 points or so, holding him to about ~25-35% of the vote. I mean let's be real, the only people who will be voting for Heller are the Pawn Stars guys and the deplorable Mormon cowboys like Cliven Bundy. Lol.

Trump losing this state by 2 points really demonstrates how Republicans will never be able to win in the solid blue progressive stronghold of Nevada ever again. Republicans should just cut Heller loose and send their money to races that they might win like Texas and Tennessee, which are still just Likely D for now.
Anyone who believes otherwise is either a GOP hack or is lying to themselves.


Yeah, it’s much more believable that NV is no better than a Toss-Up for Democrats, and anyone who even so much as pushes this to Tilt D is an insufferable Democratic hack who is underestimating Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller. Even though Trump winning Wisconsin by .8% proves that it’s a red state, Trump losing Nevada by 2.4 doesn’t in any way suggest that it’s a blue state, since it went the same way in 1992. It may have been the first time since 1908 that a Republican won without Nevada, but I’m sure that’s just a coincidence. Demographics are only destiny in the Midwest.

I mean, even though polls in Nevada in the past consistently underestimated Democrats (even Berkeley), surely they HAVE to be right THIS year. And it’s amazing that Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller  is even REMOTELY close to Rosen! Just like it was amazing that Hagan even came within 10 points of beating Tillis. Nothing unreasonable about assuming an incumbent whose approval rating is way worse than Trump’s in his state could possibly do worse than Trump, especially since Democrats always do badly in midterms, and surely Democratic turnout in Nevada will be the same as it was in 2014.

Dean Heller is a completely safe & super strong incumbent. His approval rating of sub 30% shows that he is an UNSTOPPABLE TITAN that will smite any candidate who dares to challenge him. Liberals are FOOLS for thinking dems are favored in this state that Hillary only won by 2. There is no possible way republicans can do any worse than they did in 2016 because special elections are COMPLETE FAKE NEWS. And Heller is beautiful & unstoppable and a moderate (even if he hasn't ever made a moderate vote this Congress, he's a beautiful, precious moderate in my heart).

Heller is a mormon rockstar and a moderate hero who will win by double digits. Democrats don't vote in midterms and Nevada is an R-leaning swing state. I KNOW Reid would have gotten Blanched in 2010 had Angle not been the nominee. Rosen is a horrible candidate and polls only show barely up. And Nevada polls are extremely accurate.

LMAO.

I love Nevada threads.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #36 on: May 14, 2018, 01:43:00 AM »

But really guys, if even strong candidate Shelley Berkley couldn't defeat demigod Heller, it's obvious nobody can.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #37 on: May 14, 2018, 02:17:01 AM »

I know little else other than that 2006 NV Sen, 2010 NV Sen, and 2012 NV Sen are all reasons this shouldn't be declared DOA for Heller but it is most certainly still an uphill climb for his re-election and more likely than not that Rosen will win.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #38 on: May 14, 2018, 01:48:54 PM »

Heller is already doing worse than Heck at this point despite his fundraising/incumbency advantage and Rosen being a lesser-known candidate than CCM.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #39 on: May 14, 2018, 02:39:53 PM »

I know little else other than that 2006 NV Sen, 2010 NV Sen, and 2012 NV Sen are all reasons this shouldn't be declared DOA for Heller but it is most certainly still an uphill climb for his re-election and more likely than not that Rosen will win.

See everyone this is what reasonable commentary/analysis looks like
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President Johnson
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« Reply #40 on: May 14, 2018, 03:05:21 PM »

Heller is already doing worse than Heck at this point despite his fundraising/incumbency advantage and Rosen being a lesser-known candidate than CCM.

Plus a Republican year 2016, what 2018 is certainly not.
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Badger
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« Reply #41 on: May 21, 2018, 03:50:48 AM »

Heller won't get blanched I don't think unless the rural counties flip and Rosen isn't the kind that plays well there.

The rural Counties have something like 15 to 20% of the state's population. Their outcome really doesn't have anything to do with it.
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cvparty
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« Reply #42 on: May 21, 2018, 10:36:17 AM »

Obviously, Heller is going to win by double digits.
*tRIPLE
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #43 on: May 21, 2018, 03:54:27 PM »

Heller won't get blanched I don't think unless the rural counties flip and Rosen isn't the kind that plays well there.

The rural Counties have something like 15 to 20% of the state's population. Their outcome really doesn't have anything to do with it.
yes it does lol
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YE
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« Reply #44 on: May 21, 2018, 03:58:18 PM »

Heller won't get blanched I don't think unless the rural counties flip and Rosen isn't the kind that plays well there.

The rural Counties have something like 15 to 20% of the state's population. Their outcome really doesn't have anything to do with it.
yes it does lol

Outside of a crash in the mold of 2008, Dems can only do so well in Clark.
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NevadanAtHeart
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« Reply #45 on: May 22, 2018, 09:24:17 PM »

Heller won't get blanched I don't think unless the rural counties flip and Rosen isn't the kind that plays well there.

The rural Counties have something like 15 to 20% of the state's population. Their outcome really doesn't have anything to do with it.
yes it does lol

Outside of a crash in the mold of 2008, Dems can only do so well in Clark.

Washoe is usually won by the D's as well, no?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #46 on: May 22, 2018, 09:28:46 PM »

Heller won't get blanched I don't think unless the rural counties flip and Rosen isn't the kind that plays well there.

The rural Counties have something like 15 to 20% of the state's population. Their outcome really doesn't have anything to do with it.
yes it does lol

Outside of a crash in the mold of 2008, Dems can only do so well in Clark.

Washoe is usually won by the D's as well, no?

CCM won without Washoe. In fact, Berkley could've won even while losing Washoe by double digits if she didn't underperform in Clark.
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YE
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« Reply #47 on: May 22, 2018, 09:31:47 PM »

Heller won't get blanched I don't think unless the rural counties flip and Rosen isn't the kind that plays well there.

The rural Counties have something like 15 to 20% of the state's population. Their outcome really doesn't have anything to do with it.
yes it does lol

Outside of a crash in the mold of 2008, Dems can only do so well in Clark.

Washoe is usually won by the D's as well, no?

Yes. I should point out that CCM losing it still makes no sense given her past strength in Northern Nevada. Still, Washoe only has so many votes compared to Clark.
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kph14
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« Reply #48 on: May 23, 2018, 10:24:27 AM »

Quote
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That's weak, PPP.
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